South East Weather Center just released winter outlook on Facebook. Too long so I didn’t read it.
Seeing a good bit of chatter on Twitter regarding a Modoki type El Nino. What does everyone here think for the upcoming Winter season?
I hope to never see a winter like 2014-15 ever again. Easily my least favorite winter in my lifetime.Last year we struggled with a -PNA, but that warm blob this year close to AK is trying to rival 2014-2015, it wouldn’t hurt us and could help promote isolated bouts of ridging in the western US and increase the STJ at times, basically acts as a Nino In a way, +IOD should start weakening a bit soon but stay, so I’d go with @GaWx , a Modoki nino seems likely
I hope to never see a winter like 2014-15 ever again. Easily my least favorite winter in my lifetime.
Last year was a mess...the big GOA ridge just killed our winter, outside the first week of Dec. This was not a canonical nino pattern, especially a modoki nino. With what's looking to be a neutral enso this winter I think we will be looking at more of the same.
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It was a giant tease. Lots of cold air, lots of precip and nothing to show for it. I will take a winter like 2011-12 any day over that.What went wrong during that winter for you ? Over here in NC It was ok, if I’m not mistaken we had a nino but couldn’t get no blocking, had a decent even here but unfortunately mixed a lot with rain, ended up with 4-5 inches of a mess of sleet/snow, it wasn’t a bad setup
I basically live right on top on 85 lolPeople who love sleet, obviously don’t live S of 85, or you’d loath it!
Do we know what those bigger problems were? Cause whatever it was, I WISH it wasn't around this year into next. Lol... and yes I know the SER is almost impossible to get rid of.5 of our past 6 nino's have sucked big time...it's not the PNA. The PNA was positive all 5 of these winters, we had bigger problems that drove warmth.
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Do we know what those bigger problems were? Cause whatever it was, I WISH it wasn't around this year into next. Lol... and yes I know the SER is almost impossible to get rid of.
Do we know what those bigger problems were? Cause whatever it was, I WISH it wasn't around this year into next. Lol... and yes I know the SER is almost impossible to get rid of.
Maybe the record blocking in summer will repeat in winter if we are lucky.I like the way this Oct is modeled to start off...complete opposite of previous Octobers where the winters turned out AN.
Though I would take a 2018 winter repeat.
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I like the way this Oct is modeled to start off...complete opposite of previous Octobers where the winters turned out AN.
Though I would take a 2018 winter repeat.
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March of 2023 at that. LMAOWhile we are grasping already, how are the persimmon seeds looking?? Hopefully it’s not true that you need a freeze to ripen the persimmon, because they may not ripen until March!![]()
And with that I have found my new favorite model. #wekeepLOL the CFS is comedy gold. Here is the snow highlights. Note it goes out to late December.
Site https://www.weatheronline.co.uk
October 21st
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November 11th
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November 12th
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November 26
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December 18th
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Christmas Day
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I think it also picks up the Winter Storm in Montana so maybe it is onto something LOL. That model is super active. If only it all verified.And with that I have found my new favorite model. #wekeep
I think it also picks up the Winter Storm in Montana so maybe it is onto something LOL. That model is super active. If only it all verified.![]()
Agreed! This model seems to touch most if not all of the Southeast with snow in some capacity. The website even has a header that reads “Caution! Care should be used when using this model.” LolDecember 18 seems fun. If it verifies I will get a Southernwx tattoo!
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Maybe the record blocking in summer will repeat in winter if we are lucky.
LOL the CFS is comedy gold. Here is the snow highlights. Note it goes out to late December.
Site https://www.weatheronline.co.uk
October 21st
View attachment 24133
November 11th
View attachment 24134
November 12th
View attachment 24136
November 26
View attachment 24135
December 18th
View attachment 24138
Christmas Day
View attachment 24139
I know. I'm thinking we at least don't get blanked this winter like last year. Will definitely look forward to the day your optimistic again. ?We would have to get lucky because there’s unfortunately no correlation between summer and winter blocking.
Im not sure I understand the 2nd map.awfully early in the year to be complaining about a winter that hasn't happened ...
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