Johnny Cash’s cover of “I hurt myself today” playing over the post.webb posting like:
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Misc Winter 22-23 Whamby and Banter Thread Part 2
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
NoSnowATL
Member
weatherfide
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- Jan 5, 2017
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rburrel2
Member
would really like to see the ensembles continue with the uptick in winter threats today. That’s the best indicator we can have at this point.
NoSnowATL
Member
CltNative90
Member
As a longtime lurker on this site who finally joined in December, the main reason I continue to read and decided to join was seeing useful and meaningful discussion, and I wanted to be part of that discussion. After all, this is a weather forum, not a one person weather blog or twitter. I could certainly see why some who would otherwise contribute positively to the site would be discouraged from posting or joining after reading others posts being shot down, time and time again. Weather shouldn’t be a divisive or offensive topic and should be open for a civil discussion, in my opinion.
Got a list
This is a great comment & totally agree.
Passion can sometimes slip into arrogance. Sometimes when people get well known or "Popular" they change into someone maybe they weren't when they started out. It happens ALOT in the weather community. But also happens with anything in life. Some are obviously smarter than others. But sometimes it's ok to just not respond to something you don't agree with.. Especially and mainly when you can't do it without coming off abrasive or rude.
At the end of the day, it's the weather... And Mother Nature doesn't give a damn what we want to happen.
rburrel2
Member
On an unrelated topic... something that's always irked me with people in these forums is talking about how models "overdo" fantasy snow. Like they get 100's of inches of digital snow but no real snow.
People don't realize that for any given day... there is exactly one real life instance/iteration of that day where you may or may not get snow... but with the GFS/Euro/CMC there is literally 100's of iterations ran for that day leading up to it. If 6 out of 800 iterations ran for that day happen to show a snow storm, the other 794 didn't. But people will claim... that one run of the GFS buried me, what a trash model, why do I always get so much digital snow, but no real snow???
TLDR: you get more digital snow b/c you get to see 100's of forecasted iterations of a single day, not just one. And it's even worse with the GFS b/c you get to see 4 iterations per day, not just 2 like with the CMC/Euro.
People don't realize that for any given day... there is exactly one real life instance/iteration of that day where you may or may not get snow... but with the GFS/Euro/CMC there is literally 100's of iterations ran for that day leading up to it. If 6 out of 800 iterations ran for that day happen to show a snow storm, the other 794 didn't. But people will claim... that one run of the GFS buried me, what a trash model, why do I always get so much digital snow, but no real snow???
TLDR: you get more digital snow b/c you get to see 100's of forecasted iterations of a single day, not just one. And it's even worse with the GFS b/c you get to see 4 iterations per day, not just 2 like with the CMC/Euro.
Brick Tamland
Member
Shocker!
This is very true. I have personally seen the ops and means have 7+ inches of snow here at 36 hours more than once and I haven't gotten that much snow in over 20 years. Expecting these day 5+ runs to verify is setting yourself up for disappointment.
Brick Tamland
Member
I think we're going to get blanked here this winter with regards to snow. Just don't see any reason to think otherwise.
It's Jan 25th, so I don't know.. There is a reason my dude. Keep the faith. Late Feb into Early March has always been a great time frame for the Carolinas. And if that doesn't work, there is always next Winter.
NoSnowATL
Member
Idk, you guys in NC and in CAD prone areas prob still have a shot or 2.. Its never over up north until March.
Yes this whole site was started to give people a place to come and talk about the weather without having to deal with what American became. If people want to weenie out over the D13 gfs fine, it's on them when they are sad it's 67 with thunderstorms at verification. I said it before and I'll say it again the whole warm vs cold battle has to stop in the end it's just leading to drama and useless bickering. If you don't like what people are posting ignore them or read their post say ok and move on. In the end the argument is fruitless and doesn't change the outcome.
We still have 45-60 days left to think snow is a possibility around here or 3 times as long as the models run. Calling winter over now is the same as people canceling hurricane season last August
Correct. If you took one model run of a single model (say the 00z GFS at hr 276) and looked at it alone, I doubt you’d see much, if any, more snow on average throughout the course of a winter than the actual amount. The only exception to that is that by looking at clown accumulation maps, you’re going to get an exagerrated amount compared to what actually accumulates in some cases, but that’s just as true at hr 03 as it is at hr 276.
I'll add I think a lot of the angst and desperation is coming from a not great last decade really. I know for me I've seen 6 inches of snow 1 time in the last 20 years and you have to go back to 2002 for the last time I saw double digits. It sucks. But I've learned in my time I can't wish 14 inches of snow in my yard and to make the best with what I'm given which is why I'm at least hopeful we can sneak something through the first few days of Feb. After that if you think this pattern is bad just wait for the 2/7-15 period for it to really go in the pooper