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Winter 2021-2022 predictions

Tarheel1

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My coldest low was -17, and my coldest high was -6, around Valentine’s Day. I hear actual temps in the -30’s for lows are not impossible. To quote 🧱, “ cold and dry sucks” 🤘🍆
 

Faco Thomas

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Can we get this to happen?


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I would move the SE ridge a bit futher west and put the cold colors a bit futher south in the SW regions, but overall I actually agree with this. This would actually a very depressing look for us in Central SC. Cold air very clsoe to us,but no go due to the SE ridge,so this looks very realistic. This would the FEB pattern 2.0,but way worse since far eastern MS,AL ,SE TN, and even big part of GA would be far more involed this time.If this look actually turns out to be right,I might actually retire from talking about winter weather for a couple of years.
 

Faco Thomas

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Not bad at all. If the cold air with this sort of pattern is anywhere near as cold as the cold air that made it to most of the US back in FEB this year, we might be golden. Too bad this looks very unlikely as of now,with the Pacific still being very questionable at best
 
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SD

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Not bad at all. If the cold air with this sort of pattern is anywhere near as cold as the cold air that made to most of the US back in FEB this, we might be golden. Too bad this looks very unlikely as of now,with the Pacific still being very questionable at best
I have some optimism for December and January but this far out that's dangerous. I just feel like we will be fighting the same demons as the last 5 or so winters and they haven't been overly generous minus a few short runs. Really hope the uk and euro are on to something with the weak pv early that would play right into our hands before the SER starts lurking. Right now I'm thinking December +1-3 Jan -1-+1 Feb +5-7 with 1 respectable well below normal run in December or Jan of 7-14 days
 
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Chazwin

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I would move the SE ridge a bit futher west and put the cold colors a bit futher south in the SW regions, but overall I actually agree with this. This would actually a very depressing look for us in Central SC. Cold air very clsoe to us,but no go due to the SE ridge,so this looks very realistic. This would the FEB pattern 2.0,but way worse since far eastern MS,AL ,SE TN, and even big part of GA would be far more involed this time.If this look actually turns out to be right,I might actually retire from talking about winter weather for a couple of years.
Keep in mind that while the SER has seemed to screw up our winters a lot lately, last year it was muted for much of the winter by the blocking we saw up north. In fact much of December and January saw an overall H5 pattern that you would like to see for a classic front end loaded LaNina winter. The problem was that there simply not enough cold air available in our source regions of NW Canada and Alaska… by the time the cold was available, the MJO decided to amp up in an unfavorable phase and flexed the SER despite the blocking and dumped all the cold west of the Apps. This year, as I’ve mentioned, the source regions are seeing a much cooler summer compared to the record setting heat they’ve seen the last several years. This should allow for cold air to start building up early and at least give us a chance in December and January.
 

Chazwin

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I have some optimism for December and January but this far out that's dangerous. I just feel like we will be fighting the same demons as the last 5 or so winters and they haven't been overly generous minus a few short runs. Really hope the uk and euro are on to something with the weak pv early that would play right into our hands before the SER starts lurking. Right now I'm thinking December +1-3 Jan -1-+1 Feb +5-7 with 1 respectable well below normal run in December or Jan of 7-14 days
I think your number look really good for December and January as like I said I expect to see us return to more in the way of up and down with our temperatures. To me February is the big wild card… if we keep a neutral ENSO into the winter then the STJ could stay active enough to keep the SER at bay, but if it does go into another Niña then spring is coming early
 

SimeonNC

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The I-85 corridor is way overdue for a major ice event, we came close a number of times this past winter. I wouldn't be surprised if it finally happens this winter.

Other than that there is not enough info to start making actual predictions.

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Chazwin

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The I-85 corridor is way overdue for a major ice event, we came close a number of times this past winter. I wouldn't be surprised if it finally happens this winter.

Other than that there is not enough info to start making actual predictions.

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If we have a -NAO for much of the winter like we did last year, I would think we would see a major ice storm somewhere between GSP and RDU. The key will be how much snow pack gets put down in the Northeast. There were a number of times last year that I thought could have produced significant icing if there had been any snow pack up there
 

superjames1992

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The I-85 corridor is way overdue for a major ice event, we came close a number of times this past winter. I wouldn't be surprised if it finally happens this winter.

Other than that there is not enough info to start making actual predictions.

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We don’t get ice anymore, unfortunately. We can’t get any precip below freezing, period.
 

Brick Tamland

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Yeah, the reason we're overdue is because it doesn't happen anymore. The climate around here is just screwed up now. The factors that used to give us lots of winter storms just don't work like they used to.
 
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We don’t get ice anymore, unfortunately. We can’t get any precip below freezing, period.
Freezing rain is the hardest wintry precip to get because it's the only one where the surface has to be below freezing. During Dec 2018 5 of my 6 inches fell as the temp was 33-34 degrees in about 6 hours. When the temp fell to 32 the warm nose changed it to Sleet and the next 6 hrs only yielded an inch of Sleet on top.
 

Avalanche

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Yeah, the reason we're overdue is because it doesn't happen anymore. The climate around here is just screwed up now. The factors that used to give us lots of winter storms just don't work like they used to.
Absolutely right. NE High, coastal low yields 45 degree rain. Ohio Valley High, Low in the deep south = plain rain, except for the NW fringes.
 
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