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Pattern Winter outlook 2022/2023

Chazwin

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Kicks and giggles!
From Joey mac Bravo!!


August 10, 2022

  • This is the first forecast idea for the upcoming 5-month HDD season.
  • The closest analog is 2010-11.


November_2022___March_2023_Forecast.png
Wait!!! He’s not calling for the east coast to be below normal? Blockbuster winter incoming!!!
 

Chazwin

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I did not at all take it that way! aka- preliminary thoughts..........
I’ve just been so use to him having the east coast at least 1-2 degrees below normal on all of his winter outlook maps. I really try not to bash the guy because I know he’s got a tough job, but it seems like he’s really struggled on his winter seasonal forecast the last decade. The last time I remember him being pretty dead on was the back to back years of 09-10 and 10-11.
 

Tarheel1

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Wait!!! He’s not calling for the east coast to be below normal? Blockbuster winter incoming!!!
I can 110% guarantee, he will have a forecast come out showing mid Atlantic and NE, with below normal temps and above normal snow, at some point, before November, or in his “final” outlook! He can’t not do it! Watch
 

slllord

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You know what's overdue in the SE US? A cold DEC, with some true Arctic Air dropping down. Hasn't really happened since 1989... We've had smaller outbreaks in 2010, and maybe some other years. But the last time CHA had a single digit low in December was in 1989. I have no idea about what ENSO pattern would be involved, but I think a cold Dec is worth a gamble. Yeah I know, that's called the Gambler's Fallacy, but surely one has to happen eventually. ;)
 

Myfrotho704_

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Going with N Dec/BN jan/AN Feb and March. Call me crazy but I think we break the warm December curse. Im
noticing a tendency already this summer we are continuing on what we did this past winter/spring and continue to get jet extensions and keep on dropping pacific lows in a similar style. It might not mean much, but the fact we are seeing the same thing still happen in a similar background state as last winter, is better then anything. But it’s worth noting a pattern now barely has any correlation to a winter pattern
 

Shawn

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I want to see how the high latitudes evolve this year. I believe there is a chance we could go big cold early with snow chances even as early as November. 11-12 lurks as a legit analog so dumpster fire is on the table.

Cmon' man the heats been killing my fruit production and I was holding out hope I could have a late season crop. It would make perfect sense for that to happen, though 😩
 

Lickwx

Ever hear the tragedy of Darth Plagueis the Wise?
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Cmon' man the heats been killing my fruit production and I was holding out hope I could have a late season crop. It would make perfect sense for that to happen, though 😩
No fruit this year . Big famine coming. Cricks will be a’freezin , crops are a’dyin, and people are a’starving.
 

NCSNOW

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Ill take a repeat of January 21 for every January going forward.
 

Itryatgolf

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Going with N Dec/BN jan/AN Feb and March. Call me crazy but I think we break the warm December curse. Im
noticing a tendency already this summer we are continuing on what we did this past winter/spring and continue to get jet extensions and keep on dropping pacific lows in a similar style. It might not mean much, but the fact we are seeing the same thing still happen in a similar background state as last winter, is better then anything. But it’s worth noting a pattern now barely has any correlation to a winter pattern
If jet extensions continue into winter, we possibly could have some opportunities of cold and winter weather. I still feel that the east based niña helped out also
 

iGRXY

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I think we will get a 6 week period of pretty below average temps from Mid Dec-Jan. Wouldn't surprise me to see a couple artic outbreaks over the span of 2 weeks during that period as well. I just hope we can squeak out a couple storms because I'm sure by February it will be above average.
 

MichaelJ

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I think the SE will have a near normal winter temperature wise when all is said and done. How we get there will be a cold Dec-late Jan and then a torch for the last half. I do think we are going to have a higher than normal snowfall for most of the SE in the traditional snow favored areas
 
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I think someone in the southeast will see novelty snow in November. December will be quiet until Christmas time. Someone in the SE will see a storm around Christmas. I think that’s will be an east coast blizzard in January. February the entire SE torches. Then a couple novelty events in March. I think ice could be a wild card this year for the Carolina’s.


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SENC

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Roughly every 10~20~30 years for a big Southern South East snow storm in Dec, (or two), we are due for another,.. (connected too the Sunspot Cycles/ or Solar Max & Min?) Or..

If I'm not mistaken those "Winters" had fairly much a inactive/Low Hurricane season(s) numbers.. Can Data back that up?
For example..
1989 had.. (With the SENC Blizzard) that Christmas..
Total storms11
Hurricanes7
Major hurricanes ( Cat. 3+)2

1978 Had (the Great Blizzard of 1978)..
Hurricanes ..
Total storms12
Hurricanes5
Major hurricanes ( Cat. 3+)2


1996 We had the "great Blizzard", severe nor'easter that paralyzed the United States East Coast with up to 4 feet of wind-driven snow from January 6 to January 8, 1996.

That year We had..

Total storms13, 1 unofficial
Hurricanes9
Major hurricanes ( Cat. 3+)6

Anyone care to compile that Data & dig deeper? Including the Solar Max & Min?

I cannot remember Whom was trying to do that on the "other" board.. He caught a Ban because it didn't they're Climate Global warming narrative..
 
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Rain Cold

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Roughly every 10~20~30 years for a big Southern South East snow storm in Dec, (or two), we are due for another,.. (connected too the Sunspot Cycles/ or Solar Max & Min?) Or..

If I'm not mistaken those "Winters" had fairly much a inactive/Low Hurricane season(s) numbers.. Can Data back that up?
For example..
1989 had.. (With the SENC Blizzard) that Christmas..
Total storms11
Hurricanes7
Major hurricanes ( Cat. 3+)2

1978 Had (the Great Blizzard of 1978)..
Hurricanes ..
Total storms12
Hurricanes5
Major hurricanes ( Cat. 3+)2


1996 We had the "great Blizzard", severe nor'easter that paralyzed the United States East Coast with up to 4 feet of wind-driven snow from January 6 to January 8, 1996.

That year We had..

Total storms13, 1 unofficial
Hurricanes9
Major hurricanes ( Cat. 3+)6

Anyone care to compile that Data & dig deeper? Including the Solar Max & Min?

I cannot remember Whom was trying to do that on the "other" board.. He caught a Ban because it didn't they're Climate Global warming narrative..
How'd ot look in 1999 when we had the January 2000 storm?
 

Chazwin

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If I remember correctly, a few winters ago, everyone was forecasting a frontloaded winter and February torch, and it never happened!
Really that is what the thinking has been for the last couple of winters because of how Niñas typically work out with cold Decembers, and first 3 weeks of January before the pattern breaks down and February goes full torch. With us having a 3rd straight Niña, I keep thinking that one these should follow that classic look. Interestingly, the last 3rd year Niña I can remember in 2000-01 saw a cold December, and first half of January before going above normal, but then went back below normal the last week of February as the Niña had started breaking down… November was below normal that season as well with much of the Carolinas outside the mountains getting a rare November snowfall with widespread 1-4” a few days before Thanksgiving.
 

Detective WX

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Roughly every 10~20~30 years for a big Southern South East snow storm in Dec, (or two), we are due for another,.. (connected too the Sunspot Cycles/ or Solar Max & Min?) Or..

If I'm not mistaken those "Winters" had fairly much a inactive/Low Hurricane season(s) numbers.. Can Data back that up?
For example..
1989 had.. (With the SENC Blizzard) that Christmas..
Total storms11
Hurricanes7
Major hurricanes ( Cat. 3+)2

1978 Had (the Great Blizzard of 1978)..
Hurricanes ..
Total storms12
Hurricanes5
Major hurricanes ( Cat. 3+)2


1996 We had the "great Blizzard", severe nor'easter that paralyzed the United States East Coast with up to 4 feet of wind-driven snow from January 6 to January 8, 1996.

That year We had..

Total storms13, 1 unofficial
Hurricanes9
Major hurricanes ( Cat. 3+)6

Anyone care to compile that Data & dig deeper? Including the Solar Max & Min?

I cannot remember Whom was trying to do that on the "other" board.. He caught a Ban because it didn't they're Climate Global warming narrative..
2013 (currently the benchmark for slowest year) jumps out with 14 Named, 2 Hurricane and no majors leading into the Snowjam and Valentine's week Snow/Ice Storm of '14.
 
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