Wow. Looks like you got hammered in 2010.
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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
pcbjr
Member
NOOoooooo ... it was all a mirage ... so wake me when it happens ...
WxSouth
Ridge needs to come east. Fine where it is in the 10th and 11th months, but it better get in Gameday shape for Winter!
So much energy flying around out there. Love what I’m seeing on the 850 vort and wind maps. If we can keep this up it’s not a matter of “if” but “when”
Fountainguy97
Member
I agree. It’s been a while since I’ve seen such an active pattern heading into winter. If we get a pattern close to this active in late December into January many people will have multiple threats.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Always the big if. We can only hope for an active pattern and as already mentioned, we are just a bit too early for a pattern to provide wintery weather here though it is a cold and stormy one.
SnowNiner
Member
With a nino, the hope is yes it's going to be active, at least more active than the last few winters. Just have to figure out the temps part. Will it be cold? Will we get blocking? I don't know but November is starting to come into sight. Looks like it's going to be warm, with riding in the wrong places. Is that good or bad going into winter? I've heard both through the years.
I’d rather have it cold/below normal, in months it can actually snow! Give us a trough in the E in D,J,F, I’m good with that. I think it’s wasteful, outside of Roxboro, to have cold in Nov or March, IMOWith a nino, the hope is yes it's going to be active, at least more active than the last few winters. Just have to figure out the temps part. Will it be cold? Will we get blocking? I don't know but November is starting to come into sight. Looks like it's going to be warm, with riding in the wrong places. Is that good or bad going into winter? I've heard both through the years.
Kylo
Member
Don't like losing the Aleutian low for November, would take that as a bad sign. Hopefully it makes a quick return.
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I dont mind for a while atleast. I would love to see that zonal pattern for Nov.
tennessee storm
Member
System end next week. Bears watching. Could be our first fall severe weather threat for south
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
It's just practice now. We talkin about practice!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah for the fact that you want continued wave-1 forcing to disturb the polar vortex early on, it's usually good to keep the Aleutian Low strong, granted there are other ways to do this but at least we have a Scandinavian ridge for the foreseeable future ensuring that the PV doesn't become exceptionally strong even if the Aleutian Low falters for a while.
Something to look/hope for as we get deeper into November is to monitor the amplitude of the Scandinavian ridge. If the Scandinavian high were to amplify, it would eventually begin to retrograde westward and become a negative NAO late in November. Large, retrogressive Scandinavian ridges are actually the main pathway thru which we get long-lasting & strong negative NAOs, anticyclones "breaking" poleward from the south into Greenland & Iceland rarely work out in our favor in the long run.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Same here. And we know how things can switch from one week to the next. October went from 90 to 60 almost overnight. I'd actually rather have a warm November because I think that means we're eventually going to switch to cold down the road. We're never going to get cold for the whole winter. I'd rather start warm and switch to cold than to be cold in November and December and then switch to warm in January and February when we usually get the most snow.
You’ve said repeatedly that you don’t like it cold unless it is snowing, which is at most just a tiny bit of winter. You complain about cold all the time unless it happens to be snowing. Do you still feel this way?
I don't like when it's warm around the holidays ( November and December). Something about the cold just puts me in the holiday spirit. If I had to choose between having a cold and snowy Nov and Dec or a cold and snowy Jan or Feb, I would definitely choose Nov and Dec.
NoSnowATL
Member
I feel that way, cold is great only if it’s snowing, if it’s not snowing I want it in the 60s all winter. A cold dry day is just awful. At least when it’s warm you can do outside activities.
I will take a cold, dry day over a cold, wet day ! Unless its a wet snow !
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Just to touch on what I was alluding to earlier with regards to wave 1 forcing on the stratospheric polar vortex. Scandinavian ridge + Aleutian Low couplet is a pattern that usually helps disrupt the polar vortex if it persists because these height anomalies are superimposed onto the standing planetary waves that are tied to major topographic features (like the Himalayas & Rockies).