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Wintry Winter 2021-2022 predictions

All years with similar ocean SSTs as this year (analogs) with a similar GOA blob/La nina, warm waters in/around the maritime continent F4A7ECD6-500C-4A65-95CE-009ECA0E009A.png204976AB-6A00-4194-A942-147B0653FB0B.pngD71C10D0-7CE8-42D9-ABA6-78E1EAC65150.pngEAE4AB03-4B5D-4181-8B80-9E05CACB97E8.png10E6324A-B7A5-43DA-A555-884794B2DB8F.pnganalogs for all those years combined D51B6350-D27B-42DA-B7A2-C8C8397F3AC1.png
The one @Fountainguy97 did last year wasn’t 100% spot on but man it wasn’t far off, we saw similar blocking to 2010 this last winter (2010 was a big analog), and just such average wx conditions, again, this doesn’t mean snow, you can have a below normal winter and not get much snow but have a above normal winter and get above average snow
 
All years with similar ocean SSTs as this year (analogs) with a similar GOA blob/La nina, warm waters in/around the maritime continent View attachment 90599View attachment 90600View attachment 90601View attachment 90602View attachment 90604analogs for all those years combined View attachment 90605
The one @Fountainguy97 did last year wasn’t 100% spot on but man it wasn’t far off, we saw similar blocking to 2010 this last winter (2010 was a big analog), and just such average wx conditions, again, this doesn’t mean snow, you can have a below normal winter and not get much snow but have a above normal winter and get above average snow
Imo, either the Pacific was more hostile or the -nao was more east based last winter. 2010-11 was completely west based -nao
 
All years with similar ocean SSTs as this year (analogs) with a similar GOA blob/La nina, warm waters in/around the maritime continent View attachment 90599View attachment 90600View attachment 90601View attachment 90602View attachment 90604analogs for all those years combined View attachment 90605
The one @Fountainguy97 did last year wasn’t 100% spot on but man it wasn’t far off, we saw similar blocking to 2010 this last winter (2010 was a big analog), and just such average wx conditions, again, this doesn’t mean snow, you can have a below normal winter and not get much snow but have a above normal winter and get above average snow
You jumping on the train that this winter may not be as terrible as some are saying with me?
 
You jumping on the train that this winter may not be as terrible as some are saying with me?
I'll go along with you. I'd say a very slim chance NC, Upstate SC and NE Georgia suck as bad as the last 2 in the snow dept. Hard to believe we'll do it for a 3rd year in a row. Temps? Who knows? AN seems to be the theme lately so I'll go AN temps and AN snowfall for most. Except CAE lol
 
You jumping on the train that this winter may not be as terrible as some are saying with me?
Yeah, while second year ninas can be bad, I think dec-Jan look solid to me, I think we overall see something like the euro seasonal for December, I expect something solid for our areas, some areas (Charlotte for example) is stupidly overdue for a inch of snow
 
This progression seems reasonable, especially if there’s a SSW/stretching event that keeps getting picked up by models and it actually happens, Jan may be overdone however, but dec looks solid to me and feb looks about right with the classic nina SER influence 6FF2B5E3-29EE-4AF8-BD41-33B94187EC47.png7A274B54-94B3-4947-B359-58CD6F60E495.png5092290A-B2A2-4C53-A377-B555031DE69B.png
 
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It would be cool if a January 2016 type storm happened again for the East Coast in general.

This sounds weird but I would be okay with not getting much wintry precip in a storm if it means I'm part of an overall historic system.
 
All years with similar ocean SSTs as this year (analogs) with a similar GOA blob/La nina, warm waters in/around the maritime continent View attachment 90599View attachment 90600View attachment 90601View attachment 90602View attachment 90604analogs for all those years combined View attachment 90605
The one @Fountainguy97 did last year wasn’t 100% spot on but man it wasn’t far off, we saw similar blocking to 2010 this last winter (2010 was a big analog), and just such average wx conditions, again, this doesn’t mean snow, you can have a below normal winter and not get much snow but have a above normal winter and get above average snow

I've been meaning to get a batch of analogs together. This is a weird year with 2nd year Niña. From the initial poking around I've done it looks like a lot of times these years often closely resemble the years prior but a little warmer. I think -nao was a big reason for our cooler temps last year.
 
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