• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

GaWx said:
For those curious if any of these were major at KATL (3.5"+ is my requirement for snow), several were:
- 1/23-4/1940: 8.3" (10" downtown), near the biggest on record downtown; biggest single ATL area snowstorm in general since the big one of 1/1893; this lead to snowcover that remained for perhaps the longest on record; 9.8" Athens
- 3/2-3/1942: barely cold enough with 3.7" from 2.13" liquid equiv..so a very wet snow with mixing with rain at times I think; Athens had only 1.0" despite 1.71" liquid equiv;
- 1/22-23/1987: barely cold enough with 3.6" S/IP from 1.14" liquid equiv. but tight NW/SE gradient with mainly heavy rain and flash flooding in SE metro ATL at least early on; near 5" S/IP NE Atlanta; 7.1" Athens from 1.45" liq equiv
- 2/25/2015: tight N/S gradient with only T at KATL but major just 40 miles N of KATL; 5.2" Rome and 7-10" far N GA
Click to expand...
Yeah it seems like it's all or nothing for N GA when it comes to storms like that. I got screwed in 2015 with that gradient but not as badly as others were. I believe the east side of the county got 1 inch and the west side got 3 and I had 2. Maybe if we get such a storm this winter, I'll jackpot again. However, last year had a great storm itself, and they seem to only occur once every several winters or longer.
 
Winter storms, especially down here are amazing examples of how localized weather can be. A few miles can make the biggest difference. Like back in January 2017, my neighborhood was pounded by sleet while neighborhoods in South Charlotte had rain mixed in, along with North Charlotte suburbs being mostly snow.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Latest Euro seasonal.
:weenie::weenie::weenie::weenie:
View attachment 5566
Click to expand...
The -20 to -40 roughly corresponds to anomalies of -2 to -4 F, a solidly cold winter for most of the SE US and coldest since 2010-1 or even 2009-10 in some cases. For reference, 2009-10 was -4.5 at KATL, the coldest since 1977-8.

So we now have the Euro (-20 to -40 m 500 mb heights roughly corresponds to -2 to -4), the JAMSTEC (roughly averaging -2), and, most importantly, the very highly respected Pioneer (can’t tell what anomalies are but it is clearly cold in the SE though the coldest anomalies further north unlike the centered over the SE Euro and JAMSTEC).
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
The -20 to -40 roughly corresponds to anomalies of -2 to -4 F, a solidly cold winter for most of the SE US and coldest since 2010-1 or even 2009-10 in some cases. For reference, 2009-10 was -4.5 at KATL, the coldest since 1977-8.

So we now have the Euro (-20 to -40 dm 500 mb heights roughly corresponds to -2 to -4), the JAMSTEC (roughly averaging -2), and, most importantly, the very highly respected Pioneer (can’t tell what anomalies are but it is clearly cold in the SE though the coldest anomalies further north unlike the centered over the SE Euro and JAMSTEC).
Click to expand...
Has the new Jamstec come out? I saw the July version but haven't seen the August one posted. May not be ready yet.
 
GaWx said:
Too soon
Click to expand...
Thanks. Is that one released usually around mid-month? I can't keep up with when all these different seasonals come out.
 
Rain Cold said:
Thanks. Is that one released usually around mid-month? I can't keep up with when all these different seasonals come out.
Click to expand...

I think it was released near 7/20. Eurosip is released around then or even maybe a little later.
 
GaWx said:
The -20 to -40 roughly corresponds to anomalies of -2 to -4 F, a solidly cold winter for most of the SE US and coldest since 2010-1 or even 2009-10 in some cases. For reference, 2009-10 was -4.5 at KATL, the coldest since 1977-8.

So we now have the Euro (-20 to -40 m 500 mb heights roughly corresponds to -2 to -4), the JAMSTEC (roughly averaging -2), and, most importantly, the very highly respected Pioneer (can’t tell what anomalies are but it is clearly cold in the SE though the coldest anomalies further north unlike the centered over the SE Euro and JAMSTEC).
Click to expand...

After further analysis this morning, I think my initial guideline of the Euro’s -20 to -40 meter 500 mb anomalies roughly corresponding to -2 to -4 F surface temperature anomalies is too small. I now think it corresponds roughly to at least -2.5 to -5 F and maybe even as much as -3 to -6 F. Regardless, it is rough because on any one day a certain 500 mb height average at any particular location could be associated with a far different daily average surface temperature vs any other day depending on many factors. That’s why I’m only looking for a rough average relationship. To get this, I looked at the difference between normal surface temperatures in various cities for January vs July as well as the normal 500 mb heights for both months for the same cities. This told me that the rough average correlation is greater than the 10 meters to 1.0 F I was initially assuming. The rough relationship appears to be more like 10 meters to 1.3-1.6 F rather than only 1.0 F. It appears that the higher end of this range tends to apply further south (as in a place like ATL) vs the Midwest/NE (say like Chicago or NYC), where it appears to be closer to the lower part of the range.

**Edited several times**
 
Last edited:
When is that Beaufort Gyre thing going to release?
 
Rain Cold said:
Gandalf pretty much sums up how I feel every winter.
Click to expand...
1300m said:
Could turn out to be a very exhausting winter with southern stream waves ejecting eastward frequently...
Click to expand...

I'm already preparing myself to watch at least one decent snowstorm screw over RDU relative to the Triad and Roxboro, although this is climatologically favored anyway, it seems to be even more prevalent in the largest storms during NINO winters like this.
 
Rain Cold said:
Dude! -20 - -40C is going to be brutal! If we can't get snow out of that, then we suck horribly.
Click to expand...
Lots of coastals with Kitty Hawk getting 4-8” , down through CHS, and you get a cloud flizzard, and Brick looking at the models and saying” it’s got to come further west”:p
 
NoSnowATL said:
Late October
Click to expand...
I can’t imagine an early start to winter like last year, but I think we have a legit threat in December! Maybe , hopefully, a Dec 2002 redux!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top