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Wintry Winter 2021-2022 predictions

Big Winter on the way! lol
The Notorious DT..................

WxRisk Up All Night

@WxriskUpAllNite
·
7h

**ALERT !** GFS & new ECMWF weeklies develop EXTREMELY active cold early Winter pattern for easten US for Nov into DEC.; + PNA/ -EPO/ -AO/ -NAO (West coast ridge into the Arctic region strong Blocking in Arctic/ Greenland). WOOF #wxtwitter #winteriscoming #WINTER


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WxRisk Up All Night

@WxriskUpAllNite
·
7h

wait there is more.!!. the 10d CFS mean 500 b anomalies for DEC JAN FEB have Fllpped. For the past 30 days they have showed -AO/- NAO in DEC but Neutral or Positive AO/ NAO in JAN FEB. Today they flipped; keeps strong -AO/ -NAO into late FEB


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I am taking a five week sabbatical this January. I am hoping to get away from here for the entire time and would like to go somewhere that will snow. If you had to decide in the next two weeks a place to do that in the lower 48, where would you choose? I am currently leaning toward the Colorado Rockies, but I really don't know what to expect there in January in a La Nina.

Another option is to take a chance much closer to home. I've considered finding a place around Boone and maybe hoping for a rogue storm or a few NW flow events.
 
Poimen said:
I am taking a five week sabbatical this January. I am hoping to get away from here for the entire time and would like to go somewhere that will snow. If you had to decide in the next two weeks a place to do that in the lower 48, where would you choose? I am currently leaning toward the Colorado Rockies, but I really don't know what to expect there in January in a La Nina.

Another option is to take a chance much closer to home. I've considered finding a place around Boone and maybe hoping for a rogue storm or a few NW flow events.
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I tend to go to Breckenridge for these types of trips. Not sure budget is a concern but they average about 360" of snow a year. Estes park is nice too if you want to get away from ski resorts but it's in a valley and the big snows will be up in RMNP around it.
 
Poimen said:
I am taking a five week sabbatical this January. I am hoping to get away from here for the entire time and would like to go somewhere that will snow. If you had to decide in the next two weeks a place to do that in the lower 48, where would you choose? I am currently leaning toward the Colorado Rockies, but I really don't know what to expect there in January in a La Nina.

Another option is to take a chance much closer to home. I've considered finding a place around Boone and maybe hoping for a rogue storm or a few NW flow events.
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If it was an El Niño winter id suggest Flagstaff, AZ. They see 85” per year and tons of sunshine to go with it
 
Don't drink the Breck cool aid. Compared to Vail, Winter Park, Steamboat, and Telluride, Breck gets much less snow. GoBreck.com has spent big money to get that 366" avg - maybe under their snowmaking guns. Sure they get 200"+ per year, but someone's cooking the books with the 366" so that they don't lose business to other resorts. I've taken quite a few trips to both places, and Breck, while nice, is easily drier than the others. More accurately, Steamboat gets 368" while Breckenridge gets 282". Below is a link to maybe give you some better guidance. Keep in mind that in almost every case, the higher you go in the general area, the more snow you will get. Base areas will be quite a bit less. If you want nightlife along with the snow, Breck may be a decent choice. If you want lots of dry powder and a more western feel, go Steamboat hands down.

https://www.zrankings.com/ski-resorts/snow

Good luck and have fun. You might throw Telluride in the mix as well.

TW
 
Tarheelwx said:
Don't drink the Breck cool aid. Compared to Vail, Winter Park, Steamboat, and Telluride, Breck gets much less snow. GoBreck.com has spent big money to get that 366" avg - maybe under their snowmaking guns. Sure they get 200"+ per year, but someone's cooking the books with the 366" so that they don't lose business to other resorts. I've taken quite a few trips to both places, and Breck, while nice, is easily drier than the others. More accurately, Steamboat gets 368" while Breckenridge gets 282". Below is a link to maybe give you some better guidance. Keep in mind that in almost every case, the higher you go in the general area, the more snow you will get. Base areas will be quite a bit less. If you want nightlife along with the snow, Breck may be a decent choice. If you want lots of dry powder and a more western feel, go Steamboat hands down.

https://www.zrankings.com/ski-resorts/snow

Good luck and have fun. You might throw Telluride in the mix as well.

TW
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282 inches of snow is an absolute ton and I doubt you would even notice the difference lol. Guaranteed to be buried under snow .
 
SD said:
Is this broken down by month anywhere or just a seasonal aggregate?
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It might be more detailed on his site or blog
 
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Poimen said:
I am taking a five week sabbatical this January. I am hoping to get away from here for the entire time and would like to go somewhere that will snow. If you had to decide in the next two weeks a place to do that in the lower 48, where would you choose? I am currently leaning toward the Colorado Rockies, but I really don't know what to expect there in January in a La Nina.

Another option is to take a chance much closer to home. I've considered finding a place around Boone and maybe hoping for a rogue storm or a few NW flow events.
Click to expand...
Can’t beat a location with large amounts of lake effect snow … any one of them you’re bound to have event after event and maybe sometimes it’ll feel like the snow will never end
 
Poimen said:
I am taking a five week sabbatical this January. I am hoping to get away from here for the entire time and would like to go somewhere that will snow. If you had to decide in the next two weeks a place to do that in the lower 48, where would you choose? I am currently leaning toward the Colorado Rockies, but I really don't know what to expect there in January in a La Nina.

Another option is to take a chance much closer to home. I've considered finding a place around Boone and maybe hoping for a rogue storm or a few NW flow events.
Click to expand...
Mt Washington in Vermont cashes in pretty well.
 
Poimen said:
I am taking a five week sabbatical this January. I am hoping to get away from here for the entire time and would like to go somewhere that will snow. If you had to decide in the next two weeks a place to do that in the lower 48, where would you choose? I am currently leaning toward the Colorado Rockies, but I really don't know what to expect there in January in a La Nina.

Another option is to take a chance much closer to home. I've considered finding a place around Boone and maybe hoping for a rogue storm or a few NW flow events.
Click to expand...
Try the lake belts in Northern Michigan. Can't go wrong there.
 
SD said:
I have some optimism for December and January but this far out that's dangerous. I just feel like we will be fighting the same demons as the last 5 or so winters and they haven't been overly generous minus a few short runs. Really hope the uk and euro are on to something with the weak pv early that would play right into our hands before the SER starts lurking. Right now I'm thinking December +1-3 Jan -1-+1 Feb +5-7 with 1 respectable well below normal run in December or Jan of 7-14 days
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May be flipping Jan/Feb not ideal
 
Chazwin said:
I think your number look really good for December and January as like I said I expect to see us return to more in the way of up and down with our temperatures. To me February is the big wild card… if we keep a neutral ENSO into the winter then the STJ could stay active enough to keep the SER at bay, but if it does go into another Niña then spring is coming early
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Although some of the biggest March snows have occurred in La Ninas.
 
Tarheelwx said:
The warming event last year did those of us in the southeast absolutely no good. To me an SSW just ups the odds for extreme cold but guarantees absolutely nothing.
TW
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Yeah for sure. I would honestly prefer a weaker vortex than a tightly wound one, though. We'll just have to see how it plays out. Not sure how strong it will be if/when the cold snap hits later this month. But if it's not incredibly weak and we do still go cold, that should be encouraging.
 
We don’t want dry cold but we’ll take it if it comes but if we get marginal cold that’s better for snow chances around here
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Ok everyone I never got around to doing a full on Analog study for this winter BUT I have thrown together some stuff for us to look at today.

I haven't critiqued this as hardcore as I normally would so I'd say the room for error is on the higher side than normal, BUT this seems to be a generally good group of analogs.

First up here is a comparison of the SST average of the analogs to the last 30 days of SST. Surprisingly this group turned out to be very close to the current SST map. So we can be confident in our SST comparison. The DJF period for these analogs is a moderate Nina. Its actually a very similar global state to the current SST.
View attachment 90821


I'll spare us all the individual years and stuff. Here are the temp and 500mb analogs for DJF.

These analogs also roughly align with this years June-August temp profile. Although not perfect It is close enough IMO to consider them a good analog based off temp data.

You can see we follow a pretty classic winter pattern for the Eastern US. Mixed signal December but a cold January followed by cold Central US for February. These years all feature at least one -nao month in winter and most of them have more than that. So that similarity to last year should hold true this winter.

View attachment 90822View attachment 90827View attachment 90826View attachment 90824

No surprise our precipitation follows the standard La Nina pattern here.

View attachment 90825


One Curve Ball
These analogs have two years with extremely low hurricane ace. This doesn't seem to impact our January or February but it has some pretty serious impacts to our December when we take those two out. I'm not sure how much weight to give this so I didn't change my analog group based off it but there is a correlation in this group for high ace and a cold December. Is this just a coincidence?

View attachment 90823


And finally here are the snowfall anomalies for these years. One thing that stands out is the fact that nearly every analog features a single "big dog" across the Southern US. It seems like these analogs indicate an increased chance of a large legit southern snow storm this year.

View attachment 90828View attachment 90829


Overall I would say chances are we have a normal December, Cold January, normal to AN February with an increased chance of a widespread southern storm likely in January. This also generally matches up well with the thinking that a repeat Nina typically repeats the overall pattern of the previous one although on a muted scale. Like I said I didn't deep dive into this too much so take it for what its worth! I'm rooting for you southern guys this winter :D
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My analogs are staying close in line so far with temps as we head into winter. Here is October. Warmth really pushed into the SE more than analogs but the general arrangement is good.
F23E91A7-AF92-45DB-A9A2-E10782807614.pngCB1EA0AC-433D-447B-B516-DDAEB6C03A41.png

The arrangement of anomalies for November so far is scary close.

6A4FBE7E-1CAE-40EE-8903-810022EED0C3.pngF18341C0-1F64-4B5D-954F-E233F443FBFA.png

A reminder my analogs are neutral to slightly AN December. Cold January. Cold shifts to central US for February. Our ACE this Atlantic season correlates to a colder December than my initial analog. So could it lean to BN? My guess is we could end up with a big cold shot at some point in December that could help us go BN slightly. Also a snowstorm could aide in December staying cooler than initial analogs.

You can see all that in the quoted post!
 
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Fountainguy97 said:
My analogs are staying close in line so far with temps as we head into winter. Here is October. Warmth really pushed into the SE more than analogs but the general arrangement is good.
View attachment 94888View attachment 94887

The arrangement of anomalies for November so far is scary close.

View attachment 94890View attachment 94889

A reminder my analogs are neutral to slightly AN December. Cold January. Cold shifts to central US for February. Our ACE this Atlantic season correlates to a colder December than my initial analog. So could it lean to BN? My guess is we could end up with a big cold shot at some point in December that could help us go BN slightly. Also a snowstorm could aide in December staying cooler than initial analogs.

You can see all that in the quoted post!
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Thank you for putting these together. You’ve done a really good job with them so far
 
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