SimeonNC
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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Jessy89
Member
Sounds like it would be more for the north east. It has to trend a lot colder to be a snow producer for the southeast outside the mountains.
Riding whatever gets them the better ratings. Lol
SimeonNC
Member
Eh, I think the upper south might have a chance at a small event.
Jessy89
Member
That is a strong high pressure next weekend. If we can get some moisture. We might get a wintry mix for some folks
Exactly. This is probably going to be a long winter of near misses for the Eastern half of NC. It will be warm nose city around here. The MA and NE will probably get crushed this winter with this pattern.
Kylo
Member
Op GFS has been backing off the strength of the NAO block for several runs in a row now. EPS still looks great and GEFS looks solid too. Curious to see if GEFS starts to back off.
Jon
Member
Realistically it would have never been close to -4 which would be record breaking, so a -NAO between -2 and -3 is best bet, which is what the Euro and EPS have held so far. It would suck to have this trend away from us, and I’ve seen signs of it getting weaker in the LR near the turn of the month....but it’s hard for models to handle so we just have to wait. If it holds, the FV3 isn’t the only model that will show southern snows.
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Kylo
Member
pcbjr
Member
Good post, Jon.
Without doing a statistical analysis, but based on years and years on model study, it seems that by and very large, models tend to overestimate many teleconnections, but the over-estimation bias award seems to go to the longer range -NAO forecasts ...
Best and thanks for your continued and insightful observations and thoughts!
Phil
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
There's a monster westerly wind burst (WWB) lurking on the horizon once the MJO enters the western hemisphere late this month into early December.
SnowNiner
Member
Man don't start that talk. You'll mess the whole thing up! lol. As long as we keep seeing this below, I think we're gold. It seems to be getting closer and closer in too, rather than moving farther out like we're used to. The western trough seems to be fading away and the eastern trough seems to be getting stronger to our NE. Along with the split flow, I'm not sure what else we can ask for other than for it to be mid January. Hopefully it doesn't go poof. We're due for a nice -NAO/-EPO December right?
Round Oak Weather
Member
What will this do exactly?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Warming of the tropical pacific would probably occur within the first week or two of the WWB because we already have a Kelvin Wave there and if this WWB is strong enough it could trigger another downwelling Kelvin Wave that would later warm the east-central Pacific sometime in January or February, keeping us in a NINO throughout the duration of the winter and potentially into the spring
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
CFSv2 384 hour forecast because why not.
Ilovesnow28
Member
Hey Webberweather53 I'm a newbie here on this site but my question is what is a Kelvin wave and what causes it? I have a lot to learn
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A Kelvin wave is an eastward propagating wave (in this case it moves along the thermocline or the boundary in the upper ocean that separates warm near-surface water from cold water in the deep ocean). This eastward propagating wave balances earth's rotation against a barrier like the equator for instance and moves along it at 5 mph (2 meters per second) or so. The downwelling Kelvin wave marks the transition zone from upwelling on the equator to downwelling and advection (movement of something, in this instance warm water from the West Pacific) eastward to the east-central Pacific. This warm water is essentially what characterizes El Nino and these Kelvin Waves take about 2 or 3 months to cross the pacific ocean, therefore warming of the sea surface directly related to them lags by a few months as a result, hence why I mentioned January or February as a potential time frame for any new kelvin wave that forms from this westerly wind burst in the Pacific to reach the east Pacific and warm the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) there
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If you want to learn more about the Kelvin Wave, this is arguably my favorite video on the phenomena especially if you're a visual learner!
Round Oak Weather
Member
Close to something on the GFS December 2nd. Their just seems to be to much potential in that time frame for someone in the southeast not to get something.
snowlover91
Member
Speaking of Niño, here are the subsurface anomalies.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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That she blows! Upper levels and BL, need some work, but when don’t they? Can iron out the details, as we head into Dumpster December!
pcbjr
Member
Holiday Cheer ...View attachment 7482 That she blows! Upper levels and BL, need some work, but when don’t they? Can iron out the details, as we head into Dumpster December!
... but frankly, ain't nothin' worth a hoot until close to mid-December, IMHO ...
Ilovesnow28
Member
Thanks for the info webber! I'm definitely a visual learner and going to be studying more on it..
GFS FV3 has snow in Tennessee, North Carolina between the hours 234 to hour 252.
That is some pathetic high pressure. All we need now is a stronger HP to show up and shove our moisture to Puerto Rico..View attachment 7482 That she blows! Upper levels and BL, need some work, but when don’t they? Can iron out the details, as we head into Dumpster December!
The latest GFS has a southern slider except it is very suppressed and there is no cold air on December 2.
Jessy89
Member
How is it surpressed without cold air? I thought storms was surpressed when high pressure is to strong. Early indications look like no southeast snow storm the first week of December. Hope I’m wrong. Maybe mid December will look better
Jon
Member
It’s suppressed under high pressure and taps the gulf, the issue is its hour 324 and the GFS has no idea what it’s doing. What I’d take away from this is there’s an active STJ spitting out systems... it’s simply too far out to make a case for anything but that.
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cd2play
Member
That's depressing.. I mean that's suppressing
Kylo
Member
That sure is easy on the eyes. PNA ridge connected to wb NAO.
Latest GFS model still has the Gulf low but it is further south.
Maybe if we can’t get snow out of this early pattern we can at least break some land speed records
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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You serious Clark?
cd2play
Member
As long as the payout is better than a measly "Jelly of the month" club
I recommend folks don’t compare these weathermodels.com numbers for the -AO/-NAO to the ones we’re used to seeing as they are highly inflated. This has been noted the last year of two. They’re not apples to apples.
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“Suppressing” is a relative term and is anything but depressing for folks in the southern portion of the forum membership like Phil and myself. “Suppressed” is always good from our perspective.
pcbjr
Member
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Man, where you been? All these indices pointing to the greatest winter ever in the southeast! Even the unicorn-NAO! What’s your thoughts? Are we losing the -NAO on the models already?
Although Phil and myself have actually had a warmer than normal Nov so far (that will likely change in the 2nd half), the bulk of the country has been colder than normal. From research I did a number of years ago that was presented at American (one nasty guy there called it “garbage”/I’ll never forget that and is one of the reasons I’ll never go back there (terrible moderators overall)), a colder than normal SE November is partially correlated to a colder than normal SE DJF. So, I think a cold Nov (for most) is good news.