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Pattern Winter outlook 2022/2023

Itryatgolf said:
I will say this. The flatter the Aleutian ridge, the more troughing on west coast. Ideally, we want it expansive to promote more ridging imo.
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The strong Aleutian ridge has dumped a trough in the west and promoted a SER. At least from my untrained eye. Need low heights there to pump ridging on the west coast.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
The strong Aleutian ridge has dumped a trough in the west and promoted a SER. At least from my untrained eye. Need low heights there to pump ridging on the west coast.
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I guess I meant to say poleward Aleutian ridge because we don't want a flat Aleutian ridge, which had alot to do with troughing as well. Ideally, an Aleutian low.
 
This is probably too early to say this but I wonder if a low ACE will affect winter this year, I saw something about it on the other board and it piqued my interest.

Also, there are so many factors at play here this year, third year Nina, the volcanic eruption and the atmospheric effects of it, as I said earlier the low ACE(unless we get like all of our named storms between now and November lol), along with the warm GOA waters.

My gut feeling says a year similar to last year, close to average with a period of a good pattern. Personally I would love a front-loaded winter but at the same time it's been several years since February brought something of note other than warmth.
 
SimeonNC said:
This is probably too early to say this but I wonder if a low ACE will affect winter this year, I saw something about it on the other board and it piqued my interest.

Also, there are so many factors at play here this year, third year Nina, the volcanic eruption and the atmospheric effects of it, as I said earlier the low ACE(unless we get like all of our named storms between now and November lol), along with the warm GOA waters.

My gut feeling says a year similar to last year, close to average with a period of a good pattern. Personally I would love a front-loaded winter but at the same time it's been several years since February brought something of note other than warmth.
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Yeah, ACE scores are way low with very little heat being transported poleward via tropical activity this year, but all that oceanic heat has to go somewhere. Just speculating..I tend to think it translates to stronger cyclones especially late fall into early winter which helps with our cold shots, downside being we amplify the WAR/SER whenever we have a ridge in the east. So, a roller coaster pattern with enough variety to keep everybody happy at one point or another .
 
To be fair (posting bad along with good), the next two weeks are now showing below normal snow depth in western and eastern Siberia.

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FallsLake said:
To be fair (posting bad along with good), the next two weeks are now showing below normal snow depth in western and eastern Siberia.

View attachment 121898
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Good ! Because record breaking ice and snow cover we’ve seen up there the last few winters, hasn’t been causing great things
 
I’m intrigued by this ! Maybe if we have polar vortex disruption in Septic and October, it’ll actually happen befor March for a change! 41759811-4717-4856-8330-9D4791BBBDC2.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
I’m intrigued by this ! Maybe if we have polar vortex disruption in Septic and October, it’ll actually happen befor March for a change! View attachment 122243
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What worries me most is all that warm air over Siberia. We need that region of the world to build snowpack to become the cold source for later in the winter. Hopefully the above normal temps can still get below freezing and drop snow (in Siberia that's possible).
 
I will say some of those guys in Europe are really smart, and some are total wishcasters. I guess if that happens, would probably be an early start to winter, possibly front loaded
 
EURO seasonal outlooks (remember that they had a warm October just a month ago so grains of salt obviously) show a cooler than average beginning to winter (November and December) and a warmer look for January and February.. maybe a December to remember ??‍♂️
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
EURO seasonal outlooks (remember that they had a warm October just a month ago so grains of salt obviously) show a cooler than average beginning to winter (November and December) and a warmer look for January and February.. maybe a December to remember ??‍♂️
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Perhaps one of these La Niñas will actually look like a La Niña with a front loaded cold first half of winter and early spring the 2nd half
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
EURO seasonal outlooks (remember that they had a warm October just a month ago so grains of salt obviously) show a cooler than average beginning to winter (November and December) and a warmer look for January and February.. maybe a December to remember ??‍♂️
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Don't these seasonal models rely pretty heavily on climo as you get toward the longer leads? I don't know their algorithms, but I think I remember hearing that.
 
There are some hints on the seasonal models that are encouraging with the pv possibly residing on our side of the pole for once, a big pac ridge, and -nao. My biggest fear for this winter is slowly going away from a big SER to a strong TPV in Canada with mediocre ridging in both oceans with a zonal flow across the conus
 
FallsLake said:
What worries me most is all that warm air over Siberia. We need that region of the world to build snowpack to become the cold source for later in the winter. Hopefully the above normal temps can still get below freezing and drop snow (in Siberia that's possible).
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Yes, I have been looking at areas like Omsk, Khatanga, Yakutsk in Siberia and Im amazed at the warmth. I bet residents (what few there are) are thankful, but will tell you in a heartbeat that its not like it once was. Maybe cold air will be transient and well distributed this year, but I'm like you, I'd rather see a good snowpack and cold build there first and foremost.
 
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