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Misc Winter 22-23 Whamby and Banter Thread Part 2

ILMRoss said:
webb posting like:

FiWbuqPUcAAA1B4
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Johnny Cash’s cover of “I hurt myself today” playing over the post.
 
I’m assuming this is based solely off the GFS…?
 

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would really like to see the ensembles continue with the uptick in winter threats today. That’s the best indicator we can have at this point.
 
Rain Cold said:
I guess maybe some people would prefer no discussion about anything other than how bad the pattern is. Maybe from now on, just find the maps with the most red over the SE and talk about how bad the pattern sucks 10 times a day and rack up the likes
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As a longtime lurker on this site who finally joined in December, the main reason I continue to read and decided to join was seeing useful and meaningful discussion, and I wanted to be part of that discussion. After all, this is a weather forum, not a one person weather blog or twitter. I could certainly see why some who would otherwise contribute positively to the site would be discouraged from posting or joining after reading others posts being shot down, time and time again. Weather shouldn’t be a divisive or offensive topic and should be open for a civil discussion, in my opinion.
 
CltNative90 said:
As a longtime lurker on this site who finally joined in December, the main reason I continue to read and decided to join was seeing useful and meaningful discussion, and I wanted to be part of that discussion. After all, this is a weather forum, not a one person weather blog or twitter. I could certainly see why some who would otherwise contribute positively to the site would be discouraged from posting or joining after reading others posts being shot down, time and time again. Weather shouldn’t be a divisive or offensive topic and should be open for a civil discussion, in my opinion.
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This is a great comment & totally agree.

Passion can sometimes slip into arrogance. Sometimes when people get well known or "Popular" they change into someone maybe they weren't when they started out. It happens ALOT in the weather community. But also happens with anything in life. Some are obviously smarter than others. But sometimes it's ok to just not respond to something you don't agree with.. Especially and mainly when you can't do it without coming off abrasive or rude.

At the end of the day, it's the weather... And Mother Nature doesn't give a damn what we want to happen.
 
On an unrelated topic... something that's always irked me with people in these forums is talking about how models "overdo" fantasy snow. Like they get 100's of inches of digital snow but no real snow.

People don't realize that for any given day... there is exactly one real life instance/iteration of that day where you may or may not get snow... but with the GFS/Euro/CMC there is literally 100's of iterations ran for that day leading up to it. If 6 out of 800 iterations ran for that day happen to show a snow storm, the other 794 didn't. But people will claim... that one run of the GFS buried me, what a trash model, why do I always get so much digital snow, but no real snow???

TLDR: you get more digital snow b/c you get to see 100's of forecasted iterations of a single day, not just one. And it's even worse with the GFS b/c you get to see 4 iterations per day, not just 2 like with the CMC/Euro.
 
rburrel2 said:
On an unrelated topic... something that's always irked me with people in these forums is talking about how models "overdo" fantasy snow. Like they get 100's of inches of digital snow but no real snow.

People don't realize that for any given day... there is exactly one real life instance/iteration of that day where you may or may not get snow... but with the GFS/Euro/CMC there is literally 100's of iterations ran for that day leading up to it. If 6 out of 800 iterations ran for that day happen to show a snow storm, the other 794 didn't. But people will claim... that one run of the GFS buried me, what a trash model, why do I always get so much digital snow, but no real snow???

TLDR: you get more digital snow b/c you get to see 100's of forecasted iterations of a single day, not just one.
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This is very true. I have personally seen the ops and means have 7+ inches of snow here at 36 hours more than once and I haven't gotten that much snow in over 20 years. Expecting these day 5+ runs to verify is setting yourself up for disappointment.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I think we're going to get blanked here this winter with regards to snow. Just don't see any reason to think otherwise.
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It's Jan 25th, so I don't know.. There is a reason my dude. Keep the faith. Late Feb into Early March has always been a great time frame for the Carolinas. And if that doesn't work, there is always next Winter.
 
Mitch West said:
This is a great comment & totally agree.

Passion can sometimes slip into arrogance. Sometimes when people get well known or "Popular" they change into someone maybe they weren't when they started out. It happens ALOT in the weather community. But also happens with anything in life. Some are obviously smarter than others. But sometimes it's ok to just not respond to something you don't agree with.. Especially and mainly when you can't do it without coming off abrasive or rude.

At the end of the day, it's the weather... And Mother Nature doesn't give a damn what we want to happen.
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Yes this whole site was started to give people a place to come and talk about the weather without having to deal with what American became. If people want to weenie out over the D13 gfs fine, it's on them when they are sad it's 67 with thunderstorms at verification. I said it before and I'll say it again the whole warm vs cold battle has to stop in the end it's just leading to drama and useless bickering. If you don't like what people are posting ignore them or read their post say ok and move on. In the end the argument is fruitless and doesn't change the outcome.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I think we're going to get blanked here this winter with regards to snow. Just don't see any reason to think otherwise.
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We still have 45-60 days left to think snow is a possibility around here or 3 times as long as the models run. Calling winter over now is the same as people canceling hurricane season last August
 
rburrel2 said:
On an unrelated topic... something that's always irked me with people in these forums is talking about how models "overdo" fantasy snow. Like they get 100's of inches of digital snow but no real snow.

People don't realize that for any given day... there is exactly one real life instance/iteration of that day where you may or may not get snow... but with the GFS/Euro/CMC there is literally 100's of iterations ran for that day leading up to it. If 6 out of 800 iterations ran for that day happen to show a snow storm, the other 794 didn't. But people will claim... that one run of the GFS buried me, what a trash model, why do I always get so much digital snow, but no real snow???

TLDR: you get more digital snow b/c you get to see 100's of forecasted iterations of a single day, not just one. And it's even worse with the GFS b/c you get to see 4 iterations per day, not just 2 like with the CMC/Euro.
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Correct. If you took one model run of a single model (say the 00z GFS at hr 276) and looked at it alone, I doubt you’d see much, if any, more snow on average throughout the course of a winter than the actual amount. The only exception to that is that by looking at clown accumulation maps, you’re going to get an exagerrated amount compared to what actually accumulates in some cases, but that’s just as true at hr 03 as it is at hr 276.
 
I'll add I think a lot of the angst and desperation is coming from a not great last decade really. I know for me I've seen 6 inches of snow 1 time in the last 20 years and you have to go back to 2002 for the last time I saw double digits. It sucks. But I've learned in my time I can't wish 14 inches of snow in my yard and to make the best with what I'm given which is why I'm at least hopeful we can sneak something through the first few days of Feb. After that if you think this pattern is bad just wait for the 2/7-15 period for it to really go in the pooper
 
Mitch West said:
It's Jan 25th, so I don't know.. There is a reason my dude. Keep the faith. Late Feb into Early March has always been a great time frame for the Carolinas. And if that doesn't work, there is always next Winter.
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23 years ago on this day I was a very happy kid (see my avatar). Today, on the other hand, it is dreary, wet, and bleak outside.
 
Cancelling winter when so many threats are showing up on ensembles/models in the long range during prime climo... such a strange take to have. I'm certainly not saying we're gonna get a storm, but dang... wait and cancel winter when there's literally no hope showing up anywhere on the models and it's at least a good ways in to February.
 
I think it's just expectations are out of whack for a lot of folks on this forum (I won't name names).

The reality is most of us (myself included) live in a part of the country that average anywhere from a trace to maybe 10" of snow (max) per season, while the average highs only get down to the upper 40s at their coldest.

So naturally, the law of averages will not only dictate you're going to go many years with seeing very little (if any) snow, but it will be even more of a rarity for the little snow you do see to come in the form of a "major" winter storm.

The inverse also applies. Most of us (myself included) live in a region where the average high for several straight months ranges from the mid 80s to the mid 90s, with dewpoints ranging from the low 60s to the low 70s. So again, the law of averages will dictate that most Summers are going to be relatively long/oppressive if you hate heat/humidity. Cool/dry Summers will always be the exception to the rule.

Many folks (again, won't name names) would do themselves a huge service to relocate to a snowier/colder part of the country if they're really that anxious to see winter weather on a frequent basis and experience more pleasant Summers.

Ok, I've given my (unpopular and unsolicited) opinion. Bring on the thumbs down, clown, poo and weenie emojis!!! :cool:
 
SD said:
I'll add I think a lot of the angst and desperation is coming from a not great last decade really. I know for me I've seen 6 inches of snow 1 time in the last 20 years and you have to go back to 2002 for the last time I saw double digits. It sucks. But I've learned in my time I can't wish 14 inches of snow in my yard and to make the best with what I'm given which is why I'm at least hopeful we can sneak something through the first few days of Feb. After that if you think this pattern is bad just wait for the 2/7-15 period for it to really go in the pooper
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For me, the 2009-2015 time period was pretty great for the most past, but since then it‘s been pretty bad. It didn’t help I moved to Florida during the time period we saw a few good storms in the late 2010s, but the last three winters have just been bad, no way to sugarcoat them. It’s like I brought the Florida heat back with me. I haven’t seen more than 3” of snow IMBY since Fab Feb 2015 and it hurts.

We both know the solution to our problems, though, as much as we may not like it: move to Roxboro.
 
NorthDFWwx said:
I think it's just expectations are out of whack for a lot of folks on this forum (I won't name names).

The reality is most of us (myself included) live in a part of the country that average anywhere from a trace to maybe 10" of snow (max) per season, while the average highs only get down to the upper 40s at their coldest.

So naturally, the law of averages will not only dictate you're going to go many years with seeing very little (if any) snow, but it will be even more of a rarity for the little snow you do see to come in the form of a "major" winter storm.

The inverse also applies. Most of us (myself included) live in a region where the average high for several straight months ranges from the mid 80s to the mid 90s, with dewpoints ranging from the low 60s to the low 70s. So again, the law of averages will dictate that most Summers are going to be relatively long/oppressive if you hate heat/humidity. Cool/dry Summers will always be the exception to the rule.

Many folks (again, won't name names) would do themselves a huge service to relocate to a snowier/colder part of the country if they're really that anxious to see winter weather on a frequent basis and experience more pleasant Summers.

Ok, I've given my (unpopular and unsolicited) opinion. Bring on the thumbs down, clown, poo and weenie emojis!!! :cool:
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I agree with this. Too many people live in the memory of the good years and forget the duds bc there was nothing to remember. Actually looking at the history for the nearest reporting station to you becomes a sobering thing when you see that for every good winter or "cool" summer there are more bad winters and hot Summers
 
rburrel2 said:
Cancelling winter when so many threats are showing up on ensembles/models in the long range during prime climo... such a strange take to have. I'm certainly not saying we're gonna get a storm, but dang... wait and cancel winter when there's literally no hope showing up anywhere on the models and it's at least a good ways in to February.
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You can't cancel winter until Spring has done started

Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
I agree with this. Too many people live in the memory of the good years and forget the duds bc there was nothing to remember. Actually looking at the history for the nearest reporting station to you becomes a sobering thing when you see that for every good winter or "cool" summer there are more bad winters and hot Summers
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I think if you looked at median snowfall versus average snowfall it would be informative, too. I’ve never been able to find good figures for the medians here, but I suspect that while our average snowfall for a given winter may be 5-6” or whatever, the median is probably a more sobering figure, like 2-3”. The big winters really skew the average to the high side and the vast majority of winters simply won’t meet average. I don’t know why medians aren’t reported more as that’s a more realistic expectation of what to expect in a given winter than the average.
 
rburrel2 said:
Cancelling winter when so many threats are showing up on ensembles/models in the long range during prime climo... such a strange take to have. I'm certainly not saying we're gonna get a storm, but dang... wait and cancel winter when there's literally no hope showing up anywhere on the models and it's at least a good ways in to February.
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I hear you, but I stand by my "cancel" call for winter in Atlanta. I'll eat crow if Atlanta has any significant snowfall between now and March 20th.
 
Webberweather53 said:
You can't cancel winter if it never started to begin with. Outside of the cold shot near Christmas, it's been a whole lot of nothing.
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Yes, for winter precipitation, but there have been some comfortably cold days and nights mixed in. I saw flurries, twice, so about normal expectations for my area.
 
superjames1992 said:
I think if you looked at median snowfall versus average snowfall it would be informative, too. I’ve never been able to find good figures for the medians here, but I suspect that while our average snowfall for a given winter may be 5-6” or whatever, the median is probably a more sobering figure, like 2-3”. The big winters really skew the average to the high side and the vast majority of winters simply won’t meet average. I don’t know why medians aren’t reported more as that’s a more realistic expectation of what to expect in a given winter than the average.
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Yep it would be nice if I knew that every year I would get 3-6 inches of snow but for our region that isn't simply the case and it's more likely to go T, .5, 7, 4, T, 1.2, T, 4, 1.6, 3 over a decade
 
Webberweather53 said:
You can't cancel winter if it never started to begin with. Outside of the cold shot near Christmas, it's been a whole lot of nothing.
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I haven't canceled winter yet, but I'd have to admit this has been a sad winter. No storm threads for a winter threat, for anyone in the SE.

I'm completely fine with canceling winter on Feb 15th if there's no cold hope on the ensembles. March is spring as far as I'm concerned.
 
SD said:
Got a list
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A list of people who have punted January and February? I do, but don't we all know who?

Webb, Fro, Heel, NoSnow to name a few. Since they have given up on the next few weeks, no need to keep with the ongoing nonsense that plagues the monthly discussions....just my opinion, although probably shared by many.
 
DadOfJax said:
A list of people who have punted January and February? I do, but don't we all know who?

Webb, Fro, Heel, NoSnow to name a few. Since they have given up on the next few weeks, no need to keep with the ongoing nonsense that plagues the monthly discussions....just my opinion, although probably shared by many.
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Winter never started.
 
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