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Wintry Winter 2021-2022 predictions

Lickwx said:
Since my last post about it being warm got deleted here you go. Lovely. 2 things I love the most in winter. warm and dry! 31-32 baby!


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IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | Seasonal Climate Forecasts

iri.columbia.edu iri.columbia.edu
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Looks realistic and quite doable.

My 8 analogs (2nd year Nina) give me this:

DJFtemps2ndYearNina.png

SE warmth lovers like you and @Myfrotho704_ would obviously be happy with the overall mild winter. I'm expecting overall mildness, but expect one near normal month in the mix. Also, those who like a severe cold shot in the mix would like 1971-2, 1984-5, 1999-2000 (in NC), and 2017-8 while those who like a major winter storm would like 1999-2000, 2008-9, and 2017-8 (even I got a major winter storm Jan of 2018 along with the coldest week here in decades). And all winters have at least several cold periods, regardless. So, something for all in the SE to hope for. And I'll be happy no matter the wx because it will at least 25 colder than this summer!

Here's precip:
DJFprecip2ndYearNina.png
 
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Agree with GAWX. Good call. More Mildness than Cold for sure. We should squeak out a threat or two. Probably get one decent 5-7 day Cold/BN outbreak. Usually La nina you get roller coastered with temps, favoring normal to slightly AN the majority of the time. Catch alot of great Golf weather, minus the wind. 50-55 with full sun is perfect. No bugs ,sweat.

Its always about the Pacific for the SE. what happens in the NE Pac, pattern that sets up shop there, has the biggest influence on our wx pattern down here. Root for a locked in +PNA first and foremost.
 
NCSNOW said:
Agree with GAWX. Good call. More Mildness than Cold for sure. We should squeak out a threat or two. Probably get one decent 5-7 day Cold/BN outbreak. Usually La nina you get roller coastered with temps, favoring normal to slightly AN the majority of the time. Catch alot of great Golf weather, minus the wind. 50-55 with full sun is perfect. No bugs ,sweat.

Its always about the Pacific for the SE. what happens in the NE Pac, pattern that sets up shop there, has the biggest influence on our wx pattern down here. Root for a locked in +PNA first and foremost.
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We had amazing blocking last year over Greenland. The Pacific just didn't want to help out.
 
People are really hyping up this winter in videos I've been looking at recently .. I so doubt that since the past three years were suppose to be crazy too.. but I guess the optimism is hopefully some believe it could be an early start and a lot of talk about models agreeing on displacement in the Arctic in December
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
People are really hyping up this winter in videos I've been looking at recently .. I so doubt that since the past three years were suppose to be crazy too.. but I guess the optimism is hopefully some believe it could be an early start and a lot of talk about models agreeing on displacement in the Arctic in December
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That’s every year buddy, there has not been 1 single winter that was not hyped as going to be a cold one .
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
People are really hyping up this winter in videos I've been looking at recently .. I so doubt that since the past three years were suppose to be crazy too.. but I guess the optimism is hopefully some believe it could be an early start and a lot of talk about models agreeing on displacement in the Arctic in December
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Fountainguy97 said:
You can see we follow a pretty classic winter pattern for the Eastern US. Mixed signal December but a cold January followed by cold Central US for February. These years all feature at least one -nao month in winter and most of them have more than that. So that similarity to last year should hold true this winter.

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No surprise our precipitation follows the standard La Nina pattern here.

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With September in the books here are my analogs compared to sep 2021. Abt as close
As you can get for a match.
FA84FB3E-D9F1-476C-987C-AEE232415414.pngD22383F6-62B9-4F9C-B774-08A59806A3A8.png8B6BDC03-D5A0-47D9-9B19-A0D3133053C4.pngAFB807BC-B2DB-4F44-8269-93FA78A64FE5.png

October becomes very flippy in my analogs. Basically dead even split between warm/cool SE. October is starting warm nationally. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
With September in the books here are my analogs compared to sep 2021. Abt as close
As you can get for a match.
View attachment 91912View attachment 91913View attachment 91915View attachment 91914

October becomes very flippy in my analogs. Basically dead even split between warm/cool SE. October is starting warm nationally. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds.
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Not too shabby ... taking your years and running them for the same winters as a composite, you get this ...


cd98.180.247.146.280.13.28.21.prcp.png

Though if you knock Nov out of the mix, it is a little less exciting (IMBY by a 1/2 degree F ... LOL ...) ...

cd98.180.247.146.280.13.37.58.prcp.png
 
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pcbjr said:
Not too shabby ... taking your years and running them for the same winters as a composite, you get this ...


View attachment 92376

Though if you knock Nov out of the mix, it is a little less exciting (IMBY by a 1/2 degree F ... LOL ...) ...

View attachment 92380
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Yeah and this might be a problem if it doesn’t change soon.
e6d114f04ba6df788dbf0f1c4d7553e0.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
whatalife said:
Yeah and this might be a problem if it doesn’t change soon.
e6d114f04ba6df788dbf0f1c4d7553e0.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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If we can just get all of the oceans all the way yellow and orange, we should be good to start looking at other things again. The Atlantic is almost there. We just have that mess near AK and in the central Pacific to work on.
 
I will say that the general outlook, pretty much across the board, going into winter is one of the bleaknest in recent memory. I think that bodes well.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
So many winter forecasts I see online say cold and snowy winter for us ?? I wonder what compels these people to continue to call for a cold snowy winter every year when it continues to never be lmao
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Just like people on here come on every day, thinking Birdman might have made a quality post! Hope springs eternal for snow weenies, until April! ?☃️?
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
So many winter forecasts I see online say cold and snowy winter for us ?? I wonder what compels these people to continue to call for a cold snowy winter every year when it continues to never be lmao
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These must be from the typical 13 and under crowd with YouTube channels.
 
Rain Cold said:
These must be from the typical 13 and under crowd with YouTube channels.
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Exactly. I doubt you'll find a pro other than JB hype cold and snow in the SE this year. Snow is always a wildcard, but too much working against us to realistically think we'll have a cold winter. Some analogs above offer some hope I suppose, but a disaster like 11-12 has a high probability also.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Exactly. I doubt you'll find a pro other than JB hype cold and snow in the SE this year. Snow is always a wildcard, but too much working against us to realistically think we'll have a cold winter. Some analogs above offer some hope I suppose, but a disaster like 11-12 has a high probability also.
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“Disaster” sounds overly dramatic to describe a mild winter, which is likely to occur and won’t hurt anyone. If anything, it would help the homeless as well as help those already struggling financially from the potential of very high heating costs. Energy prices are already way up vs recent years, largely due to shortages in Europe and Asia. The last thing the US as a whole needs now is a widespread cold winter in the E US to cause them to skyrocket further. If we’re talking “disaster”, a cold winter there would be closer to causing that from an economic standpoint. Embrace the “warmth” like an increasing number here already do. Even with a mild winter, temperatures will still be cooling off 20-25+ degrees from where they are now and there will be a few cold snaps.

All indications I’ve studied, including today, strongly suggest a mild winter for the SE US. Even though it isn’t what I prefer, I will happily embrace the mild instead of fighting the nearly inevitable and whining about it. Enjoy the weather as it is the only weather you’ve got.
 
GaWx said:
“Disaster” sounds overly dramatic to describe a mild winter, which is likely to occur and won’t hurt anyone. If anything, it would help the homeless as well as help those already struggling financially from the potential of very high heating costs. Energy prices are already way up vs recent years, largely due to shortages in Europe and Asia. The last thing the US as a whole needs now is a widespread cold winter in the E US to cause them to skyrocket further. If we’re talking “disaster”, a cold winter there would be closer to causing that from an economic standpoint. Embrace the “warmth” like an increasing number here already do. Even with a mild winter, temperatures will still be cooling off 20-25+ degrees from where they are now and there will be a few cold snaps.

All indications I’ve studied, including today, strongly suggest a mild winter for the SE US. Even though it isn’t what I prefer, I will happily embrace the mild instead of fighting the nearly inevitable and whining about it. Enjoy the weather as it is the only weather you’ve got.
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Come on man! I would never wish financial or physical hardship on anyone! By saying a disaster like 11-12 I meant from a winter weather standpoint. My area and most likely all areas east of the mountains are in a bad snow drought. I've had 20% of my already low snowfall average over the last 2 years. Another year like 11-12 right now where not even a single sleet pellet falls is a disaster from a snowlovers perspective.

I know it'll likely be warm. For some reason that's the way it is in the SE anymore. I have my opinions why but there's another thread for that. I've accepted winters of my childhood are long gone. I come on here every winter and get hammered by cold lovers because I always go warm. But it's not unreasonable to wish for average snowfall, or even above average snowfall even in a mild winter.
 
GaWx said:
“Disaster” sounds overly dramatic to describe a mild winter, which is likely to occur and won’t hurt anyone. If anything, it would help the homeless as well as help those already struggling financially from the potential of very high heating costs. Energy prices are already way up vs recent years, largely due to shortages in Europe and Asia. The last thing the US as a whole needs now is a widespread cold winter in the E US to cause them to skyrocket further. If we’re talking “disaster”, a cold winter there would be closer to causing that from an economic standpoint. Embrace the “warmth” like an increasing number here already do. Even with a mild winter, temperatures will still be cooling off 20-25+ degrees from where they are now and there will be a few cold snaps.

All indications I’ve studied, including today, strongly suggest a mild winter for the SE US. Even though it isn’t what I prefer, I will happily embrace the mild instead of fighting the nearly inevitable and whining about it. Enjoy the weather as it is the only weather you’ve got.
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agree, a mild winter isnt a bad thing.
 
I'm a little concerned about our la nina. Recent trends have really strengthened it into winter. If we end up with a strong Nina I wont be surprised to see the Southeast struggle with warmth and storm track. We need a muted Nina that doesn't dominate but unfortunately there is a lot of data that is suggesting we may end up with a very strong ENSO this winter.

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Thor said:
Writing off winter on October 10th.....that always works out. ?. It's like saying this summer doesn't look too hot in April.
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Nobody is “writing off” winter. Acknowledging the likelihood of a warmer than normal SE winter and writing off winter are not the same thing. Even I have repeatedly said to still expect a few cold periods even if the winter is mild as they’re almost guaranteed every year. Also, I didn’t say that a mild winter was a certainty. Nobody could ever say that. In addition, a good number here have stated they only really care about getting snow. For that reason, these same folks have many times said dry cold is “wasted cold” and that they’d rather it be mild than dry cold. Go back and look at the past winter threads. The fact is that much of the cold in most of the nonmountainous SE comes with no snow….even up in a place like Raleigh.

Do you and others here enjoy dry cold? I know some do (I actually do but then again cold down here is fairly infrequent), but there have been a lot of complaints here in recent years about dry cold and that they’d rather it be mild if there’s no snow. For those people, the best bet would be a mild winter with a couple of snows thrown in between the mainly mild periods. With the threat of very high heating costs this winter due to much higher prices already and shortages overseas, that would be the best of both worlds this winter. Snow lovers get their snow and dry cold haters would be more content along with not too high energy bills.
 
GaWx said:
Nobody is “writing off” winter. Acknowledging the likelihood of a warmer than normal SE winter and writing off winter are not the same thing. Even I have repeatedly said to still expect a few cold periods even if the winter is mild as they’re almost guaranteed every year. Also, I didn’t say that a mild winter was a certainty. Nobody could ever say that. In addition, a good number here have stated they only really care about getting snow. For that reason, these same folks have many times said dry cold is “wasted cold” and that they’d rather it be mild than dry cold. Go back and look at the past winter threads. The fact is that much of the cold in most of the nonmountainous SE comes with no snow….even up in a place like Raleigh.

Do you and others here enjoy dry cold? I know some do (I actually do but then again cold down here is fairly infrequent), but there have been a lot of complaints here in recent years about dry cold and that they’d rather it be mild if there’s no snow. For those people, the best bet would be a mild winter with a couple of snows thrown in between the mainly mild periods. With the threat of very high heating costs this winter due to much higher prices already and shortages overseas, that would be the best of both worlds this winter. Snow lovers get their snow and dry cold haters would be more content along with not too high energy bills.
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I all for the lighter utility bills this winter … money saved
 
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