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Wintry Winter 2021-2022 predictions

cd2play said:
We’ve had clunkers in recent years but 11-12 was the most boring winter of all. Literally not one thing to track. At least all the others tried to show a pulse.
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It's a good year to look back on and see what can go wrong with a SSW/PV split and how that doesn't equal a cold US.

December had the strong tpv and a raging +nao that offer the attempt at pac ridging as the ridges bridged across the US. Jan saw the warming over Siberia into AK at 10mb but the tpv parked in AK and muted the western ridge that was warm. When feb came around we got a little Canadian ridging but by that point the tp was leaving for Siberia and we had a limited cold source that was still warm. (We got a little rain to snow event).

It's a decent analog for this year but I'm not sure the high latitudes and strat will behave exactly the same but obviously the potential that we lock into a warmer boring pattern is there
 
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01-02 , 11-12 and 21-22 following the 11-12 evolution so far. I see a pattern developing here. If this winter is going to end up one of the warmest on record like those 2 I sure hope it follows 01-02 in the snowfall department. Never want to see an 11-12 ever again.
 
I
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
01-02 , 11-12 and 21-22 following the 11-12 evolution so far. I see a pattern developing here. If this winter is going to end up one of the warmest on record like those 2 I sure hope it follows 01-02 in the snowfall department. Never want to see an 11-12 ever again.
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Its actually 2011 anyway. We’ve gone back in time
 
cd2play said:
We’ve had clunkers in recent years but 11-12 was the most boring winter of all. Literally not one thing to track. At least all the others tried to show a pulse.
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In NC, we had this crap storm, at least. It wasn’t a street sticker IMBY, though.

D4DC6FBB-591C-4E4E-BD57-DAE097206718.gif
 
superjames1992 said:
In NC, we had this crap storm, at least. It wasn’t a street sticker IMBY, though.

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I’d take a inch of snow right now. Haven’t even seen the grass really turn white since Dec 2018. Mega frosts have gave me more ground whitening then any snow here the last 3 closing on 4 years, yes I haven’t had a storm with over a inch of snow in 3-4 years, when I average 3-4 inches of snow a winter
 
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Graphs like these make the weenie part of me sad. This is the seasonal snowfall total and number of accumulating (> Trace) snowfalls at Fayetteville, NC since the winter of 1891-92 I've reconstructed using data from NCEI, SERCC, NWS RAH, & my own website. It's interesting to see that while the seasonal snowfall is decreasing (at a rate of about a dusting per decade), the number of accumulating events show no trend. That may be due to better detection later in the record, but I think I can conclude that we are certainly losing the "big" snows around here. Fayetteville's snowfall climo used to be ~5", which is pretty comparable to what Raleigh's is today. You see a similar overall theme of decreasing snowfall (mainly from the loss of big storms) at most places in the east-central piedmont and coastal plain of NC. At first glance, there doesn't look to be any trend or weakly positive ones in the far western and northern piedmont of NC (Triad region and areas W + N).

Excel sheet for download:
Fayetteville, NC Seasonal Snowfall (1871-2021)

Screen Shot 2021-10-22 at 8.51.33 AM.pngScreen Shot 2021-10-22 at 8.51.15 AM.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Graphs like these make the weenie part of me sad. This is the seasonal snowfall total and number of accumulating (> Trace) snowfalls at Fayetteville, NC since the winter of 1891-92 I've reconstructed using data from NCEI, SERCC, NWS RAH, & my own website. It's interesting to see that while the seasonal snowfall is decreasing (at a rate of about a dusting per decade), the number of accumulating events show no trend. That may be due to better detection later in the record, but I think I can conclude that we are certainly losing the "big" snows around here. Fayetteville's snowfall climo used to be ~5", which is pretty comparable to what Raleigh's is today. You see a similar overall theme of decreasing snowfall (mainly from the loss of big storms) at most places in the east-central piedmont and coastal plain of NC. At first glance, there doesn't look to be any trend or weakly positive ones in the far western and northern piedmont of NC (Triad region and areas W + N).

Excel sheet for download:
Fayetteville, NC Seasonal Snowfall (1871-2021)

View attachment 93250View attachment 93251
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We're due?
 
SD said:
We're due?
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The good news is in La Nina winters, the differences between haves and have nots is smaller (usually), nature usually spreads the wealth much more evenly east of the mountains. Plus, we’re more likely to get high latitude pacific blocking/-EPO/-WPO in a Nina to drive air from Siberia into N America. I feel like we honestly need that to get a good storm nowadays, -NAO on its own doesn’t deliver cold enough air consistently as last year showed. I had so much cold rain :(

I’ll be back in NC for the holidays. Gonna root for either warm enough weather to go golfing or a snowstorm ?
 
Webberweather53 said:
The good news is in La Nina winters, the differences between haves and have nots is smaller (usually), nature usually spreads the wealth much more evenly east of the mountains. Plus, we’re more likely to get high latitude pacific blocking/-EPO/-WPO in a Nina to drive air from Siberia into N America. I feel like we honestly need that to get a good storm nowadays, -NAO on its own doesn’t deliver cold enough air consistently as last year showed. I had so much cold rain :(
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Maybe I'm just being a super weenie but I don't feel terrible about this winter WRT to snowfall potential. Now actually getting a lot of sustained cold....
 
SD said:
Maybe I'm just being a super weenie but I don't feel terrible about this winter WRT to snowfall potential. Now actually getting a lot of sustained cold....
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Yep I think we’re above normal temp wise this winter. Some snows tho. Honestly most just want snow and that’s it so I personally like a AN winter with snow
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep I think we’re above normal temp wise this winter. Some snows tho. Honestly most just want snow and that’s it so I personally like a AN winter with snow
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Yeah it's hard to find a way to see BN this winter as a whole with Feb nina climo on the table unless we find a way to block like crazy through the first half of winter. Just playing with some analogs the other day I got an avg of 5 at rdu but a range of T-12 so a lot is on the table imo.

I'm encouraged by some parts of the pattern right now and if we can get some similarity in winter we have potential to unload a blockbuster or 2
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep I think we’re above normal temp wise this winter. Some snows tho. Honestly most just want snow and that’s it so I personally like a AN winter with snow
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Personally only time want snow is around Christmas … after that keep it and the cold too. Glad we have a great chance of a warm winter this season ….
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep I think we’re above normal temp wise this winter. Some snows tho. Honestly most just want snow and that’s it so I personally like a AN winter with snow
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Kinda the same way. However, I don't like above 32degree snowfalls. That one in 2018 delivered 8 inches here with temps 33/34, nearly a foot just west of Carrboro and Chapel Hill with 32/33 degrees. If that snow takes place with temps 32 or below, easily a foot plus here with excessive amounts just NW.
 
cd2play said:
We’ve had clunkers in recent years but 11-12 was the most boring winter of all. Literally not one thing to track. At least all the others tried to show a pulse.
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As bad as 2011-12 was, at least it produced an accumulating snow event east of the mtns, with an inch or two in the Piedmont. We’ve gone entire winters (esp in parts of the 70s and the 90s) where we had basically no accumulating snow at all east of the mtns. These are a few examples of winters I’ve analyzed, notice even in the south-central mtns, they had almost nothing in a few of these cases.
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1634947359306.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
As bad as 2011-12 was, at least it produced an accumulating snow event east of the mtns, with an inch or two in the Piedmont. We’ve gone entire winters (esp in parts of the 70s and the 90s) where we had basically no accumulating snow at all east of the mtns. These are a few examples of winters I’ve analyzed, notice even in the south-central mtns, they had almost nothing in a few of these cases.
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Good to see @metwannabe was about to get his reports in for all of these
 
Webberweather53 said:
As bad as 2011-12 was, at least it produced an accumulating snow event east of the mtns, with an inch or two in the Piedmont. We’ve gone entire winters (esp in parts of the 70s and the 90s) where we had basically no accumulating snow at all east of the mtns. These are a few examples of winters I’ve analyzed, notice even in the south-central mtns, they had almost nothing in a few of these cases.
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I think 49-50 was a strong La Nina. That one would have been brutal for snow weenies
 
Webberweather53 said:
As bad as 2011-12 was, at least it produced an accumulating snow event east of the mtns, with an inch or two in the Piedmont. We’ve gone entire winters (esp in parts of the 70s and the 90s) where we had basically no accumulating snow at all east of the mtns. These are a few examples of winters I’ve analyzed, notice even in the south-central mtns, they had almost nothing in a few of these cases.
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Come on Webb just move back already I can already see you’re getting sucked right into the beauty of NC winters .. you’re starting to see the models print those ridges out west now and ur starting to sweat … COME ON BACK MAN
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
You got a 6 inch map
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Ok, here you go. Northern third of Wake Co it's obviously Dec 2018, for most of central - SW Wake, it's Jan 2018. SE Wake Dec 2010 would be the last storm. For most of Charlotte, it's Feb 2014.

The area of NC that's arguably most "due" for a 6"+ event is Montgomery Co into extreme western Moore & far SE Stanly County, that haven't seen one since Feb 2004. They've come close, but no cigar several times since then.

Of course, the Wilmington area and far southern coastal plain hasn't seen a 6"+ snow event in over 30 years, the last one being the big pre-Christmas snowstorm in December 1989 that dropped up to 20" in Longwood

Most recent 6%22+ snowstorm NC Snowmap.jpg
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ok, here you go. Northern third of Wake Co it's obviously Dec 2018, for most of central - SW Wake, it's Jan 2018. SE Wake Dec 2010 would be the last storm. For most of Charlotte, it's Feb 2014.

The area of NC that's arguably most "due" for a 6"+ event is Montgomery Co into extreme western Moore & far SE Stanly County, that haven't seen one since Feb 2004. They've come close, but no cigar several times since then.

Of course, the Wilmington area and far southern coastal plain hasn't seen a 6"+ snow event in over 30 years, the last one being the big pre-Christmas snowstorm in December 1989 that dropped up to 20" in Longwood

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Jesus that wake county gradient is down right awful pick your home wisely it could mean the difference of waiting for a big snow every 10 years to every 4 and so on .. thanks for the map you’re the man. I figured 12 inch map was interesting but if anyone gets 6 that’s certainly enough to satisfy a weenie around here
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ok, here you go. Northern third of Wake Co it's obviously Dec 2018, for most of central - SW Wake, it's Jan 2018. SE Wake Dec 2010 would be the last storm. For most of Charlotte, it's Feb 2014.

The area of NC that's arguably most "due" for a 6"+ event is Montgomery Co into extreme western Moore & far SE Stanly County, that haven't seen one since Feb 2004. They've come close, but no cigar several times since then.

Of course, the Wilmington area and far southern coastal plain hasn't seen a 6"+ snow event in over 30 years, the last one being the big pre-Christmas snowstorm in December 1989 that dropped up to 20" in Longwood

View attachment 93318
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Here's a table of the snowstorm ranked in descending order in terms of the area of the state encompassed by each one, I calculated using python. Dec 2018 gave ~40% of NC their most recent 6"+ snow event, including Asheville & Greensboro. Dec 2010 & Jan 2018 are really close.

Screen Shot 2021-10-23 at 9.12.31 AM.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ok, here you go. Northern third of Wake Co it's obviously Dec 2018, for most of central - SW Wake, it's Jan 2018. SE Wake Dec 2010 would be the last storm. For most of Charlotte, it's Feb 2014.

The area of NC that's arguably most "due" for a 6"+ event is Montgomery Co into extreme western Moore & far SE Stanly County, that haven't seen one since Feb 2004. They've come close, but no cigar several times since then.

Of course, the Wilmington area and far southern coastal plain hasn't seen a 6"+ snow event in over 30 years, the last one being the big pre-Christmas snowstorm in December 1989 that dropped up to 20" in Longwood

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I know it could be too much to ask but what about 4 inches? This is the standard for your classic winter storm in NC (I know for Eastern portions it’s like 3) I’m sure more get in on the luck there
 
Webberweather53 said:
The good news is in La Nina winters, the differences between haves and have nots is smaller (usually), nature usually spreads the wealth much more evenly east of the mountains. Plus, we’re more likely to get high latitude pacific blocking/-EPO/-WPO in a Nina to drive air from Siberia into N America. I feel like we honestly need that to get a good storm nowadays, -NAO on its own doesn’t deliver cold enough air consistently as last year showed. I had so much cold rain :(

I’ll be back in NC for the holidays. Gonna root for either warm enough weather to go golfing or a snowstorm ?
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The best way to spread the wealth equally is for us all to get skunked! ?
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I know it could be too much to ask but what about 4 inches? This is the standard for your classic winter storm in NC (I know for Eastern portions it’s like 3) I’m sure more get in on the luck there
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This is a 4"+ map, broken down by winter. From the Triangle - Charlotte & pts NW at least one 4"+ event has occurred in the past few years. Into the south-central coastal plain and south-southeast side of the Charlotte metro, you have to go back to 2013-14. Right along the coast in Brunswick county south of Wilmington, they haven't seen a 4"+ event since 1989.

Most Recent 4%22+ Snowstorm NC Snow Map.jpg
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is a 4"+ map, broken down by winter. From the Triangle - Charlotte & pts NW at least one 4"+ event has occurred in the past few years. Into the south-central coastal plain and south-southeast side of the Charlotte metro, you have to go back to 2013-14. Right along the coast in Brunswick county south of Wilmington, they haven't seen a 4"+ event since 1989.

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Wow great stuff. What I think is most interesting is the lower the snow amount per event the more expansive the area that has received and also more recent the event seems to arise. This helps keep the weenie snow mentality at least a little intact with an almost assurance that lower snow events but still winter storm criteria have more chance of occurring for a wider portion of area per year. Also the more you increase it’s almost like it breaks down the climo of the region as you go towards the coast the events become more scattered and farther away as you shouldn’t expect to see bigger snows on the beach vs gradually as you head towards the mountains it’s the opposite as CAD and elevation help the chances of those types of snows occurring at every level.. very interesting way to plot things in my opinion.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is a 4"+ map, broken down by winter. From the Triangle - Charlotte & pts NW at least one 4"+ event has occurred in the past few years. Into the south-central coastal plain and south-southeast side of the Charlotte metro, you have to go back to 2013-14. Right along the coast in Brunswick county south of Wilmington, they haven't seen a 4"+ event since 1989.

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Man I'm due a 4" plus snow
 
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