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Wintry Winter 2021-2022 predictions

Lickwx said:
Anything as long as it isn’t super extreme cold will be better than last winter . I mean anything , nothing kills the soul more than non stop 48-52 and rain . I definitely get the feeling it will be a variable winter , probably not cold but it won’t be boring or disappoint all of us , probably most of us , not all of us though.
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Yeah I don’t think we’ll see anything like late Dec 17 and early January ‘18, but I would be suprised if we didn’t see some stretches with highs in the 30s and lows in the 15-20 for both our areas, but like I said I think that we’ll see plenty 65-70 degree afternoons as well. Another thing to watch is just how much of a player the MJO is… I can’t imagine that it would stay as low amped as it did most of last winter.
 
I just hope we can get a board-wide storm that actually delivers for areas east of the Apps. Last February was so painful. Texas, Arkansas and Oklahoma set snowfall records, so why can't we? Perhaps someday it'll be our turn for a historic storm...RDU hasn't had 10" or more in a winter in 17 years. I guess it could be worse though, we've managed to sneak by with marginal events every year for a while.

La Nina winters around here, historically, tend to be front-loaded, with the best chances of snowfall earlier in winter. Since it appears as if we are headed towards La Nina, I'd expect February in particular to be a lot warmer than last year, and probably more warm days during winter than last year too. Last February was cooler than normal in the SE (rare for a La Nina), and areas of the Apps had little to nothing in the way of snow to show for it.
 
Lickwx said:
What’s the happiest thing that ever happened in your life ? I swear you are the grinch himself . No rain no snow no this no that. Muh summer of 93 drought muh 110 degrees muh muh muh dried up grass.
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Why are you quoting @SD??
 
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JHS said:
Those are done for good. Storms like Jan 1988 and Jan 2000 are gone for good south of the Ohio river. Our winters will be more like last year and the year before that. You will have to be above 5000 ft in the southeast to get more than 2-3 inches of snow from any 1 system.
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After what we witnessed in Texas last winter, your statement is simply not accurate. You are obsessed with this GW mentality and it's getting old.
 
Wonder if the extreme warmth in Greenland and Siberia will impact our winter in the SE. Our turn to be cold? Love to hear mets theorize things like that.
 
JHS said:
Those are done for good. Storms like Jan 1988 and Jan 2000 are gone for good south of the Ohio river. Our winters will be more like last year and the year before that. You will have to be above 5000 ft in the southeast to get more than 2-3 inches of snow from any 1 system.
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Time will tell. There are a lot of scientist, politicians, and mets that share those sentiments, so we shall see. Hope not!!!
 
Avalanche said:
Time will tell. There are a lot of scientist, politicians, and mets that share those sentiments, so we shall see. Hope not!!!
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If it was just about GW,then wouldn't Houston,Dallas,Shreveport, Jackson,etc be left without a winter storm last year like us? I kind of agree that us in the eastrn SE might be done for quite sometime,but our issues when it comes to winter weather is not just from GW.i Our main issues why we can't a winter storm or arctic air really comes down the SE Ridge playing a big role and the Pacific being crap every year.I think the western SE(espically AL,western GA,TN and eastern half of MS ) might actually do better or even much better this coming winter than the last one,espically if the ENSO is netrual or if there's a very weak LA Nina(remember western GA,AL,and far eastern MS were mostly left out of the Feb storm from this year,outside of a small amout of snow in some areas).
 
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Faco Thomas said:
Or Feb of 1979,1980 or Jan 2000.Personally,A March 1993 sort of setup wouldn't be good for my area(unless the storm is atleast a 100 miles S/E) of where that storm was.
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Try living in Nashville.... In 2015 and last year, we had a would-be 10 inch snow fall as ice/sleet.
 
JHS said:
Those are done for good. Storms like Jan 1988 and Jan 2000 are gone for good south of the Ohio river. Our winters will be more like last year and the year before that. You will have to be above 5000 ft in the southeast to get more than 2-3 inches of snow from any 1 system.
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No sir the storms still exist. You're just gonna waste 3/4 of the precip on rain and Sleet ???
 
Avalanche said:
Time will tell. There are a lot of scientist, politicians, and mets that share those sentiments, so we shall see. Hope not!!!
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Those kinds of proclamations are absurd. If it was technically impossible for it not to get cold here anymore, then ok. But that's not the case. And so to say we'll never see an anomalous storm or period again is just a silly, attention-seeking comment.
 
SD said:
AN temps, 1 big dog gives AN snow for a decent % of the board.
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Feeling optimistic this morning! ??
I’m thinking I see 100% of normal, which is 35-40”, I believe.
 
Random snowfall total predictions - based on nothing but gut feeling:
Dallas: T
New Orleans: T
Birmingham: 2.0"
Atlanta: 0.8"
Greenville SC: 1.4"
Columbia: 0.2"
Nashville: 2.5"
Raleigh: 3.2"
Greensboro: 8.0"
Charlotte: 2.4"
 
Rain Cold said:
Those kinds of proclamations are absurd. If it was technically impossible for it not to get cold here anymore, then ok. But that's not the case. And so to say we'll never see an anomalous storm or period again is just a silly, attention-seeking comment.
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Rain Cold, I was just saying the dudes comments are reflected by these people. I dont personally feel that way. It was a response to JHS's post.
 
Avalanche said:
Rain Cold, I was just saying the dudes comments are reflected by these people. I dont personally feel that way. It was a response to JHS's post.
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Right, yes sir. I was saying JHS was being silly. Your comments were spot on.
 
My coldest low was -17, and my coldest high was -6, around Valentine’s Day. I hear actual temps in the -30’s for lows are not impossible. To quote ?, “ cold and dry sucks” ??
 
This has been such a strange year for weather with temps 120+ in Canada and temps struggling to reach 90 in Atlanta. Therefore, I'm predicting the madness to continue in the winter. Atlanta will get more snow than Dubuque.
 
85a2dfa9cb115c9ab3b7e8b89caacf90.jpg


Can we get this to happen?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Jessy89 said:
85a2dfa9cb115c9ab3b7e8b89caacf90.jpg


Can we get this to happen?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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I would move the SE ridge a bit futher west and put the cold colors a bit futher south in the SW regions, but overall I actually agree with this. This would actually a very depressing look for us in Central SC. Cold air very clsoe to us,but no go due to the SE ridge,so this looks very realistic. This would the FEB pattern 2.0,but way worse since far eastern MS,AL ,SE TN, and even big part of GA would be far more involed this time.If this look actually turns out to be right,I might actually retire from talking about winter weather for a couple of years.
 
SD said:
Give me thisView attachment 86698
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Not bad at all. If the cold air with this sort of pattern is anywhere near as cold as the cold air that made it to most of the US back in FEB this year, we might be golden. Too bad this looks very unlikely as of now,with the Pacific still being very questionable at best
 
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Faco Thomas said:
Not bad at all. If the cold air with this sort of pattern is anywhere near as cold as the cold air that made to most of the US back in FEB this, we might be golden. Too bad this looks very unlikely as of now,with the Pacific still being very questionable at best
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I have some optimism for December and January but this far out that's dangerous. I just feel like we will be fighting the same demons as the last 5 or so winters and they haven't been overly generous minus a few short runs. Really hope the uk and euro are on to something with the weak pv early that would play right into our hands before the SER starts lurking. Right now I'm thinking December +1-3 Jan -1-+1 Feb +5-7 with 1 respectable well below normal run in December or Jan of 7-14 days
 
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Dewpoint Dan said:
This has been such a strange year for weather with temps 120+ in Canada and temps struggling to reach 90 in Atlanta. Therefore, I'm predicting the madness to continue in the winter. Atlanta will get more snow than Dubuque.
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This is less likely than me winning the Powerball jackpot
 
Faco Thomas said:
I would move the SE ridge a bit futher west and put the cold colors a bit futher south in the SW regions, but overall I actually agree with this. This would actually a very depressing look for us in Central SC. Cold air very clsoe to us,but no go due to the SE ridge,so this looks very realistic. This would the FEB pattern 2.0,but way worse since far eastern MS,AL ,SE TN, and even big part of GA would be far more involed this time.If this look actually turns out to be right,I might actually retire from talking about winter weather for a couple of years.
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Keep in mind that while the SER has seemed to screw up our winters a lot lately, last year it was muted for much of the winter by the blocking we saw up north. In fact much of December and January saw an overall H5 pattern that you would like to see for a classic front end loaded LaNina winter. The problem was that there simply not enough cold air available in our source regions of NW Canada and Alaska… by the time the cold was available, the MJO decided to amp up in an unfavorable phase and flexed the SER despite the blocking and dumped all the cold west of the Apps. This year, as I’ve mentioned, the source regions are seeing a much cooler summer compared to the record setting heat they’ve seen the last several years. This should allow for cold air to start building up early and at least give us a chance in December and January.
 
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