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Wintry Winter 2021-2022 predictions

SnowNiner

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No matter what we think about it, I think this Winter will be the one where we all start considering global warming a bit more seriously than we previously had.

I've pretty much lost all expectations the last few years. It just doesn't seem to want to snow anymore in the Carolina Piedmont for whatever reason.
 

cd2play

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No matter what we think about it, I think this Winter will be the one where we all start considering global warming a bit more seriously than we previously had.

I've pretty much lost all expectations the last few years. It just doesn't seem to want to snow anymore in the Car for whatever reason.
Fixed
 

Lickwx

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I wish I could find the link to the NC Climate Office study about the faborable patterns for snow in the Triangle. I know we have had the most favorable pattern a couple of times the last few years and didn't get squat.
Remember , if we are ever under a slight chance, or some sort of advisory , or in a statistically favorable pattern … it will never ever possibly work for us . Remember ! It has to always sneak up on us .

Did I use your logic properly?
 

Brick Tamland

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Remember , if we are ever under a slight chance, or some sort of advisory , or in a statistically favorable pattern … it will never ever possibly work for us . Remember ! It has to always sneak up on us .

Did I use your logic properly?
That only happens with storms. And if you go back the last 10 years you will actually see that my area does get more storms when I am not under any kind of watch and better storms when there is less hype about severe weather than when there is.
 

MamaJen

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I am a total amateur weather nerd, I freely admit that. I know all the models, etc, aren’t showing much for the south as a whole anytime soon. But since we’re basically all just guessing at the moment (haha!) I thought I’d add my prediction, just for posterity (and probably eventual mockery 😂). But, I’ve got to say - I’ve seen really strange bird migration behavior here in N. Georgia - we had our entire front yard *full* of literally (cuz I counted) 40+ robins a few days ago - I have never seen that in the 16+ years I’ve lived here. We usually have robins all year long, but I’ve never seen so very many at once, especially this time of year. My hummingbirds are fighting over the feeders even more than usual, about 2-3 weeks earlier than they usually freak out. My cats and dog are shedding like you wouldn’t believe, about a month before they usually do. We had a few days of the typical orb weaver spider invasion we see every fall, but they’ve largely all gone away, already. There’s been a lot of earthquakes recently, at least it seems so to me (totally unscientific observation, I’ll admit), and I do think that’s somehow connected to weather. So, if I had to just instinctively guess, I’m thinking front loaded cold here where I am in N. Georgia. Maybe not a lot of snow, but it’s going to be cold, and early. And I still believe we are way overdue for a major ice storm here, so I’ll leave that on the table. Again - this is all just a guess, and I try to stay quiet and listen to the experts when things are actually interesting. But thought it might be ok to throw my random thoughts out there right now. Love learning from all you guys, btw! :)
 

Myfrotho704_

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All years with similar ocean SSTs as this year (analogs) with a similar GOA blob/La nina, warm waters in/around the maritime continent F4A7ECD6-500C-4A65-95CE-009ECA0E009A.png 204976AB-6A00-4194-A942-147B0653FB0B.png D71C10D0-7CE8-42D9-ABA6-78E1EAC65150.png EAE4AB03-4B5D-4181-8B80-9E05CACB97E8.png 10E6324A-B7A5-43DA-A555-884794B2DB8F.png analogs for all those years combined D51B6350-D27B-42DA-B7A2-C8C8397F3AC1.png
The one @Fountainguy97 did last year wasn’t 100% spot on but man it wasn’t far off, we saw similar blocking to 2010 this last winter (2010 was a big analog), and just such average wx conditions, again, this doesn’t mean snow, you can have a below normal winter and not get much snow but have a above normal winter and get above average snow
 

Mr. Golf

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All years with similar ocean SSTs as this year (analogs) with a similar GOA blob/La nina, warm waters in/around the maritime continent View attachment 90599View attachment 90600View attachment 90601View attachment 90602View attachment 90604analogs for all those years combined View attachment 90605
The one @Fountainguy97 did last year wasn’t 100% spot on but man it wasn’t far off, we saw similar blocking to 2010 this last winter (2010 was a big analog), and just such average wx conditions, again, this doesn’t mean snow, you can have a below normal winter and not get much snow but have a above normal winter and get above average snow
Imo, either the Pacific was more hostile or the -nao was more east based last winter. 2010-11 was completely west based -nao
 

SD

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All years with similar ocean SSTs as this year (analogs) with a similar GOA blob/La nina, warm waters in/around the maritime continent View attachment 90599View attachment 90600View attachment 90601View attachment 90602View attachment 90604analogs for all those years combined View attachment 90605
The one @Fountainguy97 did last year wasn’t 100% spot on but man it wasn’t far off, we saw similar blocking to 2010 this last winter (2010 was a big analog), and just such average wx conditions, again, this doesn’t mean snow, you can have a below normal winter and not get much snow but have a above normal winter and get above average snow
You jumping on the train that this winter may not be as terrible as some are saying with me?
 
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You jumping on the train that this winter may not be as terrible as some are saying with me?
I'll go along with you. I'd say a very slim chance NC, Upstate SC and NE Georgia suck as bad as the last 2 in the snow dept. Hard to believe we'll do it for a 3rd year in a row. Temps? Who knows? AN seems to be the theme lately so I'll go AN temps and AN snowfall for most. Except CAE lol
 

Myfrotho704_

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You jumping on the train that this winter may not be as terrible as some are saying with me?
Yeah, while second year ninas can be bad, I think dec-Jan look solid to me, I think we overall see something like the euro seasonal for December, I expect something solid for our areas, some areas (Charlotte for example) is stupidly overdue for a inch of snow
 

Myfrotho704_

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This progression seems reasonable, especially if there’s a SSW/stretching event that keeps getting picked up by models and it actually happens, Jan may be overdone however, but dec looks solid to me and feb looks about right with the classic nina SER influence 6FF2B5E3-29EE-4AF8-BD41-33B94187EC47.png 7A274B54-94B3-4947-B359-58CD6F60E495.png 5092290A-B2A2-4C53-A377-B555031DE69B.png
 
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SimeonNC

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It would be cool if a January 2016 type storm happened again for the East Coast in general.

This sounds weird but I would be okay with not getting much wintry precip in a storm if it means I'm part of an overall historic system.
 

Fountainguy97

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All years with similar ocean SSTs as this year (analogs) with a similar GOA blob/La nina, warm waters in/around the maritime continent View attachment 90599View attachment 90600View attachment 90601View attachment 90602View attachment 90604analogs for all those years combined View attachment 90605
The one @Fountainguy97 did last year wasn’t 100% spot on but man it wasn’t far off, we saw similar blocking to 2010 this last winter (2010 was a big analog), and just such average wx conditions, again, this doesn’t mean snow, you can have a below normal winter and not get much snow but have a above normal winter and get above average snow
I've been meaning to get a batch of analogs together. This is a weird year with 2nd year Niña. From the initial poking around I've done it looks like a lot of times these years often closely resemble the years prior but a little warmer. I think -nao was a big reason for our cooler temps last year.
 
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