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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion (3 Viewers)

whamby

politicians discussing climate change
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#3
What ENSO state is good for southern sliders... à la Jan '88, Jan '11? (good q for Gawx, I think... or anyone).
 

EastAtlwx

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#4
just hope it brings me a significant snowfall (3-4" +) haven't seen one since 2011. This area has done bad despite several major snowfalls close by.. A significant warm nose has shunted those south and east of I-85. wow, its hard to believe its been 7 years since ive seen over 2.5" for a single event.
 

ForsythSnow

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#8
Best thread of the year! Last year was great, so this year is probably gonna be a stinker.
I'm 50/50 on whether or not I think I'm screwed this year. Everyone talks up El-Ninos like they are the best thing ever so it has to come from somewhere right? That is unless they are all NC/SC centered storms. El-Nino's are either duds here or tons of tiny snowfalls from what I have experienced. Of course no two are alike but I expect a lot more rain this winter and temps not to be as brutal. We seem to fare well here when it's a weak to moderate La-Nina but we did do well in 09-10, which was coming off a La-Nina going into an El- nino but that was closer to winter when it did than now.
 

GaWx

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#9
What ENSO state is good for southern sliders... à la Jan '88, Jan '11? (good q for Gawx, I think... or anyone).
That’s not easy to answer but what is easy to say is that a weak to moderate El Niño gives the SE US as a whole its best chance for a colder than average winter out of all ENSO. It doesn't mean it will necessarily be cold, however. And even if it is cold, that doesn’t necessarily mean wintry.
 
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#10
If there was any meteorological way to combine elements of 2009-2010, 2010-2011, 2013-2014, and 2017-2018 together for 2018-2019 this would be the ultimate winter of our lifetimes. It's difficult to pick one specific winter to want a carbon copy of again because there a pros and cons to all of the years I listed. I would want the constant influence of the Southern stream we had in 2009/10 so there's always a great opportunity to have a wintry threat. I would want a repeat of our White Christmas from 2010, only bigger and more widespread, something similar to December 2017 where most of the Southern region of the US gets in on the fun from TX to FL to the Carolinas. I would like to have some of the cold from 2010/11 and 2013/14 only more spread out throughout the season and not in short, intense bursts. Finally if all else fails I would LOVE to have that 6 week period of wintry threats we had in 2017/2018 only this time without our storm(s) getting obliterated to pieces before it makes it out of the Southwest region. I still think back every now and then how much potential was wasted last winter from late December to mid January and how epic Christmas to New Years Eve/Day COULD have been.
 
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#11
If there was any meteorological way to combine elements of 2009-2010, 2010-2011, 2013-2014, and 2017-2018 together for 2018-2019 this would be the ultimate winter of our lifetimes. It's difficult to pick one specific winter to want a carbon copy of again because there a pros and cons to all of the years I listed. I would want the constant influence of the Southern stream we had in 2009/10 so there's always a great opportunity to have a wintry threat. I would want a repeat of our White Christmas from 2010, only bigger and more widespread, something similar to December 2017 where most of the Southern region of the US gets in on the fun from TX to FL to the Carolinas. I would like to have some of the cold from 2010/11 and 2013/14 only more spread out throughout the season and not in short, intense bursts. Finally if all else fails I would LOVE to have that 6 week period of wintry threats we had in 2017/2018 only this time without our storm(s) getting obliterated to pieces before it makes it out of the Southwest region. I still think back every now and then how much potential was wasted last winter from late December to mid January and how epic Christmas to New Years Eve/Day COULD have been.
Don’t forget the toasty Feb and cold March and April, with Roxboro getting snow into April, that was fun!:mad:
 

GaWx

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#12
I probably should add that I have found El Niño’s in general to be somewhat more conducive for Miller A’s than non-El Nino’s. But I think that most winters will have a few at the minimum. Of course, not all wintertime Miller A’s will be prolific SE US wintry precip producers.
 

whatalife

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#13
I probably should add that I have found El Niño’s in general to be somewhat more conducive for Miller A’s than non-El Nino’s. But I think that most winters will have a few at the minimum. Of course, not all wintertime Miller A’s will be prolific SE US wintry precip producers.
I will second that last sentence.


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ForsythSnow

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#14
I will second that last sentence.


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Yep. Lots of them are NC or SC specials and N GA and western Carolinas storms. It all comes down to path. If it's close to the coast, its a Carolina storm. If it's inland, GA and the mountains as well as the western Carolinas get it. Every once in awhile, we will get a southern slider into a Miller A that benefits everyone. Also of course some are complete duds and it could be too warm.
 

whatalife

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#15
Yep. Lots of them are NC or SC specials and N GA and western Carolinas storms. It all comes down to path. If it's close to the coast, its a Carolina storm. If it's inland, GA and the mountains as well as the western Carolinas get it. Every once in awhile, we will get a southern slider into a Miller A that benefits everyone. Also of course some are complete duds and it could be too warm.
It’s nice to be excited about a possible El Niño but their are no guarantees. Sadly for us in the midlands we get the short in of the stick a lot of the times. While last yrs wasn’t an El Niño it does prove my point.


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SimeonNC

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#16
I want one more shot in my lifetime at a storm like 12/26/2010. RDU was a 6 hour earlier shift in H5 phase timing from getting a 30" snowstorm...
Wait are you serious? I was eleven years old back then, I never realized that storm was that close to being big lol

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Rain Cold

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#19
6 consecutive runs the European model painted 20" or more of snowfall at RDU, with some runs over 30". Even the CMC and UKMET were on board for a few runs.

P.S. Even as it were, it was a pretty big deal by NC standards. Awesome, textbook deformation band near the I-95 corridor.

I remember this one quite well. :)
 

Rain Cold

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#24
From reading various blogs, forums, and tweets, and from looking at LR model forecasts, looking at various current indexes (as well as future progs for them), and looking at some solar stuff, I’m quite optimistic about winter. It looks like we’ll be anywhere from a warm neutral to a moderate Nino, and it looks like it might be central or west-based. Given everything else, that would bode really, really well for the east. Still a long way to go, but right now, it’s hard to be pessimistic.
 

pcbjr

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#25
From reading various blogs, forums, and tweets, and from looking at LR model forecasts, looking at various current indexes (as well as future progs for them), and looking at some solar stuff, I’m quite optimistic about winter. It looks like we’ll be anywhere from a warm neutral to a moderate Nino, and it looks like it might be central or west-based. Given everything else, that would bode really, really well for the east. Still a long way to go, but right now, it’s hard to be pessimistic.
;):cool::p:D:rolleyes::)
 
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#26
I don't mean to be so uptight, but my heart's been hurt a couple of times, by some winter storms that didn't treat me right...
I ain't gonna lie, ain't gonna lie.......
 

SimeonNC

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#27
A weak modoki Nino would be best for our region, it doesn't guarantee colder but it does raise the chance for cold. There is also the STJ which leads to more storm chances in general. A good thing to keep in mind is that we don't need a cold winter overall to have big storms, just have the right conditions align at the right time.
 

GaWx

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#30
December 2010 is great & all but let's just cut to the chase here, most in central NC know what they really want, one of these :):weenie:
View attachment 5522
Per records, ATL got 0.6" of S and/or IP 3/1-2/1927. The vast majority of the 0.84" of liquid equivalent 3/1-2/1927 was rain as the high was 47 but it apparently ended as a period of snow and/or sleet as a new cold airmass came in. The high on 3/2 was only 33, which appears to have been just after midnight.
 
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