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Winter 2021-2022 predictions

GaWx

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We're still in midsummer and there's already the start of the annual hyping of winter? Yawn. All thoughts now should be toward swimming pools , sand, and bikinis. Besides, most people here don't like it cold.

But since this is for predictions I predict this winter will average 25+ degrees colder than this summer in most of the SE.
 

Chazwin

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If we go to a la Nina I'm happy with that... I am scarred from our past El Nino's the last two out of three years. Plus it rains too much.
Honestly I’m becoming more convinced that Climate Change (whether the cause is man-made or not), is leading to different solutions on set ups than what we’ve seen in the past. For example, going into last year’s LaNina you could pretty much bank on with it coming out of a Nino that we should have seen a lot of SE cold and multiple snow/ice chances the first half of winter to turnover to a much milder 2nd half with a torch setting in by late February… instead we got basically average the whole winter.
As far as this winter is concerned, I’m not sold on a LaNina yet, as I’m seeing a lot to indicate that we could see a near neutral ENSO for much of the winter. If a LaNina does develop I don’t think the typical rules for a 2nd year Niña will mean all that much. I’m seeing a lot of reasons to believe that the source regions of NW Canada and Alaska will not take as long to build up cold air as it has in recent years…. Most of those areas are seeing temperatures very close if not just below average this summer whereas the last couple years they have been setting heat records. If I had to guess right now, I think many of us in the southeast will see a lot of swings to the temps where we do see some shots of actual arctic air, but on the flip side there should be periods of mild air as well and temperatures end up close to average overall. The key to the staying power on the milder periods of course will be how much the SER is able to flex… if the ENSO does stay neutral going into the winter we should see a very active STJ that would help keep the SER at bay.
 

Bham 99

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Honestly I’m becoming more convinced that Climate Change (whether the cause is man-made or not), is leading to different solutions on set ups than what we’ve seen in the past. For example, going into last year’s LaNina you could pretty much bank on with it coming out of a Nino that we should have seen a lot of SE cold and multiple snow/ice chances the first half of winter to turnover to a much milder 2nd half with a torch setting in by late February… instead we got basically average the whole winter.
As far as this winter is concerned, I’m not sold on a LaNina yet, as I’m seeing a lot to indicate that we could see a near neutral ENSO for much of the winter. If a LaNina does develop I don’t think the typical rules for a 2nd year Niña will mean all that much. I’m seeing a lot of reasons to believe that the source regions of NW Canada and Alaska will not take as long to build up cold air as it has in recent years…. Most of those areas are seeing temperatures very close if not just below average this summer whereas the last couple years they have been setting heat records. If I had to guess right now, I think many of us in the southeast will see a lot of swings to the temps where we do see some shots of actual arctic air, but on the flip side there should be periods of mild air as well and temperatures end up close to average overall. The key to the staying power on the milder periods of course will be how much the SER is able to flex… if the ENSO does stay neutral going into the winter we should see a very active STJ that would help keep the SER at bay.
How do you think the Pacific is going to cooperate this year?
 

Chazwin

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How do you think the Pacific is going to cooperate this year?
While I doubt the Pacific will be great throughout the winter, just based on the law of averages we really should get some help at times…. I mean let’s keep in mind that a lot of folks outside the mountains are really overdue now for solid winter storm… especially south of I-40 and of course even more so south of I-85. I keep thinking that eventually we’ve got to be able to see another Southern Slider overrunning event.
 

Tarheel1

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While I doubt the Pacific will be great throughout the winter, just based on the law of averages we really should get some help at times…. I mean let’s keep in mind that a lot of folks outside the mountains are really overdue now for solid winter storm… especially south of I-40 and of course even more so south of I-85. I keep thinking that eventually we’ve got to be able to see another Southern Slider overrunning event.
One year, sooner or later, the I-20 to I-85 corridor, will have another blockbuster storm, like Jan ‘11
 

Faco Thomas

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Honestly I’m becoming more convinced that Climate Change (whether the cause is man-made or not), is leading to different solutions on set ups than what we’ve seen in the past. For example, going into last year’s LaNina you could pretty much bank on with it coming out of a Nino that we should have seen a lot of SE cold and multiple snow/ice chances the first half of winter to turnover to a much milder 2nd half with a torch setting in by late February… instead we got basically average the whole winter.
As far as this winter is concerned, I’m not sold on a LaNina yet, as I’m seeing a lot to indicate that we could see a near neutral ENSO for much of the winter. If a LaNina does develop I don’t think the typical rules for a 2nd year Niña will mean all that much. I’m seeing a lot of reasons to believe that the source regions of NW Canada and Alaska will not take as long to build up cold air as it has in recent years…. Most of those areas are seeing temperatures very close if not just below average this summer whereas the last couple years they have been setting heat records. If I had to guess right now, I think many of us in the southeast will see a lot of swings to the temps where we do see some shots of actual arctic air, but on the flip side there should be periods of mild air as well and temperatures end up close to average overall. The key to the staying power on the milder periods of course will be how much the SER is able to flex… if the ENSO does stay neutral going into the winter we should see a very active STJ that would help keep the SER at bay.

Who knows,but if I'm being honset, I have accepted that those us east of the Mountains might not get a "real winter" for a long time, where we actually get true arctic cold and winter storms deep into the south .The SER has been the dominant feature and Pacific hasn't favorable for us in a while. I find it hard to belive that much will fundamentally channge in the 2021/22 winter. Summer isn't even over yet,so things can change,but it's best to safe,so I will just go with warmth and no snow/cold for people south of the I-40 corrdior areas regarding the east of the mouantains,tho the 2021/22 winter in the western SE(west of the mountains) might be interesting, just like Feb of this year.
 

Chazwin

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Who knows,but if I'm being honset, I have accepted that those us east of the Mountains might not get a "real winter" for a long time, where we actually get true arctic cold and winter storms deep into the south .The SER has been the dominant feature and Pacific hasn't favorable for us in a while. I find it hard to belive that much will fundamentally channge in the 2021/22 winter. Summer isn't even over yet,so things can change,but it's best to safe,so I will just go with warmth and no snow/cold for people south of the I-40 corrdior areas regarding the east of the mouantains,tho the 2021/22 winter in the western SE(west of the mountains) might be interesting, just like Feb of this year.
Well history says that many of us south of I-40 will see snow at some point during the winter. Keep in mind that KCLT has never gone snowless for an entire winter since records started being kept and has never gone more than two consecutive winters without receiving at least a 1” plus snowfall… we do put that to the test this year as KCLT has not had a 1”+ storm since ‘18-‘19. If we’re just talking snowfall chances then just based on history a lot areas between I-40 and I-20 are due or overdue for a major snowfall (4”plus), so sooner or later we’ll get the southern slider overrunning event that I’ve been waiting for the last few years. Finally keep in mind, an overall mild winter can still produce, even in the south. Ask snow lovers in Upstate SC and western NC how good ‘87-88 was or central NC folks about ‘99-00, or se NC and coastal SC people about ‘89-90. Those years would probably be remembered as great winters and will always be talked about because of the major and historical storms that those areas had in the given years, but each of those winters were overall above to well above average temperatures.
 
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