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Pattern Winter outlook 2022/2023

Lickwx

Ever hear the tragedy of Darth Plagueis the Wise?
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Lets FULL send, our Winter to the #EU & Europe, they need it ya know.. 🥶🤡🥶🤧🥶
I sure hope so! Warm US , let Americans save on energy costs as it’s expensive . Europe can freeze , can’t be above average forever . They have been above average for well over a decade now. Western Europe that is .
 

Chazwin

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Here's the CFS for the next month. A good snow base in Siberia would really help the cold air intrusions this winter.

View attachment 121357
I get that Siberian snow cover can be an important factor, especially when patterns set up that promote a cross polar flow. However we’ve seen plenty of years recently when above average Siberian snow cover didn’t equate to below average winter temperatures in the southeast.
 

Rain Cold

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I get that Siberian snow cover can be an important factor, especially when patterns set up that promote a cross polar flow. However we’ve seen plenty of years recently when above average Siberian snow cover didn’t equate to below average winter temperatures in the southeast.
That's true, but all the same, personally I'll take the cryosphere as cold as with much snow pack I can get.
 

Lickwx

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That's true, but all the same, personally I'll take the cryosphere as cold as with much snow pack I can get.
Honestly seems almost every year though it’s got a deeper snowpack than normal . Too much though and we got a strong polar vortex
 
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I will say this. The flatter the Aleutian ridge, the more troughing on west coast. Ideally, we want it expansive to promote more ridging imo.
The strong Aleutian ridge has dumped a trough in the west and promoted a SER. At least from my untrained eye. Need low heights there to pump ridging on the west coast.
 

Itryatgolf

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The strong Aleutian ridge has dumped a trough in the west and promoted a SER. At least from my untrained eye. Need low heights there to pump ridging on the west coast.
I guess I meant to say poleward Aleutian ridge because we don't want a flat Aleutian ridge, which had alot to do with troughing as well. Ideally, an Aleutian low.
 

SimeonNC

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This is probably too early to say this but I wonder if a low ACE will affect winter this year, I saw something about it on the other board and it piqued my interest.

Also, there are so many factors at play here this year, third year Nina, the volcanic eruption and the atmospheric effects of it, as I said earlier the low ACE(unless we get like all of our named storms between now and November lol), along with the warm GOA waters.

My gut feeling says a year similar to last year, close to average with a period of a good pattern. Personally I would love a front-loaded winter but at the same time it's been several years since February brought something of note other than warmth.
 

cyclogent

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This is probably too early to say this but I wonder if a low ACE will affect winter this year, I saw something about it on the other board and it piqued my interest.

Also, there are so many factors at play here this year, third year Nina, the volcanic eruption and the atmospheric effects of it, as I said earlier the low ACE(unless we get like all of our named storms between now and November lol), along with the warm GOA waters.

My gut feeling says a year similar to last year, close to average with a period of a good pattern. Personally I would love a front-loaded winter but at the same time it's been several years since February brought something of note other than warmth.

Yeah, ACE scores are way low with very little heat being transported poleward via tropical activity this year, but all that oceanic heat has to go somewhere. Just speculating..I tend to think it translates to stronger cyclones especially late fall into early winter which helps with our cold shots, downside being we amplify the WAR/SER whenever we have a ridge in the east. So, a roller coaster pattern with enough variety to keep everybody happy at one point or another .
 
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