It's a good year to look back on and see what can go wrong with a SSW/PV split and how that doesn't equal a cold US.We’ve had clunkers in recent years but 11-12 was the most boring winter of all. Literally not one thing to track. At least all the others tried to show a pulse.
December had the strong tpv and a raging +nao that offer the attempt at pac ridging as the ridges bridged across the US. Jan saw the warming over Siberia into AK at 10mb but the tpv parked in AK and muted the western ridge that was warm. When feb came around we got a little Canadian ridging but by that point the tp was leaving for Siberia and we had a limited cold source that was still warm. (We got a little rain to snow event).
It's a decent analog for this year but I'm not sure the high latitudes and strat will behave exactly the same but obviously the potential that we lock into a warmer boring pattern is there
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