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Wintry Winter 2021-2022 predictions

I have some optimism for December and January but this far out that's dangerous. I just feel like we will be fighting the same demons as the last 5 or so winters and they haven't been overly generous minus a few short runs. Really hope the uk and euro are on to something with the weak pv early that would play right into our hands before the SER starts lurking. Right now I'm thinking December +1-3 Jan -1-+1 Feb +5-7 with 1 respectable well below normal run in December or Jan of 7-14 days
I think your number look really good for December and January as like I said I expect to see us return to more in the way of up and down with our temperatures. To me February is the big wild card… if we keep a neutral ENSO into the winter then the STJ could stay active enough to keep the SER at bay, but if it does go into another Niña then spring is coming early
 
The I-85 corridor is way overdue for a major ice event, we came close a number of times this past winter. I wouldn't be surprised if it finally happens this winter.

Other than that there is not enough info to start making actual predictions.

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The I-85 corridor is way overdue for a major ice event, we came close a number of times this past winter. I wouldn't be surprised if it finally happens this winter.

Other than that there is not enough info to start making actual predictions.

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If we have a -NAO for much of the winter like we did last year, I would think we would see a major ice storm somewhere between GSP and RDU. The key will be how much snow pack gets put down in the Northeast. There were a number of times last year that I thought could have produced significant icing if there had been any snow pack up there
 
The I-85 corridor is way overdue for a major ice event, we came close a number of times this past winter. I wouldn't be surprised if it finally happens this winter.

Other than that there is not enough info to start making actual predictions.

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We don’t get ice anymore, unfortunately. We can’t get any precip below freezing, period.
 
Yeah, the reason we're overdue is because it doesn't happen anymore. The climate around here is just screwed up now. The factors that used to give us lots of winter storms just don't work like they used to.
 
We don’t get ice anymore, unfortunately. We can’t get any precip below freezing, period.
Freezing rain is the hardest wintry precip to get because it's the only one where the surface has to be below freezing. During Dec 2018 5 of my 6 inches fell as the temp was 33-34 degrees in about 6 hours. When the temp fell to 32 the warm nose changed it to Sleet and the next 6 hrs only yielded an inch of Sleet on top.
 
Yeah, the reason we're overdue is because it doesn't happen anymore. The climate around here is just screwed up now. The factors that used to give us lots of winter storms just don't work like they used to.
Absolutely right. NE High, coastal low yields 45 degree rain. Ohio Valley High, Low in the deep south = plain rain, except for the NW fringes.
 
Well imagine that! I haven’t watched a JB video in 6 to 8 months. Today I watched my first Saturday summary video. Guess what JB is calling for…A December To Remember. I am so shocked.


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Will it be remembered for record heat ?
 
December to remember. I think for NC we will see a large Fall severe weather tornado then snowstorm about 1 month later for many.
 
I doubt a La Niña like THAT will be returning.
I think that if we go back into a LaNina, it will have a bigger effect on the backside of winter. As entrenched as the pattern has seemed to be for western ridging and the drought that has taken shape, it’s going to take some time to really break that down. With the source areas looking to be building up cold air earlier than recent years, I think this should set things up for cold shots the first half of the winter, but spring coming early in February
 
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