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Pattern Winter outlook 2022/2023

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Wasn't sure where to put this, and my apologies if it's been covered elsewhere, but here is a very fascinating article about the January eruption of Hunga Tonga and the current significant cooling in the stratosphere, with possible indications for the upcoming winter. Lots of good detail and maps here for even this layperson. Check it out guys.
www.severe-weather.eu

A substantial stratospheric cooling event is now being observed over the Southern Hemisphere following a massive injection of water vapor

Latest data shows a strong cooling event unfolding in the southern stratosphere, potentially influencing the global weather patterns
www.severe-weather.eu www.severe-weather.eu
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Wasn't sure where to put this, and my apologies if it's been covered elsewhere, but here is a very fascinating article about the January eruption of Hunga Tonga and the current significant cooling in the stratosphere, with possible indications for the upcoming winter. Lots of good detail and maps here for even this layperson. Check it out guys.
www.severe-weather.eu

A substantial stratospheric cooling event is now being observed over the Southern Hemisphere following a massive injection of water vapor

Latest data shows a strong cooling event unfolding in the southern stratosphere, potentially influencing the global weather patterns
www.severe-weather.eu www.severe-weather.eu
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Good read… I seem to remember that the consistent -NAO of the winters of ‘09-10 and first half of ‘10-11 was preceded by an eruption thought I’m can’t remember where.
 
Chazwin said:
Good read… I seem to remember that the consistent -NAO of the winters of ‘09-10 and first half of ‘10-11 was preceded by an eruption thought I’m can’t remember where.
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There were several VEI 4 eruptions in the southern hemisphere in 2008/2009, and one in the northern hemisphere. Tonga was atleast a VEI 5, but I bet we learn that it's a VEI 6, similar to Pinatubo (1991). I've never seen sunsets as pink as they are now.
 
So I just saw that Hurricanes outdoor game at Carter-Finley is scheduled for 2/18/23. Watch this year be the full on torch LaNina February that hasn’t happened the last two years and it be 80 degrees in Raleigh that day.
 
Chazwin said:
So I just saw that Hurricanes outdoor game at Carter-Finley is scheduled for 2/18/23. Watch this year be the full on torch LaNina February that hasn’t happened the last two years and it be 80 degrees in Raleigh that day.
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When I saw that date I thought oh no we are going to be torching by then. If it was 1/18 I'd actually think we'd have a chance at a snow game
 
Chazwin said:
So I just saw that Hurricanes outdoor game at Carter-Finley is scheduled for 2/18/23. Watch this year be the full on torch LaNina February that hasn’t happened the last two years and it be 80 degrees in Raleigh that day.
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They picked mid feb? Bad . Averages are climbing fast by then alongside sun angle !
 
SD, what are your early thoughts on winter? I know it's early. Do you think it will be more pacific driven if we get cold weather east of the rockies or will the nao be negative more this winter?
 
Itryatgolf said:
SD, what are your early thoughts on winter? I know it's early. Do you think it will be more pacific driven if we get cold weather east of the rockies or will the nao be negative more this winter?
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I really want to see how the pv is going to be honest. Gut feeling is chunks of torch and cold, cold November relaxing and warming for the first 2/3rds of December, back to cold for the end of Dec and first half of Jan with a relaxation to probably slightly AN for the 2nd half of January, solidly AN in Feb then cold sometime in mid March to early April. Globally things haven't changed much vs last winter so the expectation should be similar but the PV is a wild card and maybe we see a little more north Atlantic blocking this year vs last. It likely composites out at 2-4 AN for the season for most of the SE
 
SD said:
I really want to see how the pv is going to be honest. Gut feeling is chunks of torch and cold, cold November relaxing and warming for the first 2/3rds of December, back to cold for the end of Dec and first half of Jan with a relaxation to probably slightly AN for the 2nd half of January, solidly AN in Feb then cold sometime in mid March to early April. Globally things haven't changed much vs last winter so the expectation should be similar but the PV is a wild card and maybe we see a little more north Atlantic blocking this year vs last. It likely composites out at 2-4 AN for the season for most of the SE
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I wouldn't be surprised if we average out at normal temps and slightly below normal precip for DJF in the eastern sections of the southeast. I think we see recurring bouts of west based -NAO and I think it will deliver some cold during the ridging periods.
 
It was definitely warm last December but I'm assuming in stronger east based niñas, we can usually expect a scenario that played out like last winter to some extent. Each winter is different and no winter is exactly the same imo
 
After seeing the results of our hurricane season so far, I'm waiting for the experts to chime in and expecting 180 degrees difference.
 
Ollie Williams said:
The article for that was published in April
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Is it ever too early to be looking at winter?? Mark my word, winte ‘23/‘24 will be discussed before this coming January!
I mean we are starting monthly threads a week or two before the month starts, and our pets heads are falling off!
 
John1122 said:
It was September 4th, 2022. Europeans write the date differently. They write the day first so the article says 04/09/2022. The article just above it for Hurricane Danielle is dated 06/09/2022.
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Oh, that hadn’t even occurred to me. Thanks for letting me know
 
FallsLake said:
Here's the CFS for the next month. A good snow base in Siberia would really help the cold air intrusions this winter.

View attachment 121357
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I get that Siberian snow cover can be an important factor, especially when patterns set up that promote a cross polar flow. However we’ve seen plenty of years recently when above average Siberian snow cover didn’t equate to below average winter temperatures in the southeast.
 
Chazwin said:
I get that Siberian snow cover can be an important factor, especially when patterns set up that promote a cross polar flow. However we’ve seen plenty of years recently when above average Siberian snow cover didn’t equate to below average winter temperatures in the southeast.
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That's true, but all the same, personally I'll take the cryosphere as cold as with much snow pack I can get.
 
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