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Wintry Winter 2021-2022 predictions

Yay, +2.5 to +4 F anomalies averaged over DJF in DFW, MEM, BHM, ATL, GSP, RDU, SAV, GNV, and all points in between (see corresponding CFSv2 2M maps below) in typical La Nina fashion for the South! (Of these, RDU is coolest at +2.5 F.)

@Myfrotho704_ and @Lickwx would love. Actually, I'd love it too because that would still mean 56 F, or a 25 F drop from the cool summer SAV just had! The point is that it is very hard for me to not enjoy the winter. Many days with dews in the 20s-40s even in most mild winters even down here.
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Edit: Of course, most seasonal models can't forecast their way out of a paper bag. But a mild winter would still be favored.
Yeah 2m sucked but if we get a widespread snow followed by 70s 5 days later and the monthly composite is +3 does anyone care? Lol.

I'm more interested in how the cfs manages the pacific and polar regions versus what it kicks out imby right now. There seems to be some growing support for more of a -EPO and the pv to potentially be in Canada instead of Siberia
 
Yeah 2m sucked but if we get a widespread snow followed by 70s 5 days later and the monthly composite is +3 does anyone care? Lol.

I'm more interested in how the cfs manages the pacific and polar regions versus what it kicks out imby right now. There seems to be some growing support for more of a -EPO and the pv to potentially be in Canada instead of Siberia

Although I love it, I never expect any snow or other wintry precip down here since a large majority of winters have had none. So, I don’t need wintry precip to make it a good winter. Otherwise only about 20% would be good with many of those having only a trace. I mainly root for not having a mild winter as just having that is much more realistic. Now having a significant wintry precip event will often make the winter fantastic due to the rarity such as was the case in 2017-18, 1989-90, 1976-7, 1972-3, and 1967-8 among others.
 
Yay, +2.5 to +4 F anomalies averaged over DJF in DFW, MEM, BHM, ATL, GSP, RDU, SAV, GNV, and all points in between (see corresponding CFSv2 2M maps below) in typical La Nina fashion for the South! (Of these, RDU is coolest at +2.5 F.)

@Myfrotho704_ and @Lickwx would love. Actually, I'd love it too because that would still mean 56 F, or a 25 F drop from the cool summer SAV just had! The point is that it is very hard for me to not enjoy the winter. Many days with dews in the 20s-40s even in most mild winters even down here.
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Edit: Of course, most seasonal models can't forecast their way out of a paper bag. But a mild winter would still be favored.
Yeah definitely a la nina look; but with the cold sitting to our north CAD events can overperform. This would be a case where the overall winter temps average above normal but we still score a few good winter events. I'll take my chances. Also blocking is an unknown. Maybe we score another year like 1996.
 
Although I love it, I never expect any snow or other wintry precip down here since a large majority of winters have had none. So, I don’t need wintry precip to make it a good winter. Otherwise only about 20% would be good with many of those having only a trace. I mainly root for not having a mild winter as just having that is much more realistic. Now having a significant wintry precip event will often make the winter fantastic due to the rarity such as was the case in 2017-18, 1989-90, 1976-7, 1972-3, and 1967-8 among others.
just crank the radiator, Larry, and we're cool (pun intended) ... ?
 
Seasonal models I don't believe can predict a ao/nao this far out. Just two weeks out on average. They going by normal laniña climatology which they should do currently. Now by November is a different story on some models. Also a few really good forecasters start nailing things down
 
Wouldn't this indicate strongly positive AO? Just like two years ago? Maybe we will actually get some decent CAD for a change.

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Wouldn't this indicate strongly positive AO? Just like two years ago? Maybe we will actually get some decent CAD for a change.

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It's probably neutral to slightly negative. If the cfs were to verify close in reality we would have a great pattern at the high latitudes but mediocre at best in the mid latitudes. Still though the idea of keeping the cold in Canada is exciting to me
 
It's probably neutral to slightly negative. If the cfs were to verify close in reality we would have a great pattern at the high latitudes but mediocre at best in the mid latitudes. Still though the idea of keeping the cold in Canada is exciting to me
Yeah if only pattern don’t stay mostly zonal. Cold will just move east to the north
 
It's probably neutral to slightly negative. If the cfs were to verify close in reality we would have a great pattern at the high latitudes but mediocre at best in the mid latitudes. Still though the idea of keeping the cold in Canada is exciting to me
Looking back it doesn't look like RDU has gotten into the teens since 2019, couldn't find a longer stretch in history of not getting that low. So basically anything we can do to get real cold to a better relative location can't hurt us here. Even if it does mainly stay up in Canada.
 


Euro monthly H5 departure forecast vs 1981-2010 climo: fwiw since seasonal models are highly inaccurate, especially 3-5 months out like these
It is forecasting a -AO Dec-Jan and a neutral AO in Feb. It has Dec near normal at 2m in the SE US. Fortunately for folks like you and @Lickwx but unfortunately for those preferring a BN SE, it has a massive Aleutian high, consistent with La Nina climo and the opposite of the Aleutian low that is best for SE cold, for Jan-Feb leading to a mild SE in Jan-Feb at 2m. And that's not taking into account the cold bias that this and most models have had overall for years:


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I think most believe in niñas, winter usually starts early and ends quick. I know the ecmwf seasonal indicated a -epo. Not sure I believe that quite yet?
Yeah, except, last winter was an example of why you can't just rely on Nina climo. Weather patterns (cause and effect) are not as reliable as they used to be. I think this winter will surprise some folks.
 
I’ve continued to watch closely the temperatures at Alaska’s north slope over to the northern Yukon. As has been the case the whole summer, temperatures there continue to run well below what they’ve seen the last few years… for example they were still seeing temperatures well into the 40s and into the 50s. Most of these areas are now seeing diurnal spreads between 30-36 degrees which is impressive considering they are still seeing around 13 hours of daylight. As we go past the equinox next week, they will quickly begin to lose more daylight and about 3 weeks from now they’ll be having nearly 14 hours of night. So it looks as though these source regions will have cold air available come late fall and into the early part of winter.
 
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