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Wintry Winter 2021-2022 predictions

Tarheel1

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You jumping on the train that this winter may not be as terrible as some are saying with me?
You and Fro on one of those two men train track riders with the 2 handles like a see saw, riding it off the cliff!
 

Tarheel1

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All years with similar ocean SSTs as this year (analogs) with a similar GOA blob/La nina, warm waters in/around the maritime continent View attachment 90599View attachment 90600View attachment 90601View attachment 90602View attachment 90604analogs for all those years combined View attachment 90605
The one @Fountainguy97 did last year wasn’t 100% spot on but man it wasn’t far off, we saw similar blocking to 2010 this last winter (2010 was a big analog), and just such average wx conditions, again, this doesn’t mean snow, you can have a below normal winter and not get much snow but have a above normal winter and get above average snow
I don’t think I could fathom how cold that would be up here! Cold and dry! Bring it!
 

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We seem to be headed for a neutral ENSO year, If that ends up the case then maybe Feb won't be a lost month. Right now my thinking is wild temp swings and our trend this year of near/below average precip continuing. Though if the Pacific cooperates this year we might see a bigger chance for cold outbreaks and winter storm chances.

Also if we get a good snowpack to the north of us then we probably won't see the repeat of CAD failures we saw last year.
 
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We seem to be headed for a neutral ENSO year, If that ends up the case then maybe Feb won't be a lost month. Right now my thinking is wild temp swings and our trend this year of near/below average precip continuing. Though if the Pacific cooperates this year we might see a bigger chance for cold outbreaks and winter storm chances.

Also if we get a good snowpack to the north of us then we probably won't see the repeat of CAD failures we saw last year.
Not so sure on that… and we counting on February save us… we are doomed.
 

GaWx

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Yay, +2.5 to +4 F anomalies averaged over DJF in DFW, MEM, BHM, ATL, GSP, RDU, SAV, GNV, and all points in between (see corresponding CFSv2 2M maps below) in typical La Nina fashion for the South! (Of these, RDU is coolest at +2.5 F.)

@Myfrotho704_ and @Lickwx would love. Actually, I'd love it too because that would still mean 56 F, or a 25 F drop from the cool summer SAV just had! The point is that it is very hard for me to not enjoy the winter. Many days with dews in the 20s-40s even in most mild winters even down here.
CFSv2TwoMeterDec21.png

CFSv2TwoMeterJan22.png

CFSv2TwoMeterFeb22.png

Edit: Of course, most seasonal models can't forecast their way out of a paper bag. But a mild winter would still be favored.
 
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GaWx

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So natural gas prices are through the roof. So yes, winter is going to be frigid. Murphy's law seldom fails.
NG prices are through the roof mainly because of low domestic storage combined with very high demand for LNG exports to Europe and Asia. This high export demand is due to both of them having had a cold winter last winter thus depleting their supplies, too.
 

cd2play

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Yay, +2.5 to +4 F anomalies averaged over DJF in DFW, MEM, BHM, ATL, GSP, RDU, SAV, GNV, and all points in between (see corresponding CFSv2 2M maps below) in typical La Nina fashion for the South! (Of these, RDU is coolest at +2.5 F.)

@Myfrotho704_ and @Lickwx would love. Actually, I'd love it too because that would still mean 56 F, or a 25 F drop from the cool summer SAV just had! The point is that it is very hard for me to not enjoy the winter. Many days with dews in the 20s-40s even in most mild winters even down here.
View attachment 90729

View attachment 90730

View attachment 90731

Edit: Of course, most seasonal models can't forecast their way out of a paper bag. But a mild winter would still be favored.
The good news is we can torch and still thread the needle. I.E. 2016
 

Myfrotho704_

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Yay, +2.5 to +4 F anomalies averaged over DJF in DFW, MEM, BHM, ATL, GSP, RDU, SAV, GNV, and all points in between (see corresponding CFSv2 2M maps below) in typical La Nina fashion for the South! (Of these, RDU is coolest at +2.5 F.)

@Myfrotho704_ and @Lickwx would love. Actually, I'd love it too because that would still mean 56 F, or a 25 F drop from the cool summer SAV just had! The point is that it is very hard for me to not enjoy the winter. Many days with dews in the 20s-40s even in most mild winters even down here.
View attachment 90729

View attachment 90730

View attachment 90731

Edit: Of course, most seasonal models can't forecast their way out of a paper bag. But a mild winter would still be favored.
That’s a pattern susceptible to cold even for us given a cold modeled source region in Canada, which would be the opposite of last year
 

GaWx

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That’s a pattern susceptible to cold even for us given a cold modeled source region in Canada, which would be the opposite of last year
I'm confident that just like for just about any winter, there will be a few cold shots. That's the beauty of winter: it is never stagnant. Something for everyone. I'm saying that realizing that a cold Canada doesn't necessarily correlate all that well to a cold SE US since that can mean the strong cold is tending to stay up there or just getting into the N US instead of often plunging deep down into the SE. That is common in La Nina, too. I could easily see much of Canada as well as Chicago and Minneapolis cold while the SE, especially deep SE, is mild in typical La Nina fashion. Mild would still be fine with me because winters overall are almost always enjoyable for me plus there'd still be some cold shots. You should like that because you'd get plenty of mild days.

Looking at old maps, some of the SE's coldest days were when Canada was very warm vs their normals.
 
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NG prices are through the roof mainly because of low domestic storage combined with very high demand for LNG exports to Europe and Asia. This high export demand is due to both of them having had a cold winter last winter thus depleting their supplies, too.
Yes, and this is the time of year that domestic storage is normally in full swing but has been squeezed by IDA and the new Administrations's domestic fuel constraints. Natural gas prices have doubled in the past eight months.
 

Myfrotho704_

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I'm confident that just like for just about any winter, there will be a few cold shots. That's the beauty of winter: it is never stagnant. Something for everyone. I'm saying that realizing that a cold Canada doesn't necessarily correlate all that well to a cold SE US since that can mean the strong cold is tending to stay up there or just getting into the N US instead of often plunging deep down into the SE. That is common in La Nina, too. I could easily see much of Canada as well as Chicago and Minneapolis cold while the SE, especially deep SE, is mild in typical La Nina fashion. Mild would still be fine with me because winters overall are almost always enjoyable for me plus there'd still be some cold shots. You should like that because you'd get plenty of mild days.

Looking at old maps, some of the SE's coldest days were when Canada was very warm vs their normals.
yes it would likely be warmer then avg in parts of Canada during the SE coldest days given it often takes a amplified jet stream (ridge in western Canada), it’s pretty key however to have a cold source region prior for less moderation/slightly more cold with a already approaching cold airmass
 

SD

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Yay, +2.5 to +4 F anomalies averaged over DJF in DFW, MEM, BHM, ATL, GSP, RDU, SAV, GNV, and all points in between (see corresponding CFSv2 2M maps below) in typical La Nina fashion for the South! (Of these, RDU is coolest at +2.5 F.)

@Myfrotho704_ and @Lickwx would love. Actually, I'd love it too because that would still mean 56 F, or a 25 F drop from the cool summer SAV just had! The point is that it is very hard for me to not enjoy the winter. Many days with dews in the 20s-40s even in most mild winters even down here.
View attachment 90729

View attachment 90730

View attachment 90731

Edit: Of course, most seasonal models can't forecast their way out of a paper bag. But a mild winter would still be favored.
Yeah 2m sucked but if we get a widespread snow followed by 70s 5 days later and the monthly composite is +3 does anyone care? Lol.

I'm more interested in how the cfs manages the pacific and polar regions versus what it kicks out imby right now. There seems to be some growing support for more of a -EPO and the pv to potentially be in Canada instead of Siberia
 

GaWx

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Yeah 2m sucked but if we get a widespread snow followed by 70s 5 days later and the monthly composite is +3 does anyone care? Lol.

I'm more interested in how the cfs manages the pacific and polar regions versus what it kicks out imby right now. There seems to be some growing support for more of a -EPO and the pv to potentially be in Canada instead of Siberia
Although I love it, I never expect any snow or other wintry precip down here since a large majority of winters have had none. So, I don’t need wintry precip to make it a good winter. Otherwise only about 20% would be good with many of those having only a trace. I mainly root for not having a mild winter as just having that is much more realistic. Now having a significant wintry precip event will often make the winter fantastic due to the rarity such as was the case in 2017-18, 1989-90, 1976-7, 1972-3, and 1967-8 among others.
 

FallsLake

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Yay, +2.5 to +4 F anomalies averaged over DJF in DFW, MEM, BHM, ATL, GSP, RDU, SAV, GNV, and all points in between (see corresponding CFSv2 2M maps below) in typical La Nina fashion for the South! (Of these, RDU is coolest at +2.5 F.)

@Myfrotho704_ and @Lickwx would love. Actually, I'd love it too because that would still mean 56 F, or a 25 F drop from the cool summer SAV just had! The point is that it is very hard for me to not enjoy the winter. Many days with dews in the 20s-40s even in most mild winters even down here.
View attachment 90729

View attachment 90730

View attachment 90731

Edit: Of course, most seasonal models can't forecast their way out of a paper bag. But a mild winter would still be favored.
Yeah definitely a la nina look; but with the cold sitting to our north CAD events can overperform. This would be a case where the overall winter temps average above normal but we still score a few good winter events. I'll take my chances. Also blocking is an unknown. Maybe we score another year like 1996.
 

pcbjr

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Although I love it, I never expect any snow or other wintry precip down here since a large majority of winters have had none. So, I don’t need wintry precip to make it a good winter. Otherwise only about 20% would be good with many of those having only a trace. I mainly root for not having a mild winter as just having that is much more realistic. Now having a significant wintry precip event will often make the winter fantastic due to the rarity such as was the case in 2017-18, 1989-90, 1976-7, 1972-3, and 1967-8 among others.
just crank the radiator, Larry, and we're cool (pun intended) ... 🤣
 

Mr. Golf

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Seasonal models I don't believe can predict a ao/nao this far out. Just two weeks out on average. They going by normal laniña climatology which they should do currently. Now by November is a different story on some models. Also a few really good forecasters start nailing things down
 

SD

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Wouldn't this indicate strongly positive AO? Just like two years ago? Maybe we will actually get some decent CAD for a change.

View attachment 90768
It's probably neutral to slightly negative. If the cfs were to verify close in reality we would have a great pattern at the high latitudes but mediocre at best in the mid latitudes. Still though the idea of keeping the cold in Canada is exciting to me
 
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It's probably neutral to slightly negative. If the cfs were to verify close in reality we would have a great pattern at the high latitudes but mediocre at best in the mid latitudes. Still though the idea of keeping the cold in Canada is exciting to me
Yeah if only pattern don’t stay mostly zonal. Cold will just move east to the north
 
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