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Wintry Winter 2021-2022 predictions

GaWx said:
Yay, +2.5 to +4 F anomalies averaged over DJF in DFW, MEM, BHM, ATL, GSP, RDU, SAV, GNV, and all points in between (see corresponding CFSv2 2M maps below) in typical La Nina fashion for the South! (Of these, RDU is coolest at +2.5 F.)

@Myfrotho704_ and @Lickwx would love. Actually, I'd love it too because that would still mean 56 F, or a 25 F drop from the cool summer SAV just had! The point is that it is very hard for me to not enjoy the winter. Many days with dews in the 20s-40s even in most mild winters even down here.
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Edit: Of course, most seasonal models can't forecast their way out of a paper bag. But a mild winter would still be favored.
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Yeah 2m sucked but if we get a widespread snow followed by 70s 5 days later and the monthly composite is +3 does anyone care? Lol.

I'm more interested in how the cfs manages the pacific and polar regions versus what it kicks out imby right now. There seems to be some growing support for more of a -EPO and the pv to potentially be in Canada instead of Siberia
 
SD said:
Yeah 2m sucked but if we get a widespread snow followed by 70s 5 days later and the monthly composite is +3 does anyone care? Lol.

I'm more interested in how the cfs manages the pacific and polar regions versus what it kicks out imby right now. There seems to be some growing support for more of a -EPO and the pv to potentially be in Canada instead of Siberia
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Although I love it, I never expect any snow or other wintry precip down here since a large majority of winters have had none. So, I don’t need wintry precip to make it a good winter. Otherwise only about 20% would be good with many of those having only a trace. I mainly root for not having a mild winter as just having that is much more realistic. Now having a significant wintry precip event will often make the winter fantastic due to the rarity such as was the case in 2017-18, 1989-90, 1976-7, 1972-3, and 1967-8 among others.
 
GaWx said:
Yay, +2.5 to +4 F anomalies averaged over DJF in DFW, MEM, BHM, ATL, GSP, RDU, SAV, GNV, and all points in between (see corresponding CFSv2 2M maps below) in typical La Nina fashion for the South! (Of these, RDU is coolest at +2.5 F.)

@Myfrotho704_ and @Lickwx would love. Actually, I'd love it too because that would still mean 56 F, or a 25 F drop from the cool summer SAV just had! The point is that it is very hard for me to not enjoy the winter. Many days with dews in the 20s-40s even in most mild winters even down here.
View attachment 90729

View attachment 90730

View attachment 90731

Edit: Of course, most seasonal models can't forecast their way out of a paper bag. But a mild winter would still be favored.
Click to expand...
Yeah definitely a la nina look; but with the cold sitting to our north CAD events can overperform. This would be a case where the overall winter temps average above normal but we still score a few good winter events. I'll take my chances. Also blocking is an unknown. Maybe we score another year like 1996.
 
GaWx said:
Although I love it, I never expect any snow or other wintry precip down here since a large majority of winters have had none. So, I don’t need wintry precip to make it a good winter. Otherwise only about 20% would be good with many of those having only a trace. I mainly root for not having a mild winter as just having that is much more realistic. Now having a significant wintry precip event will often make the winter fantastic due to the rarity such as was the case in 2017-18, 1989-90, 1976-7, 1972-3, and 1967-8 among others.
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just crank the radiator, Larry, and we're cool (pun intended) ... ?
 
Seasonal models I don't believe can predict a ao/nao this far out. Just two weeks out on average. They going by normal laniña climatology which they should do currently. Now by November is a different story on some models. Also a few really good forecasters start nailing things down
 
Wouldn't this indicate strongly positive AO? Just like two years ago? Maybe we will actually get some decent CAD for a change.

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J.C. said:
Wouldn't this indicate strongly positive AO? Just like two years ago? Maybe we will actually get some decent CAD for a change.

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It's probably neutral to slightly negative. If the cfs were to verify close in reality we would have a great pattern at the high latitudes but mediocre at best in the mid latitudes. Still though the idea of keeping the cold in Canada is exciting to me
 
SD said:
It's probably neutral to slightly negative. If the cfs were to verify close in reality we would have a great pattern at the high latitudes but mediocre at best in the mid latitudes. Still though the idea of keeping the cold in Canada is exciting to me
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Yeah if only pattern don’t stay mostly zonal. Cold will just move east to the north
 
SD said:
It's probably neutral to slightly negative. If the cfs were to verify close in reality we would have a great pattern at the high latitudes but mediocre at best in the mid latitudes. Still though the idea of keeping the cold in Canada is exciting to me
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Looking back it doesn't look like RDU has gotten into the teens since 2019, couldn't find a longer stretch in history of not getting that low. So basically anything we can do to get real cold to a better relative location can't hurt us here. Even if it does mainly stay up in Canada.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
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Euro monthly H5 departure forecast vs 1981-2010 climo: fwiw since seasonal models are highly inaccurate, especially 3-5 months out like these
It is forecasting a -AO Dec-Jan and a neutral AO in Feb. It has Dec near normal at 2m in the SE US. Fortunately for folks like you and @Lickwx but unfortunately for those preferring a BN SE, it has a massive Aleutian high, consistent with La Nina climo and the opposite of the Aleutian low that is best for SE cold, for Jan-Feb leading to a mild SE in Jan-Feb at 2m. And that's not taking into account the cold bias that this and most models have had overall for years:


EuroMonthlyH5AnomsDec20.png

EuroMonthly2MAnomsDec20.png




EuroMonthlyH5AnomsJan21.png

EuroMonthly2MAnomsJan21.png



EuroMonthlyH5AnomsFeb21.png

EuroMonthly2MAnomsFeb21.png
 
Mr. Golf said:
I think most believe in niñas, winter usually starts early and ends quick. I know the ecmwf seasonal indicated a -epo. Not sure I believe that quite yet?
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Yeah, except, last winter was an example of why you can't just rely on Nina climo. Weather patterns (cause and effect) are not as reliable as they used to be. I think this winter will surprise some folks.
 
I’ve continued to watch closely the temperatures at Alaska’s north slope over to the northern Yukon. As has been the case the whole summer, temperatures there continue to run well below what they’ve seen the last few years… for example they were still seeing temperatures well into the 40s and into the 50s. Most of these areas are now seeing diurnal spreads between 30-36 degrees which is impressive considering they are still seeing around 13 hours of daylight. As we go past the equinox next week, they will quickly begin to lose more daylight and about 3 weeks from now they’ll be having nearly 14 hours of night. So it looks as though these source regions will have cold air available come late fall and into the early part of winter.
 
Ok everyone I never got around to doing a full on Analog study for this winter BUT I have thrown together some stuff for us to look at today.

I haven't critiqued this as hardcore as I normally would so I'd say the room for error is on the higher side than normal, BUT this seems to be a generally good group of analogs.

First up here is a comparison of the SST average of the analogs to the last 30 days of SST. Surprisingly this group turned out to be very close to the current SST map. So we can be confident in our SST comparison. The DJF period for these analogs is a moderate Nina. Its actually a very similar global state to the current SST.
comp of SST.png


I'll spare us all the individual years and stuff. Here are the temp and 500mb analogs for DJF.

These analogs also roughly align with this years June-August temp profile. Although not perfect It is close enough IMO to consider them a good analog based off temp data.

You can see we follow a pretty classic winter pattern for the Eastern US. Mixed signal December but a cold January followed by cold Central US for February. These years all feature at least one -nao month in winter and most of them have more than that. So that similarity to last year should hold true this winter.

Dec Mine.pngJan Mine.pngFeb Mine.pngDec-Feb MA.png

No surprise our precipitation follows the standard La Nina pattern here.

Dec-Feb Precip MA.png


One Curve Ball
These analogs have two years with extremely low hurricane ace. This doesn't seem to impact our January or February but it has some pretty serious impacts to our December when we take those two out. I'm not sure how much weight to give this so I didn't change my analog group based off it but there is a correlation in this group for high ace and a cold December. Is this just a coincidence?

December minus low ACE.png


And finally here are the snowfall anomalies for these years. One thing that stands out is the fact that nearly every analog features a single "big dog" across the Southern US. It seems like these analogs indicate an increased chance of a large legit southern snow storm this year.

snow 1.pngsnow 2.png


Overall I would say chances are we have a normal December, Cold January, normal to AN February with an increased chance of a widespread southern storm likely in January. This also generally matches up well with the thinking that a repeat Nina typically repeats the overall pattern of the previous one although on a muted scale. Like I said I didn't deep dive into this too much so take it for what its worth! I'm rooting for you southern guys this winter :D
 
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Fountainguy97 said:
Ok everyone I never got around to doing a full on Analog study for this winter BUT I have thrown together some stuff for us to look at today.

I haven't critiqued this as hardcore as I normally would so I'd say the room for error is on the higher side than normal, BUT this seems to be a generally good group of analogs.

First up here is a comparison of the SST average of the analogs to the last 30 days of SST. Surprisingly this group turned out to be very close to the current SST map. So we can be confident in our SST comparison. The DJF period for these analogs is a moderate Nina. Its actually a very similar global state to the current SST.
View attachment 90821


I'll spare us all the individual years and stuff. Here are the temp and 500mb analogs for DJF.

These analogs also roughly align with this years June-August temp profile. Although not perfect It is close enough IMO to consider them a good analog based off temp data.

You can see we follow a pretty classic winter pattern for the Eastern US. Mixed signal December but a cold January followed by cold Central US for February. These years all feature at least one -nao month in winter and most of them have more than that. So that similarity to last year should hold true this winter.

View attachment 90822View attachment 90827View attachment 90826View attachment 90824

No surprise our precipitation follows the standard La Nina pattern here.

View attachment 90825


One Curve Ball
These analogs have two years with extremely low hurricane ace. This doesn't seem to impact our January or February but it has some pretty serious impacts to our December when we take those two out. I'm not sure how much weight to give this so I didn't change my analog group based off it but there is a correlation in this group for high ace and a cold December. Is this just a coincidence?

View attachment 90823


And finally here are the snowfall anomalies for these years. One thing that stands out is the fact that nearly every analog features a single "big dog" across the Southern US. It seems like these analogs indicate an increased chance of a large legit southern snow storm this year.

View attachment 90828View attachment 90829


Overall I would say chances are we have a normal December, Cold January, normal to AN February with an increased chance of a widespread southern storm likely in January. This also generally matches up well with the thinking that a repeat Nina typically repeats the overall pattern of the previous one although on a muted scale. Like I said I didn't deep dive into this too much so take it for what its worth! I'm rooting for you southern guys this winter :D
Click to expand...


Where can I find these analogs at?
 
wxdaniel said:
Where can I find these analogs at?
Click to expand...
You need to input the data (selected months/years) and refine/choose what you are looking to "discover" but this will get you started ...

NOAA/NCEI U.S. Climate Division Data Plots: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

US Department of Commerce, NOAA, Physical Sciences Laboratory
psl.noaa.gov psl.noaa.gov

Monthly/Seasonal Composites: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

US Department of Commerce, NOAA, Physical Sciences Laboratory
psl.noaa.gov psl.noaa.gov

6-hourly NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Composites: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

US Department of Commerce, NOAA, Physical Sciences Laboratory
psl.noaa.gov psl.noaa.gov

20thC Reanalysis Daily Composites: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

US Department of Commerce, NOAA, Physical Sciences Laboratory
psl.noaa.gov psl.noaa.gov

as a sick example, here's the past few years for "winter" ...

Screen Shot 2021-09-15 at 3.31.04 PM.png
 
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Fountainguy97 said:
Ok everyone I never got around to doing a full on Analog study for this winter BUT I have thrown together some stuff for us to look at today.

I haven't critiqued this as hardcore as I normally would so I'd say the room for error is on the higher side than normal, BUT this seems to be a generally good group of analogs.

First up here is a comparison of the SST average of the analogs to the last 30 days of SST. Surprisingly this group turned out to be very close to the current SST map. So we can be confident in our SST comparison. The DJF period for these analogs is a moderate Nina. Its actually a very similar global state to the current SST.
View attachment 90821


I'll spare us all the individual years and stuff. Here are the temp and 500mb analogs for DJF.

These analogs also roughly align with this years June-August temp profile. Although not perfect It is close enough IMO to consider them a good analog based off temp data.

You can see we follow a pretty classic winter pattern for the Eastern US. Mixed signal December but a cold January followed by cold Central US for February. These years all feature at least one -nao month in winter and most of them have more than that. So that similarity to last year should hold true this winter.

View attachment 90822View attachment 90827View attachment 90826View attachment 90824

No surprise our precipitation follows the standard La Nina pattern here.

View attachment 90825


One Curve Ball
These analogs have two years with extremely low hurricane ace. This doesn't seem to impact our January or February but it has some pretty serious impacts to our December when we take those two out. I'm not sure how much weight to give this so I didn't change my analog group based off it but there is a correlation in this group for high ace and a cold December. Is this just a coincidence?

View attachment 90823


And finally here are the snowfall anomalies for these years. One thing that stands out is the fact that nearly every analog features a single "big dog" across the Southern US. It seems like these analogs indicate an increased chance of a large legit southern snow storm this year.

View attachment 90828View attachment 90829


Overall I would say chances are we have a normal December, Cold January, normal to AN February with an increased chance of a widespread southern storm likely in January. This also generally matches up well with the thinking that a repeat Nina typically repeats the overall pattern of the previous one although on a muted scale. Like I said I didn't deep dive into this too much so take it for what its worth! I'm rooting for you southern guys this winter :D
Click to expand...
Very well presented..... This is pretty much in line with my thinking as well.
 
pcbjr said:
You need to input the data (selected months/years) and refine/choose what you are looking to "discover" but this will get you started ...

NOAA/NCEI U.S. Climate Division Data Plots: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

US Department of Commerce, NOAA, Physical Sciences Laboratory
psl.noaa.gov psl.noaa.gov

Monthly/Seasonal Composites: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

US Department of Commerce, NOAA, Physical Sciences Laboratory
psl.noaa.gov psl.noaa.gov

6-hourly NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Composites: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

US Department of Commerce, NOAA, Physical Sciences Laboratory
psl.noaa.gov psl.noaa.gov

20thC Reanalysis Daily Composites: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

US Department of Commerce, NOAA, Physical Sciences Laboratory
psl.noaa.gov psl.noaa.gov

as a sick example, here's the past few years for "winter" ...

View attachment 90854
Click to expand...
Why do you choose those years of all years? Just curious ??
 
Mr. Golf said:
Why do you choose those years of all years? Just curious ??
Click to expand...
I chose them off the shelf to make a point ... even composites can paint any picture the artist wants ... and I stressed you need to add the proper variables to even have some clue as to what may happen ... having said as much, here is the composite, year to year-tear, since 2015 ... not a pretty picture painted ...

cd98.180.247.146.258.15.13.23.prcp.png

... much would prefer this ... even with inflation ...

cd98.180.247.146.258.15.18.7.prcp.png

... but that was luck of a lifetime ... ;) ?

PPS ... I also just really wanted to give @wxdaniel some answer to his question ... ?
 
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pcbjr said:
I chose them off the shelf to make a point ... even composites can paint any picture the artist wants ... and I stressed you need to add the proper variables to even have some clue as to what may happen ... having said as much, here is the composite, year to year-tear, since 2015 ... not a pretty picture painted ...

View attachment 90918

... much would prefer this ... even with inflation ...

View attachment 90919

... but that was luck of a lifetime ... ;) ?

PPS ... I also just really wanted to give @wxdaniel some answer to his question ... ?
Click to expand...

Thanks Jr.
 
Tell me if I'm reading this wrong. At the current ENSO the composite and frequency looks good, however the forecast is for the SST to cool sending it to a La Niño

lanina.jfm.temp.gif

lanina.jfm.snow.gif

lanina.jfm.precip.gif
 

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wxdaniel said:
Tell me if I'm reading this wrong. At the current ENSO the composite and frequency looks good, however the forecast is for the SST to cool sending it to a La Niño

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Yes it is expected to cool into a Niña. Keep in mind though that unlike the MJO, which appears to have effects on the pattern right away, the ENSO has more of a lag time that can take a few months to see the effects on the pattern. That’s one of the reasons that while I think December and and the first 3 weeks of January could produce some significant cold shots with shots at winter storms along with big temperature swings, by February the Niña should be taking over the pattern and we should see an early spring.
 
Chazwin said:
Yes it is expected to cool into a Niña. Keep in mind though that unlike the MJO, which appears to have effects on the pattern right away, the ENSO has more of a lag time that can take a few months to see the effects on the pattern. That’s one of the reasons that while I think December and and the first 3 weeks of January could produce some significant cold shots with shots at winter storms along with big temperature swings, by February the Niña should be taking over the pattern and we should see an early spring.
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hopefully as a severe weather lover we can get early jump on it next spring also...
 
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