Still historically low. There is a study/theory that says more open (less ice) Arctic water promotes more blocking. But if that was true where was all our blocking these past 20 years.
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Pattern Winter outlook 2022/2023
- Thread starter whatalife
- Start date
smast16
Member
This is where they come up with another 3 letter acronym to explain why their previous 3 letter acronym didn't pan out. IOD, PNA, PDO, MJO, SSW Etc etc.
severestorm
Member
It's almost a million square km above the 2011-2020 average.
Winter vs spring battle zone 
smast16
Member
Man I'm not sure I buy a full torch winter but it's not off the table unfortunately
You would have to bet for a warmer winter with the la nina still ongoing. I guess the one good aspect is we should see a better chance of very cold outbreaks (within the overall warm winter) that could also come with snow (..we can hope).
Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely — what does the future hold?
Meteorologists are forecasting a third consecutive year of La Niña. Some researchers say similar conditions could become more common as the planet warms.
smast16
Member
Itryatgolf
Member
Ben Knoll from twitter mentioned the euro and ukmet guidance going negative nao for at least first half of winter this upcoming winter. It would be nice to see that. Like I always say if we can get one winter storm, im content until the following winter. I feel that early if we are to see that scenario
You would think with 3 Niñas in a row that one should behave like a traditional one with lot of cold and storm chances the first half and then a warmup and early spring arriving in February
His model blend also shows well below normal snowfall for the winter.
Gotta build the snowpack to the north right? Good CAD source region …?! Dry cold CAD incoming
smast16
Member
That's a pretty classic LA Nina precip map.
Itryatgolf
Member
Our avg snow is only 5 inches a year in my area but me being optimistic hopes we see alot more than that. They say it only takes on storm to make up for a whole season or even two sometimes.
It’s just that these last two years have not acted like classic Niñas.
LickWx
Member
Yea winter hasn’t torched like a true nina really ! No 2012 yet .
iGRXY
Member
MJO is still the biggest driver of the pattern IMO. You get into favorable phases in the MJO and you get a storm like last year where most people got above average snowfall. On top of that it was quite cold for a good 6 week span of January- Mid February. Not quite sure what that time span will be this year but even La Niña generally gets some really cold outbreaks so it won’t surprise me to see another 3-6 week stretch of really good temperatures and increased snowfall chances.
Hard to believe we go all winter without at least 1 favorable period of a few weeks of some good chances for winter precip. And honestly we usually have a period in any winter but if the last two years are any indication of what’s to come.. I would be at least a little excited for that possibility. But also don’t forget .. more than likely we will torch at some point as well.. but hey that’s the name of the game in the south. If we could get that NAO block earlier than we did last year that could bode well for more impactful winter weather. 
I would say last December was a torch. 3rd warmest on record for KCLT and the last week saw lows everyday 5-10 warmer than average highs. A true Niña though would have seen warmth like that in February and that cold period the last 3 weeks of January and first half of February would have been before.