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Wintry Winter 2021-2022 predictions

All years with similar ocean SSTs as this year (analogs) with a similar GOA blob/La nina, warm waters in/around the maritime continent F4A7ECD6-500C-4A65-95CE-009ECA0E009A.png204976AB-6A00-4194-A942-147B0653FB0B.pngD71C10D0-7CE8-42D9-ABA6-78E1EAC65150.pngEAE4AB03-4B5D-4181-8B80-9E05CACB97E8.png10E6324A-B7A5-43DA-A555-884794B2DB8F.pnganalogs for all those years combined D51B6350-D27B-42DA-B7A2-C8C8397F3AC1.png
The one @Fountainguy97 did last year wasn’t 100% spot on but man it wasn’t far off, we saw similar blocking to 2010 this last winter (2010 was a big analog), and just such average wx conditions, again, this doesn’t mean snow, you can have a below normal winter and not get much snow but have a above normal winter and get above average snow
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
All years with similar ocean SSTs as this year (analogs) with a similar GOA blob/La nina, warm waters in/around the maritime continent View attachment 90599View attachment 90600View attachment 90601View attachment 90602View attachment 90604analogs for all those years combined View attachment 90605
The one @Fountainguy97 did last year wasn’t 100% spot on but man it wasn’t far off, we saw similar blocking to 2010 this last winter (2010 was a big analog), and just such average wx conditions, again, this doesn’t mean snow, you can have a below normal winter and not get much snow but have a above normal winter and get above average snow
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Imo, either the Pacific was more hostile or the -nao was more east based last winter. 2010-11 was completely west based -nao
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
All years with similar ocean SSTs as this year (analogs) with a similar GOA blob/La nina, warm waters in/around the maritime continent View attachment 90599View attachment 90600View attachment 90601View attachment 90602View attachment 90604analogs for all those years combined View attachment 90605
The one @Fountainguy97 did last year wasn’t 100% spot on but man it wasn’t far off, we saw similar blocking to 2010 this last winter (2010 was a big analog), and just such average wx conditions, again, this doesn’t mean snow, you can have a below normal winter and not get much snow but have a above normal winter and get above average snow
Click to expand...
You jumping on the train that this winter may not be as terrible as some are saying with me?
 
SD said:
You jumping on the train that this winter may not be as terrible as some are saying with me?
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I'll go along with you. I'd say a very slim chance NC, Upstate SC and NE Georgia suck as bad as the last 2 in the snow dept. Hard to believe we'll do it for a 3rd year in a row. Temps? Who knows? AN seems to be the theme lately so I'll go AN temps and AN snowfall for most. Except CAE lol
 
SD said:
You jumping on the train that this winter may not be as terrible as some are saying with me?
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Yeah, while second year ninas can be bad, I think dec-Jan look solid to me, I think we overall see something like the euro seasonal for December, I expect something solid for our areas, some areas (Charlotte for example) is stupidly overdue for a inch of snow
 
This progression seems reasonable, especially if there’s a SSW/stretching event that keeps getting picked up by models and it actually happens, Jan may be overdone however, but dec looks solid to me and feb looks about right with the classic nina SER influence 6FF2B5E3-29EE-4AF8-BD41-33B94187EC47.png7A274B54-94B3-4947-B359-58CD6F60E495.png5092290A-B2A2-4C53-A377-B555031DE69B.png
 
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It would be cool if a January 2016 type storm happened again for the East Coast in general.

This sounds weird but I would be okay with not getting much wintry precip in a storm if it means I'm part of an overall historic system.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
All years with similar ocean SSTs as this year (analogs) with a similar GOA blob/La nina, warm waters in/around the maritime continent View attachment 90599View attachment 90600View attachment 90601View attachment 90602View attachment 90604analogs for all those years combined View attachment 90605
The one @Fountainguy97 did last year wasn’t 100% spot on but man it wasn’t far off, we saw similar blocking to 2010 this last winter (2010 was a big analog), and just such average wx conditions, again, this doesn’t mean snow, you can have a below normal winter and not get much snow but have a above normal winter and get above average snow
Click to expand...

I've been meaning to get a batch of analogs together. This is a weird year with 2nd year Niña. From the initial poking around I've done it looks like a lot of times these years often closely resemble the years prior but a little warmer. I think -nao was a big reason for our cooler temps last year.
 
SD said:
You jumping on the train that this winter may not be as terrible as some are saying with me?
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You and Fro on one of those two men train track riders with the 2 handles like a see saw, riding it off the cliff!
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
All years with similar ocean SSTs as this year (analogs) with a similar GOA blob/La nina, warm waters in/around the maritime continent View attachment 90599View attachment 90600View attachment 90601View attachment 90602View attachment 90604analogs for all those years combined View attachment 90605
The one @Fountainguy97 did last year wasn’t 100% spot on but man it wasn’t far off, we saw similar blocking to 2010 this last winter (2010 was a big analog), and just such average wx conditions, again, this doesn’t mean snow, you can have a below normal winter and not get much snow but have a above normal winter and get above average snow
Click to expand...
I don’t think I could fathom how cold that would be up here! Cold and dry! Bring it!
 
We seem to be headed for a neutral ENSO year, If that ends up the case then maybe Feb won't be a lost month. Right now my thinking is wild temp swings and our trend this year of near/below average precip continuing. Though if the Pacific cooperates this year we might see a bigger chance for cold outbreaks and winter storm chances.

Also if we get a good snowpack to the north of us then we probably won't see the repeat of CAD failures we saw last year.
 
SimeonNC said:
We seem to be headed for a neutral ENSO year, If that ends up the case then maybe Feb won't be a lost month. Right now my thinking is wild temp swings and our trend this year of near/below average precip continuing. Though if the Pacific cooperates this year we might see a bigger chance for cold outbreaks and winter storm chances.

Also if we get a good snowpack to the north of us then we probably won't see the repeat of CAD failures we saw last year.
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Not so sure on that… and we counting on February save us… we are doomed.
 
So natural gas prices are through the roof. So yes, winter is going to be frigid. Murphy's law seldom fails.
 
SD said:
Woof View attachment 90720
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Yay, +2.5 to +4 F anomalies averaged over DJF in DFW, MEM, BHM, ATL, GSP, RDU, SAV, GNV, and all points in between (see corresponding CFSv2 2M maps below) in typical La Nina fashion for the South! (Of these, RDU is coolest at +2.5 F.)

@Myfrotho704_ and @Lickwx would love. Actually, I'd love it too because that would still mean 56 F, or a 25 F drop from the cool summer SAV just had! The point is that it is very hard for me to not enjoy the winter. Many days with dews in the 20s-40s even in most mild winters even down here.
CFSv2TwoMeterDec21.png

CFSv2TwoMeterJan22.png

CFSv2TwoMeterFeb22.png

Edit: Of course, most seasonal models can't forecast their way out of a paper bag. But a mild winter would still be favored.
 
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Wild Weather Monger said:
So natural gas prices are through the roof. So yes, winter is going to be frigid. Murphy's law seldom fails.
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NG prices are through the roof mainly because of low domestic storage combined with very high demand for LNG exports to Europe and Asia. This high export demand is due to both of them having had a cold winter last winter thus depleting their supplies, too.
 
GaWx said:
Yay, +2.5 to +4 F anomalies averaged over DJF in DFW, MEM, BHM, ATL, GSP, RDU, SAV, GNV, and all points in between (see corresponding CFSv2 2M maps below) in typical La Nina fashion for the South! (Of these, RDU is coolest at +2.5 F.)

@Myfrotho704_ and @Lickwx would love. Actually, I'd love it too because that would still mean 56 F, or a 25 F drop from the cool summer SAV just had! The point is that it is very hard for me to not enjoy the winter. Many days with dews in the 20s-40s even in most mild winters even down here.
View attachment 90729

View attachment 90730

View attachment 90731

Edit: Of course, most seasonal models can't forecast their way out of a paper bag. But a mild winter would still be favored.
Click to expand...
The good news is we can torch and still thread the needle. I.E. 2016
 
GaWx said:
Yay, +2.5 to +4 F anomalies averaged over DJF in DFW, MEM, BHM, ATL, GSP, RDU, SAV, GNV, and all points in between (see corresponding CFSv2 2M maps below) in typical La Nina fashion for the South! (Of these, RDU is coolest at +2.5 F.)

@Myfrotho704_ and @Lickwx would love. Actually, I'd love it too because that would still mean 56 F, or a 25 F drop from the cool summer SAV just had! The point is that it is very hard for me to not enjoy the winter. Many days with dews in the 20s-40s even in most mild winters even down here.
View attachment 90729

View attachment 90730

View attachment 90731

Edit: Of course, most seasonal models can't forecast their way out of a paper bag. But a mild winter would still be favored.
Click to expand...
That’s a pattern susceptible to cold even for us given a cold modeled source region in Canada, which would be the opposite of last year
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That’s a pattern susceptible to cold even for us given a cold modeled source region in Canada, which would be the opposite of last year
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I'm confident that just like for just about any winter, there will be a few cold shots. That's the beauty of winter: it is never stagnant. Something for everyone. I'm saying that realizing that a cold Canada doesn't necessarily correlate all that well to a cold SE US since that can mean the strong cold is tending to stay up there or just getting into the N US instead of often plunging deep down into the SE. That is common in La Nina, too. I could easily see much of Canada as well as Chicago and Minneapolis cold while the SE, especially deep SE, is mild in typical La Nina fashion. Mild would still be fine with me because winters overall are almost always enjoyable for me plus there'd still be some cold shots. You should like that because you'd get plenty of mild days.

Looking at old maps, some of the SE's coldest days were when Canada was very warm vs their normals.
 
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GaWx said:
NG prices are through the roof mainly because of low domestic storage combined with very high demand for LNG exports to Europe and Asia. This high export demand is due to both of them having had a cold winter last winter thus depleting their supplies, too.
Click to expand...
Yes, and this is the time of year that domestic storage is normally in full swing but has been squeezed by IDA and the new Administrations's domestic fuel constraints. Natural gas prices have doubled in the past eight months.
www.foxbusiness.com

Natural gas prices, supply signal expensive winter heating bills

Oil prices are not the only commodity climbing. Natural gas prices are surging and supplies are dwindling a lethal combo for that winter heating bill.
www.foxbusiness.com www.foxbusiness.com
 
GaWx said:
I'm confident that just like for just about any winter, there will be a few cold shots. That's the beauty of winter: it is never stagnant. Something for everyone. I'm saying that realizing that a cold Canada doesn't necessarily correlate all that well to a cold SE US since that can mean the strong cold is tending to stay up there or just getting into the N US instead of often plunging deep down into the SE. That is common in La Nina, too. I could easily see much of Canada as well as Chicago and Minneapolis cold while the SE, especially deep SE, is mild in typical La Nina fashion. Mild would still be fine with me because winters overall are almost always enjoyable for me plus there'd still be some cold shots. You should like that because you'd get plenty of mild days.

Looking at old maps, some of the SE's coldest days were when Canada was very warm vs their normals.
Click to expand...
yes it would likely be warmer then avg in parts of Canada during the SE coldest days given it often takes a amplified jet stream (ridge in western Canada), it’s pretty key however to have a cold source region prior for less moderation/slightly more cold with a already approaching cold airmass
 
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