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Wintry Winter 2021-2022 predictions

As bad as 2011-12 was, at least it produced an accumulating snow event east of the mtns, with an inch or two in the Piedmont. We’ve gone entire winters (esp in parts of the 70s and the 90s) where we had basically no accumulating snow at all east of the mtns. These are a few examples of winters I’ve analyzed, notice even in the south-central mtns, they had almost nothing in a few of these cases.
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I think 49-50 was a strong La Nina. That one would have been brutal for snow weenies
 
As bad as 2011-12 was, at least it produced an accumulating snow event east of the mtns, with an inch or two in the Piedmont. We’ve gone entire winters (esp in parts of the 70s and the 90s) where we had basically no accumulating snow at all east of the mtns. These are a few examples of winters I’ve analyzed, notice even in the south-central mtns, they had almost nothing in a few of these cases.
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Come on Webb just move back already I can already see you’re getting sucked right into the beauty of NC winters .. you’re starting to see the models print those ridges out west now and ur starting to sweat … COME ON BACK MAN
 
You got a 6 inch map

Ok, here you go. Northern third of Wake Co it's obviously Dec 2018, for most of central - SW Wake, it's Jan 2018. SE Wake Dec 2010 would be the last storm. For most of Charlotte, it's Feb 2014.

The area of NC that's arguably most "due" for a 6"+ event is Montgomery Co into extreme western Moore & far SE Stanly County, that haven't seen one since Feb 2004. They've come close, but no cigar several times since then.

Of course, the Wilmington area and far southern coastal plain hasn't seen a 6"+ snow event in over 30 years, the last one being the big pre-Christmas snowstorm in December 1989 that dropped up to 20" in Longwood

Most recent 6%22+ snowstorm NC Snowmap.jpg
 
Ok, here you go. Northern third of Wake Co it's obviously Dec 2018, for most of central - SW Wake, it's Jan 2018. SE Wake Dec 2010 would be the last storm. For most of Charlotte, it's Feb 2014.

The area of NC that's arguably most "due" for a 6"+ event is Montgomery Co into extreme western Moore & far SE Stanly County, that haven't seen one since Feb 2004. They've come close, but no cigar several times since then.

Of course, the Wilmington area and far southern coastal plain hasn't seen a 6"+ snow event in over 30 years, the last one being the big pre-Christmas snowstorm in December 1989 that dropped up to 20" in Longwood

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Jesus that wake county gradient is down right awful pick your home wisely it could mean the difference of waiting for a big snow every 10 years to every 4 and so on .. thanks for the map you’re the man. I figured 12 inch map was interesting but if anyone gets 6 that’s certainly enough to satisfy a weenie around here
 
Ok, here you go. Northern third of Wake Co it's obviously Dec 2018, for most of central - SW Wake, it's Jan 2018. SE Wake Dec 2010 would be the last storm. For most of Charlotte, it's Feb 2014.

The area of NC that's arguably most "due" for a 6"+ event is Montgomery Co into extreme western Moore & far SE Stanly County, that haven't seen one since Feb 2004. They've come close, but no cigar several times since then.

Of course, the Wilmington area and far southern coastal plain hasn't seen a 6"+ snow event in over 30 years, the last one being the big pre-Christmas snowstorm in December 1989 that dropped up to 20" in Longwood

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Here's a table of the snowstorm ranked in descending order in terms of the area of the state encompassed by each one, I calculated using python. Dec 2018 gave ~40% of NC their most recent 6"+ snow event, including Asheville & Greensboro. Dec 2010 & Jan 2018 are really close.

Screen Shot 2021-10-23 at 9.12.31 AM.png
 
Ok, here you go. Northern third of Wake Co it's obviously Dec 2018, for most of central - SW Wake, it's Jan 2018. SE Wake Dec 2010 would be the last storm. For most of Charlotte, it's Feb 2014.

The area of NC that's arguably most "due" for a 6"+ event is Montgomery Co into extreme western Moore & far SE Stanly County, that haven't seen one since Feb 2004. They've come close, but no cigar several times since then.

Of course, the Wilmington area and far southern coastal plain hasn't seen a 6"+ snow event in over 30 years, the last one being the big pre-Christmas snowstorm in December 1989 that dropped up to 20" in Longwood

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I know it could be too much to ask but what about 4 inches? This is the standard for your classic winter storm in NC (I know for Eastern portions it’s like 3) I’m sure more get in on the luck there
 
The good news is in La Nina winters, the differences between haves and have nots is smaller (usually), nature usually spreads the wealth much more evenly east of the mountains. Plus, we’re more likely to get high latitude pacific blocking/-EPO/-WPO in a Nina to drive air from Siberia into N America. I feel like we honestly need that to get a good storm nowadays, -NAO on its own doesn’t deliver cold enough air consistently as last year showed. I had so much cold rain :(

I’ll be back in NC for the holidays. Gonna root for either warm enough weather to go golfing or a snowstorm ?
The best way to spread the wealth equally is for us all to get skunked! ?
 
I know it could be too much to ask but what about 4 inches? This is the standard for your classic winter storm in NC (I know for Eastern portions it’s like 3) I’m sure more get in on the luck there

This is a 4"+ map, broken down by winter. From the Triangle - Charlotte & pts NW at least one 4"+ event has occurred in the past few years. Into the south-central coastal plain and south-southeast side of the Charlotte metro, you have to go back to 2013-14. Right along the coast in Brunswick county south of Wilmington, they haven't seen a 4"+ event since 1989.

Most Recent 4%22+ Snowstorm NC Snow Map.jpg
 
This is a 4"+ map, broken down by winter. From the Triangle - Charlotte & pts NW at least one 4"+ event has occurred in the past few years. Into the south-central coastal plain and south-southeast side of the Charlotte metro, you have to go back to 2013-14. Right along the coast in Brunswick county south of Wilmington, they haven't seen a 4"+ event since 1989.

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Wow great stuff. What I think is most interesting is the lower the snow amount per event the more expansive the area that has received and also more recent the event seems to arise. This helps keep the weenie snow mentality at least a little intact with an almost assurance that lower snow events but still winter storm criteria have more chance of occurring for a wider portion of area per year. Also the more you increase it’s almost like it breaks down the climo of the region as you go towards the coast the events become more scattered and farther away as you shouldn’t expect to see bigger snows on the beach vs gradually as you head towards the mountains it’s the opposite as CAD and elevation help the chances of those types of snows occurring at every level.. very interesting way to plot things in my opinion.
 
This is a 4"+ map, broken down by winter. From the Triangle - Charlotte & pts NW at least one 4"+ event has occurred in the past few years. Into the south-central coastal plain and south-southeast side of the Charlotte metro, you have to go back to 2013-14. Right along the coast in Brunswick county south of Wilmington, they haven't seen a 4"+ event since 1989.

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Man I'm due a 4" plus snow
 
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