Dewpoint Dan
Member
This is the most ridiculous looking map i've ever seen.Oh hell yeah 85-north nor easters
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This is the most ridiculous looking map i've ever seen.Oh hell yeah 85-north nor easters
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Map is way too busy. But I'm glad to be north of the battle zone for a change. And I have a whole county buffer too!Oh hell yeah 85-north nor easters
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Map is way too busy. But I'm glad to be north of the battle zone for a change. And I have a whole county buffer too!
That’s coming from dt….? Looks pretty bias ask me… lolMap is way too busy. But I'm glad to be north of the battle zone for a change. And I have a whole county buffer too!
Lol no way DT put that together. He still uses MS Paint '98That’s coming from dt….? Looks pretty bias ask me… lol
Ok everyone I never got around to doing a full on Analog study for this winter BUT I have thrown together some stuff for us to look at today.
I haven't critiqued this as hardcore as I normally would so I'd say the room for error is on the higher side than normal, BUT this seems to be a generally good group of analogs.
First up here is a comparison of the SST average of the analogs to the last 30 days of SST. Surprisingly this group turned out to be very close to the current SST map. So we can be confident in our SST comparison. The DJF period for these analogs is a moderate Nina. Its actually a very similar global state to the current SST.
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I'll spare us all the individual years and stuff. Here are the temp and 500mb analogs for DJF.
These analogs also roughly align with this years June-August temp profile. Although not perfect It is close enough IMO to consider them a good analog based off temp data.
You can see we follow a pretty classic winter pattern for the Eastern US. Mixed signal December but a cold January followed by cold Central US for February. These years all feature at least one -nao month in winter and most of them have more than that. So that similarity to last year should hold true this winter.
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No surprise our precipitation follows the standard La Nina pattern here.
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One Curve Ball
These analogs have two years with extremely low hurricane ace. This doesn't seem to impact our January or February but it has some pretty serious impacts to our December when we take those two out. I'm not sure how much weight to give this so I didn't change my analog group based off it but there is a correlation in this group for high ace and a cold December. Is this just a coincidence?
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And finally here are the snowfall anomalies for these years. One thing that stands out is the fact that nearly every analog features a single "big dog" across the Southern US. It seems like these analogs indicate an increased chance of a large legit southern snow storm this year.
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Overall I would say chances are we have a normal December, Cold January, normal to AN February with an increased chance of a widespread southern storm likely in January. This also generally matches up well with the thinking that a repeat Nina typically repeats the overall pattern of the previous one although on a muted scale. Like I said I didn't deep dive into this too much so take it for what its worth! I'm rooting for you southern guys this winter
You need to input the data (selected months/years) and refine/choose what you are looking to "discover" but this will get you started ...Where can I find these analogs at?
Very well presented..... This is pretty much in line with my thinking as well.Ok everyone I never got around to doing a full on Analog study for this winter BUT I have thrown together some stuff for us to look at today.
I haven't critiqued this as hardcore as I normally would so I'd say the room for error is on the higher side than normal, BUT this seems to be a generally good group of analogs.
First up here is a comparison of the SST average of the analogs to the last 30 days of SST. Surprisingly this group turned out to be very close to the current SST map. So we can be confident in our SST comparison. The DJF period for these analogs is a moderate Nina. Its actually a very similar global state to the current SST.
View attachment 90821
I'll spare us all the individual years and stuff. Here are the temp and 500mb analogs for DJF.
These analogs also roughly align with this years June-August temp profile. Although not perfect It is close enough IMO to consider them a good analog based off temp data.
You can see we follow a pretty classic winter pattern for the Eastern US. Mixed signal December but a cold January followed by cold Central US for February. These years all feature at least one -nao month in winter and most of them have more than that. So that similarity to last year should hold true this winter.
View attachment 90822View attachment 90827View attachment 90826View attachment 90824
No surprise our precipitation follows the standard La Nina pattern here.
View attachment 90825
One Curve Ball
These analogs have two years with extremely low hurricane ace. This doesn't seem to impact our January or February but it has some pretty serious impacts to our December when we take those two out. I'm not sure how much weight to give this so I didn't change my analog group based off it but there is a correlation in this group for high ace and a cold December. Is this just a coincidence?
View attachment 90823
And finally here are the snowfall anomalies for these years. One thing that stands out is the fact that nearly every analog features a single "big dog" across the Southern US. It seems like these analogs indicate an increased chance of a large legit southern snow storm this year.
View attachment 90828View attachment 90829
Overall I would say chances are we have a normal December, Cold January, normal to AN February with an increased chance of a widespread southern storm likely in January. This also generally matches up well with the thinking that a repeat Nina typically repeats the overall pattern of the previous one although on a muted scale. Like I said I didn't deep dive into this too much so take it for what its worth! I'm rooting for you southern guys this winter
Why do you choose those years of all years? Just curious ??You need to input the data (selected months/years) and refine/choose what you are looking to "discover" but this will get you started ...
NOAA/NCEI U.S. Climate Division Data Plots: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory
US Department of Commerce, NOAA, Physical Sciences Laboratorypsl.noaa.gov
Monthly/Seasonal Composites: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory
US Department of Commerce, NOAA, Physical Sciences Laboratorypsl.noaa.gov
6-hourly NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Composites: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory
US Department of Commerce, NOAA, Physical Sciences Laboratorypsl.noaa.gov
20thC Reanalysis Daily Composites: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory
US Department of Commerce, NOAA, Physical Sciences Laboratorypsl.noaa.gov
as a sick example, here's the past few years for "winter" ...
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Why do you choose those years of all years? Just curious ??
15-16 was strong elniño. Ultimately it will depend on HLB if its present or notI believe those are La Nina winters
Oof looks good to me, weenies will dislikeSince my last post about it being warm got deleted here you go. Lovely. 2 things I love the most in winter. warm and dry! 31-32 baby!
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Per climate archive 1931-32 was totally non-winter until MarchSince my last post about it being warm got deleted here you go. Lovely. 2 things I love the most in winter. warm and dry! 31-32 baby!
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I chose them off the shelf to make a point ... even composites can paint any picture the artist wants ... and I stressed you need to add the proper variables to even have some clue as to what may happen ... having said as much, here is the composite, year to year-tear, since 2015 ... not a pretty picture painted ...Why do you choose those years of all years? Just curious ??
I chose them off the shelf to make a point ... even composites can paint any picture the artist wants ... and I stressed you need to add the proper variables to even have some clue as to what may happen ... having said as much, here is the composite, year to year-tear, since 2015 ... not a pretty picture painted ...
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... much would prefer this ... even with inflation ...
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... but that was luck of a lifetime ... ?
PPS ... I also just really wanted to give @wxdaniel some answer to his question ... ?
Yes it is expected to cool into a Niña. Keep in mind though that unlike the MJO, which appears to have effects on the pattern right away, the ENSO has more of a lag time that can take a few months to see the effects on the pattern. That’s one of the reasons that while I think December and and the first 3 weeks of January could produce some significant cold shots with shots at winter storms along with big temperature swings, by February the Niña should be taking over the pattern and we should see an early spring.Tell me if I'm reading this wrong. At the current ENSO the composite and frequency looks good, however the forecast is for the SST to cool sending it to a La Niño
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hopefully as a severe weather lover we can get early jump on it next spring also...Yes it is expected to cool into a Niña. Keep in mind though that unlike the MJO, which appears to have effects on the pattern right away, the ENSO has more of a lag time that can take a few months to see the effects on the pattern. That’s one of the reasons that while I think December and and the first 3 weeks of January could produce some significant cold shots with shots at winter storms along with big temperature swings, by February the Niña should be taking over the pattern and we should see an early spring.