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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

The ends of both runs of the GFS Fake Version 3 are much better looking than the regular GFS.
 
Let’s see who wins. Check back on this in about 5 days. Looks like EPS has several members that don’t quite move the Scandanavian ridge to Greenland.

9851FD4E-A198-4893-A372-18123BAEC4E5.png 8DCA0313-D87E-4F7E-8298-8550BFFA495B.png
 
Rain Cold said:
The ends of both runs of the GFS Fake Version 3 are much better looking than the regular GFS.
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Well, GFS 2: Electric Boogaloo did pretty well with the hurricanes we had. Hopefully, it is just as good with winter storms. It really looks like things will start rocking when we get to December.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Well, GFS 2: Electric Boogaloo did pretty well with the hurricanes we had. Hopefully, it is just as good with winter storms. It really looks like things will start rocking when we get to December.
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Yeah, the pattern looks to be developing better than was generally expected for December. However, the two week out model progs are still going to be fraught with error. At least we're not punting December, like usual.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I wonder if he is talking about the NE or SE, or both.
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Probably the area from NC/TN/VA and north. Climo would favor that over anything. Plus, the lower heights in the SW still bother me. I'd also like to see those blue areas slightly farther south.
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah, the pattern looks to be developing better than was generally expected for December. However, the two week out model progs are still going to be fraught with error. At least we're not punting December, like usual.
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Took the words right out of my mouth (or off my keyboard as the case may be)
 
Assuming some of these ensemble predictions verify, early to mid-December could have a few potential threats to watch. As usual it will all come down to the details, timing of key pieces of energy, etc. One thing for sure, there will be plenty of cold rain falling this winter!
 
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Kylo said:
Let’s see who wins. Check back on this in about 5 days. Looks like EPS has several members that don’t quite move the Scandanavian ridge to Greenland.

View attachment 7451 View attachment 7452
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I would gladly take either one although I think we get more North Pacific blocking in the extended like the GFS shows. Even if we don’t I still like this pattern
 
C10CA584-4BF5-4003-B08D-3FF1A707BFF8.png Buckle up!
 
whatalife said:
Please take with a grain of salt and I’m assuming this pattern we are coming up to can produce this ...
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I pray we aren’t looking at this type of high pressure placement all winter..it will be a long depressing winter for MBY if that’s the case. It looks good on paper I guess but we need some cold air EAST!
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I pray we aren’t looking at this type of high pressure placement all winter..it will be a long depressing winter for MBY if that’s the case. It looks good on paper I guess but we need some cold air EAST!
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We can still get a few good wedgies!
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I pray we aren’t looking at this type of high pressure placement all winter..it will be a long depressing winter for MBY if that’s the case. It looks good on paper I guess but we need some cold air EAST!
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That setup is horrible for RDU and SC in general, but absolutely great for GA and AL. With that setup, we here would benefit from it like we did in the Dec storm last year from a deformation band.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I pray we aren’t looking at this type of high pressure placement all winter..it will be a long depressing winter for MBY if that’s the case. It looks good on paper I guess but we need some cold air EAST!
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Very true. That setup would suck for us here in SC.


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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I pray we aren’t looking at this type of high pressure placement all winter..it will be a long depressing winter for MBY if that’s the case. It looks good on paper I guess but we need some cold air EAST!
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Make that a 1045 high and we’ll do ok.
 
Rain Cold said:
Probably the area from NC/TN/VA and north. Climo would favor that over anything. Plus, the lower heights in the SW still bother me. I'd also like to see those blue areas slightly farther south.
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Yeah, it just looks like most of the cold is on the other side of the earth. We stay cool. What do we need to see at H5 to get it on our side?

gfs-ens_T2ma_nhem_62.png
 
SnowNiner said:
Yeah, it just looks like most of the cold is on the other side of the earth. We stay cool. What do we need to see at H5 to get it on our side?

gfs-ens_T2ma_nhem_62.png
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The north Pacific aint the best. It's allowing systems to move into Canada and not promoting cross-polar flow. -NAO values are nice, but you need a cold air feed to make the best use of it. But we're just spitballing over the GFS/GEFS. The Fake Version should be out soon and then the Euro. I'm not too worried about snow chances at the end of November anyway.
 
I just want to keep seeing the pattern transitioning to better chances for snow and not going the other way.
 
Rain Cold said:
The north Pacific aint the best. It's allowing systems to move into Canada and not promoting cross-polar flow. -NAO values are nice, but you need a cold air feed to make the best use of it. But we're just spitballing over the GFS/GEFS. The Fake Version should be out soon and then the Euro. I'm not too worried about snow chances at the end of November anyway.
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The longer it takes to establish the better, just as long as it gets going. The pac doesn't start improving until late in the run, hopefully as we get into December we can see the cold air start filtering back in.

Getting some solid height rises down into Hudson Bay.

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Rain Cold said:
The north Pacific aint the best. It's allowing systems to move into Canada and not promoting cross-polar flow. -NAO values are nice, but you need a cold air feed to make the best use of it. But we're just spitballing over the GFS/GEFS. The Fake Version should be out soon and then the Euro. I'm not too worried about snow chances at the end of November anyway.
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No me neither, I just want to look to see what we need down the line to get true cold. Even in the dead of January, 1-2 degrees below normal is not going to cut it in the SE.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The FV3 goes further that the GFS and looks like this. Yes that's a high dropping with established cold air in place. Let's get more fantasy maps and hope they trend closer too!
fv3p_T850_namer_65.png

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Yeah that's a better look for sure. Hopefully, the upgrade is worth the wait. If you could delete that GOA low, it would be almost as good as it gets for cold. The -NAO is perfect. The low anomaly over the NE probably squashes storm chances, though. But that would be some nice cold air.
 
I guess even when we’re not punting a month and all the indices are best we’ve ever seen, Europe gets all the cold! We just keep finding ways to win! Win baby win!
 
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