pcbjr
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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
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SimeonNC
Member
I'm mentally prepping for another January 2017 lol
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I could always make it now and post the current one that only goes out to early December.
It has the reliability of a lemon. Who would believe a model that has no rain in ATL for 2 whole months?
To get a better idea of what the August Euro ~-30 to -40 meter 500 mb ht anomaly forecast for DJF might imply for, say, a place like KATL based on the history of cool to cold sub +2.0 ONI peak El Ninos since the 1950s (all anomalies based on 1950-present data):
Nino Winter......500 mb anomaly......surface temp. anomaly
1957-8...................-80...............................-3.9
1963-4...................-63...............................-6.2
1968-9...................-29...............................-4.0
1969-70.................-50...............................-4.6
1976-7...................-67...............................-7.7
1977-8...................-46...............................-6.7
1979-80.................-14...............................-0.5
1986-7...................-11...............................-0.8
2002-3...................-17...............................-1.6
2009-10.................-63...............................-4.9
Average of these...-44...............................-4.1
This is just data for thought as regards this Euro DJF 500 mb height anomaly forecast. I'll let the readers draw their own conclusions as to what this -30 to -40 m 500 mb ht anomaly for Atlanta and -20 to -40 m for the bulk of the SE in general might mean should this forecast happen to verify closely. But suffice it to say that it would likely mean at least as cold as a -3 F anomaly for Atlanta's DJF or the coldest winter there since 2009-10. No winter other than 2009-10 since 1982-3 has been colder than -3. So, even a -3 would be a huge deal. But of course, this is all major speculation. Actually getting El Nino is crucial. Hopefully we don't have another 2012 teaser on our hands. I don't think so but it is a small possibility.
Nino Winter......500 mb anomaly......surface temp. anomaly
1957-8...................-80...............................-3.9
1963-4...................-63...............................-6.2
1968-9...................-29...............................-4.0
1969-70.................-50...............................-4.6
1976-7...................-67...............................-7.7
1977-8...................-46...............................-6.7
1979-80.................-14...............................-0.5
1986-7...................-11...............................-0.8
2002-3...................-17...............................-1.6
2009-10.................-63...............................-4.9
Average of these...-44...............................-4.1
This is just data for thought as regards this Euro DJF 500 mb height anomaly forecast. I'll let the readers draw their own conclusions as to what this -30 to -40 m 500 mb ht anomaly for Atlanta and -20 to -40 m for the bulk of the SE in general might mean should this forecast happen to verify closely. But suffice it to say that it would likely mean at least as cold as a -3 F anomaly for Atlanta's DJF or the coldest winter there since 2009-10. No winter other than 2009-10 since 1982-3 has been colder than -3. So, even a -3 would be a huge deal. But of course, this is all major speculation. Actually getting El Nino is crucial. Hopefully we don't have another 2012 teaser on our hands. I don't think so but it is a small possibility.
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Followed by a “these models are useless!”Lots of coastals with Kitty Hawk getting 4-8” , down through CHS, and you get a cloud flizzard, and Brick looking at the models and saying” it’s got to come further west”
here's my absolutely uninformed prediction for Winter '18/'19:
Cold, somewhat stormy Dec (been a while, so just the fallacy of percentages)
Winter persists into mid Jan, with one or two decent snows for Tennessee/Nc... all except RDU (because I don't like you!)
Warm Feb, Mild March.
Gonna be a little like 10/11, but not as cold or snowy.
Cold, somewhat stormy Dec (been a while, so just the fallacy of percentages)
Winter persists into mid Jan, with one or two decent snows for Tennessee/Nc... all except RDU (because I don't like you!)
Warm Feb, Mild March.
Gonna be a little like 10/11, but not as cold or snowy.
cd2play
Member
It's gonna be 2011-12 redoo. Just kidding
I can see that happening... We'll be begging for a March 1960 reprise to save winter in no time..It's gonna be 2011-12 redoo. Just kidding
Snowflowxxl
Member
Last year was insane getting snow on December 9th. I don’t think I will see snow that early here again in my lifetime!
I'm still pissed that we in Chattanooga mostly whiffed on that storm.... Dalton got 3 inches, CHA got half inch... places just 70 miles to the south, close to a foot.. ahhgh, snow tracking in the south is a maddening sport.
I don't think it has sunk in for most of us on how rare that event was. Largest snowfall for many of these areas since '93 and probably eclipsing that event in a good number of locations including mine.
yeah, and the kicker was there wasn't any super rare Arctic air for that event either... snow very deep into the South usually needs record Arctic air, this wasn't.
EastAtlwx
Meteorologist
That storm was one of my biggest regrets winter storm chasing wise. i decided not to chase it because of my unreliable vehicle at the time. I should of risked it.... ugh. I stayed at my aunts house in Lithonia where we managed a lousy inch. It has been very rough here south and east of I-85 in which we haven't had a significant winter storm besides that surprise icing event for some since 2014. I have really grown to hate the warm nose.
That 500 mb Euro DJF map looks like a -NAO/-AO/+PNA combo to go along with a likely Modoki El Nino. It couldn't get much better than that. I hope we're not getting the big tease with these Euro, Pioneer, and Jamstec winter maps! Of course, there's nothing like having the Pioneer on your side. I mean how often does it predict E US cold?
never even heard of the Pioneer... what is that?
It is a model used and possibly developed by WeatherBell. I can't recall it ever not being cold in the E US for winter. So ti is the perfect model for Joe Bastardi. So, I was being silly in asking how often does it predict E US cold and just having fun with it. The model was cold last winter:
https://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/pioeer_temps.png
Then again in all fairness, it hasn't been around more than a few years.
Not necessarily, several of the big southern snows contained modified pacific air that was just cold enough such as the February 2015 north AL crusher.
by deep south, I mean south texas, the gulf coast, southern Ga/Fl... those areas got snow during that storm.
N Alabama isn't the 'deep south' by anyone's definition, I don't think...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Sometimes we get lucky in NINO years but they're few & far in between, just hope for one decent storm to not screw you over this year if we end up w/ a NINO haha.
