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Pattern Winter outlook 2022/2023

I will say this. The flatter the Aleutian ridge, the more troughing on west coast. Ideally, we want it expansive to promote more ridging imo.
The strong Aleutian ridge has dumped a trough in the west and promoted a SER. At least from my untrained eye. Need low heights there to pump ridging on the west coast.
 
The strong Aleutian ridge has dumped a trough in the west and promoted a SER. At least from my untrained eye. Need low heights there to pump ridging on the west coast.
I guess I meant to say poleward Aleutian ridge because we don't want a flat Aleutian ridge, which had alot to do with troughing as well. Ideally, an Aleutian low.
 
This is probably too early to say this but I wonder if a low ACE will affect winter this year, I saw something about it on the other board and it piqued my interest.

Also, there are so many factors at play here this year, third year Nina, the volcanic eruption and the atmospheric effects of it, as I said earlier the low ACE(unless we get like all of our named storms between now and November lol), along with the warm GOA waters.

My gut feeling says a year similar to last year, close to average with a period of a good pattern. Personally I would love a front-loaded winter but at the same time it's been several years since February brought something of note other than warmth.
 
This is probably too early to say this but I wonder if a low ACE will affect winter this year, I saw something about it on the other board and it piqued my interest.

Also, there are so many factors at play here this year, third year Nina, the volcanic eruption and the atmospheric effects of it, as I said earlier the low ACE(unless we get like all of our named storms between now and November lol), along with the warm GOA waters.

My gut feeling says a year similar to last year, close to average with a period of a good pattern. Personally I would love a front-loaded winter but at the same time it's been several years since February brought something of note other than warmth.

Yeah, ACE scores are way low with very little heat being transported poleward via tropical activity this year, but all that oceanic heat has to go somewhere. Just speculating..I tend to think it translates to stronger cyclones especially late fall into early winter which helps with our cold shots, downside being we amplify the WAR/SER whenever we have a ridge in the east. So, a roller coaster pattern with enough variety to keep everybody happy at one point or another .
 
To be fair (posting bad along with good), the next two weeks are now showing below normal snow depth in western and eastern Siberia.

1663965612124.png
 
To be fair (posting bad along with good), the next two weeks are now showing below normal snow depth in western and eastern Siberia.

View attachment 121898
Good ! Because record breaking ice and snow cover we’ve seen up there the last few winters, hasn’t been causing great things
 
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