• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

Arcc said:
I really hate basing winters on a three month average. Personally 2013-2014 and 2010-2011 were both colder than 2009-2010. That is my issue with winter predictions such as WxBell. A winter of above average temps can vastly outperform a winter of below average temps.
Click to expand...
Exactly, wall-to-wall cold is't needed for a snowy winter overall. In recent years, prolonged cold for me has been more associated with dry weather than anything else. But maybe the potential for a more active STJ will change things up.
 
Arcc said:
I really hate basing winters on a three month average. Personally 2013-2014 and 2010-2011 were both colder than 2009-2010. That is my issue with winter predictions such as WxBell. A winter of above average temps can vastly outperform a winter of below average temps.
Click to expand...

Indeed, a warm winter can outperform here in the SE as it takes only one storm in many cases. And a wall to wall cold one can be void of much wintry precip. The 2 coldest ATL winters on record had below normal wintry precip. But when looking back at history, a higher % of cold winters had above average wintry precip than near normal. Same can be said for near average temps vs warmer than normal.
 
GaWx said:
Indeed, a warm winter can outperform here in the SE as it takes only one storm in many cases. And a wall to wall cold one can be void of much wintry precip. The 2 coldest ATL winters on record had below normal wintry precip. But when looking back at history, a higher % of cold winters had above average wintry precip than near normal. Same can be said for near average temps vs warmer than normal.
Click to expand...

Further to the above:

Since 1879-80 at Atlanta:
- cold winters were 2/3 wintry & 1/3 not
- near normal winters were 1/2 wintry and 1/2 not
- mild winters were 1/3 wintry and 2/3 not
- total precip. actually not a big factor as ~same # of wintry ones that were wet were dry; not many folks realize this but keep in mind that being wintry often required only one significant storm, which often doesn't need to be that wet to be productive wintrywise, as opposed to a consistently stormy/wet winter

Coldest 15 ATL winters in absolute terms:
1. 1976-7: nonwintry; El Nino
2. 1977-8: nonwintry; El Nino
3. 1904-5: wintry; El Nino
4. 1962-3: wintry; not El Nino
5. 1935-6: wintry; not El Nino
6. 1963-4: wintry; El Nino
7. 1939-40: wintry; El Nino
8. 1901-2: wintry; not El Nino
9. 2009-10: wintry; El Nino
10. 1885-6: not wintry; El Nino
11. 1894-5: wintry; not El Nino
12. 1969-70: not wintry; El Nino
13. 1917-8: wintry; not El Nino
14. 1903-4: wintry; not El Nino
15. 1909-10: not wintry; not El Nino

- Although the 2 coldest were not wintry, 2/3 (10) of the coldest 15 were wintry
- 7 of the 10 coldest were El Nino (mainly weak to moderate)
- 8 El Nino split between wintry and nonwintry
- 6 of 7 non-El Nino wintry interestingly enough
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
Further to the above:

Since 1879-80 at Atlanta:
- cold winters were 2/3 wintry & 1/3 not
- near normal winters were 1/2 wintry and 1/2 not
- mild winters were 1/3 wintry and 2/3 not
- total precip. actually not a big factor as ~same # of wintry ones that were wet were dry; not many folks realize this but keep in mind that being wintry often required only one significant storm, which often doesn't need to be that wet to be productive wintrywise, as opposed to a consistently stormy/wet winter

Coldest 15 ATL winters in absolute terms:
1. 1976-7: nonwintry; El Nino
2. 1977-8: nonwintry; El Nino
3. 1904-5: wintry; El Nino
4. 1962-3: wintry; not El Nino
5. 1935-6: wintry; not El Nino
6. 1963-4: wintry; El Nino
7. 1939-40: wintry; El Nino
8. 1901-2: wintry; not El Nino
9. 2009-10: wintry; El Nino
10. 1885-6: not wintry; El Nino
11. 1894-5: wintry; not El Nino
12. 1969-70: not wintry; El Nino
13. 1917-8: wintry; not El Nino
14. 1903-4: wintry; not El Nino
15. 1909-10: not wintry; not El Nino

- Although the 2 coldest were not wintry, 2/3 (10) of the coldest 15 were wintry
- 7 of the 10 coldest were El Nino
- 8 El Nino split between wintry and nonwintry
- 6 of 7 non-El Nino wintry interestingly enough
Click to expand...
Bring on the cold; the odds are better, and regardless it's more fun, even and especially in the far southern corner of real estate inhabited by our merry little cabal, that never sees a dozen flakes stick anyways (well ... almost never, to be bluntly honest) ... :rolleyes:
 
Last edited:
One of the few major takeaways during NIÑO winters like the one we’re probably about to go into is that the overall progression of the winter will tend to become colder/snowier vs long term normals especially in February, much unlike last year. Having a weak, CP El Niño increases the opportunity that December doesn’t suck so that certainly helps but it could still be warm. As 1300m and myself have noted, the character of the winter storms at least in NC seems to be kinder to more climatologically favored areas of the NW piedmont and mountains like Asheville, the Triad, etc vs areas like RDU and Charlotte. Don’t get me wrong though, the Triangle and Charlotte can and often do very well in winters like this. Residents in the region however just need to be well aware that the difference between the haves and have nots in NC usually becomes even larger in El Niño winters because we get more strong storms and while it’s colder overall the depth and intensity of the cold highs is weaker. Remember that in Niños that the source region for the cold air comes from southern Canada and the northern US more frequently than Siberia and Alaska as is often true in La Niñas (when it is cold in those winters). This is really about as detailed as I think I can get for this upcoming winter in NC given the information at hand. Should be a fun one to watch unfold!
 
Webberweather53 said:
One of the few major takeaways during NIÑO winters like the one we’re probably about to go into is that the overall progression of the winter will tend to become colder/snowier vs long term normals especially in February, much unlike last year. Having a weak, CP El Niño increases the opportunity that December doesn’t suck so that certainly helps but it could still be warm. As 1300m and myself have noted, the character of the winter storms at least in NC seems to be kinder to more climatologically favored areas of the NW piedmont and mountains like Asheville, the Triad, etc vs areas like RDU and Charlotte. Don’t get me wrong though, the Triangle and Charlotte can and often do very well in winters like this. Residents in the region however just need to be well aware that the difference between the haves and have nots in NC usually becomes even larger in El Niño winters because we get more strong storms and while it’s colder overall the depth and intensity of the cold highs is weaker. Remember that in Niños that the source region for the cold air comes from southern Canada and the northern US more frequently than Siberia and Alaska as is often true in La Niñas (when it is cold in those winters). This is really about as detailed as I think I can get for this upcoming winter in NC given the information at hand. Should be a fun one to watch unfold!
Click to expand...
Kudos on so many levels, Webb ... ;):cool::D:p:rolleyes:
 
On an unrelated note, I found this intriguing little guy in January 1925 that came within 36 hours after a near total solar eclipse haha. Wilmington, Charlotte, and Raleigh snowfall data by far is the best in NC and you can almost take them verbatim, but occasionally I find questionable data, and I think this is one of those rare occasions where Wilmington actually screwed up and didn't report snow/sleet, and the Southeastern Regional Climate Center hasn't caught it (yet). I'm sorry but even when Southport on the southern part of Brunswick county is reporting sleet and Conway, SC next door sees 1" of snow/sleet, I just don't buy a goose egg in this storm in Wilmington proper. Of course, it was another storm in a NINA winter where Raleigh hit the jackpot relatively speaking, wow what a shocker lol. If this storm had been mostly or all snow several inches would have fallen, instead sleet, rain, and even freezing rain severely hampered totals.

January 27-29 1925 NC Snowmap.png

The snowfall distribution and amounts south of Raleigh looks a lot like this little guy from February 2007.
February 1 2007 NC Snowmap.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
One of the few major takeaways during NIÑO winters like the one we’re probably about to go into is that the overall progression of the winter will tend to become colder/snowier vs long term normals especially in February, much unlike last year. Having a weak, CP El Niño increases the opportunity that December doesn’t suck so that certainly helps but it could still be warm. As 1300m and myself have noted, the character of the winter storms at least in NC seems to be kinder to more climatologically favored areas of the NW piedmont and mountains like Asheville, the Triad, etc vs areas like RDU and Charlotte. Don’t get me wrong though, the Triangle and Charlotte can and often do very well in winters like this. Residents in the region however just need to be well aware that the difference between the haves and have nots in NC usually becomes even larger in El Niño winters because we get more strong storms and while it’s colder overall the depth and intensity of the cold highs is weaker. Remember that in Niños that the source region for the cold air comes from southern Canada and the northern US more frequently than Siberia and Alaska as is often true in La Niñas (when it is cold in those winters). This is really about as detailed as I think I can get for this upcoming winter in NC given the information at hand. Should be a fun one to watch unfold!
Click to expand...

Honestly, I would be totally fine to get the short end of the stick, if the storm overall is a HECS. Like the January 2016 one, even though the Nino then was much stronger.
 
Webberweather53 said:
One of the few major takeaways during NIÑO winters like the one we’re probably about to go into is that the overall progression of the winter will tend to become colder/snowier vs long term normals especially in February, much unlike last year. Having a weak, CP El Niño increases the opportunity that December doesn’t suck so that certainly helps but it could still be warm. As 1300m and myself have noted, the character of the winter storms at least in NC seems to be kinder to more climatologically favored areas of the NW piedmont and mountains like Asheville, the Triad, etc vs areas like RDU and Charlotte. Don’t get me wrong though, the Triangle and Charlotte can and often do very well in winters like this. Residents in the region however just need to be well aware that the difference between the haves and have nots in NC usually becomes even larger in El Niño winters because we get more strong storms and while it’s colder overall the depth and intensity of the cold highs is weaker. Remember that in Niños that the source region for the cold air comes from southern Canada and the northern US more frequently than Siberia and Alaska as is often true in La Niñas (when it is cold in those winters). This is really about as detailed as I think I can get for this upcoming winter in NC given the information at hand. Should be a fun one to watch unfold!
Click to expand...

Obviously with a CP/modoki NINO, the source region is usually north-central Canada which doesn't hurt but most of North America is flooded with warm Pacific air in NINOs. Out of curiosity, I analyzed the difference in seasonal snowfall between RDU and GSO since 1895-96, filling in a lot of missing data in Greensboro before the 1940s and compared the RDU-GSO seasonal snowfall difference in El Ninos and La Ninas and the findings were intriguing. There were 42 El Nino samples & 44 La Ninas, during El Ninos, Raleigh's snowfall average in wasn't different from the long-term mean while Greensboro's increased by nearly 2 inches. The average difference between Raleigh and Greensboro in the 42 El Nino winters analyzed since 1895-96 was nearly 3" (this more than twice the long-term mean), whereas Greensboro only averaged a dusting of additional snowfall in La Ninas. Raleigh observed more snowfall than Greensboro in only one-third of El Nino winters, slightly lower than the long-term mean of ~40-45%. A 2 sided t test between the La Nina and El Nino mean seasonal snowfall differences between Greensboro & Raleigh was significant at the 99% level. What this last figure means is that the differences in snowfall and even winter storm behavior at RDU and GSO is significantly different during El Ninos compared to La Ninas.
 
1300m said:
Great analysis. I'd be curious to see this analysis done but adding in some other teleconnections (at least the NAO). I have a feeling there is an abundance of mixed events at RDU, but with a negative NAO tipping the scales towards more frequent significant snowfall events during Ninos. Would also be interesting to see if the number of IP events at RDU aren't significantly higher during Ninos, which I suspect they are, but unfortunately that would require going through some additional steps to parse out. One other thing I'd actually also be interested in is if these same results hold for an area further east, such as maybe Roanoake Rapids. It seems like they tend to cash in on the big coastals in Ninos much more frequently than RDU (maximizing snowfall whereas RDU can be on the western edge), so I'm curious if that is also playing a role or if it is predominantly just the mixing being the primary driver, which I suspect is most likely the case.
Click to expand...

Going off memory of analyses I’ve done in the past, -NAO is definitely correlated towards more snow and bigger snows in El Niño’s, at least for RDU. I agree with the mixing theory over Central Carolina during Ninos, makes sense given the climo storm track...probably wouldn’t even have to do the analysis. I think this winter will be quite frustrating and I’m just glad I moved from Garner back to NW Wake County...makes the world of difference.
 
If we get plenty of blocking, there will be more than one decent snow here. That’s going to be the key this winter. And right now, I’m not all that unhappy with what I’m seeing in that area. But we have a long way to go.
 
1300m said:
Agreed. As of now, my best educated forecast is that with blocking we likely have the potential for 200% average snowfall at RDU - we could do that in one storm! Without it, it's possible we have BN temps and BN snowfall with many mixes, slop storms and just an exhausting winter of tracking Piedmont crushers and January 2017 storms where the warm nose kills us. Or, maybe we get lucky and still get several big front end thumps that changeover, but all snow events in +NAO/+ENSO events become much more difficult.

NAO_Interactions.png
Click to expand...
I for one will only predict that the mountains will have more snow that the Western Piedmont, the Western Piedmont will have more snow than Central NC, that Central NC will have slightly more snow that Eastern NC and that SC/Ga will have less than either of the first 2. Talk about sticking your neck way out there..... (in other words, I'll go with Climatology) :D
 
1300m said:
I would not be surprised at all if some folks along the I-95 corridor/northeast NC get absolutely obliterated this winter and have more snow than those west of them outside the mountains. I'm showing my hand a little bit on which way I'm leaning in the will we have blocking or not wildcard. Call it intuition :)
Click to expand...
While you're at it, conjure up a tad bit for Larry and his Curmudgeon neighbor to the far south ... :p
 
1300m said:
I would not be surprised at all if some folks along the I-95 corridor/northeast NC get absolutely obliterated this winter and have more snow than those west of them outside the mountains. I'm showing my hand a little bit on which way I'm leaning in the will we have blocking or not wildcard. Call it intuition :)
Click to expand...
Don't do this to me, it's not good being in the jackpot zone 4-5 months out

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top