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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

SoutheastRidge said:
So he is saying there will be a weak El-Nino and the last time a weak El-Nino produced a lot of snowfall in Charlotte was in the 1979-80 winter ? Looks to me like Charlotte better be rooting for a Mod El-Nino.
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Looks like the 70s had a lot of great winters in CLT. We’re due!
 
Can’t recall a winter where almost every winter forecast being so bullish. Besides NOAA’s.

Here’s another one.

 
SoutheastRidge said:
So he is saying there will be a weak El-Nino and the last time a weak El-Nino produced a lot of snowfall in Charlotte was in the 1979-80 winter ? Looks to me like Charlotte better be rooting for a Mod El-Nino.
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Speaking for Raleigh it’s Weak over Moderate. All intensities of La Ninas are king over El Niño’s for RDU snow though.


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Since everyone is putting out a winter forecast today I'll throw my thoughts out there.

December +2-4
January -1/+1
February -2-4

Winter precip as a whole above normal. The I20 corridor might be the winners of above normal on a percentage basis. I think we get a low amplitude west to east wave that favors a jackpot in this area. Given the tendency for a split flow and overrunning ice is a larger concern this winter.

In all honesty I still have quite a few questions and concerns. I believe the biggest bust potential is for December and January to be colder than what I have. Really interested to see how the north pac/pv/nao act this year.

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SD said:
Since everyone is putting out a winter forecast today I'll throw my thoughts out there.

December +2-4
January -1/+1
February -2-4

Winter precip as a whole above normal. The I20 corridor might be the winners of above normal on a percentage basis. I think we get a low amplitude west to east wave that favors a jackpot in this area. Given the tendency for a split flow and overrunning ice is a larger concern this winter.

In all honesty I still have quite a few questions and concerns. I believe the biggest bust potential is for December and January to be colder than what I have. Really interested to see how the north pac/pv/nao act this year.

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Sounds about reasonable. If we do indeed get the colder February, precipitation will be down since bitter and dry usually go hand in hand. If I were a bit more pessimistic, I would say December will be warm into early January before a big dip in temps, but we have had that too much recently so I think it's about time for a cold Christmas and New Years.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I am well aware that 2-3" is a good snow for GA. My point was that he will probably never see 14" in a winter again in his lifetime unless he moves. Thats a once in a lifetime winter for Cobb County.
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Before I moved to Columbia, SC I had a yearly total of 12" in Dallas, GA, one county west of Cobb in 2008 or 2009, can't remember. Then of course you had the 93 superstorm, which is a once in a generation storm that dropped anywhere from 8-15" in the area. So I would say more like once in a decade type season vs once in a lifetime. Access to cold air and elevation matters, and unlike what areas east of the mountains deal with, the northwest portion of Georgia is unimpeded from the cold coming from the northeast or northwest.

But yes, it was a fabulous year.
 
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I’m gonna throw my 2 cents in:
RAH-6” of snow- many slop events, esp over Rain_Colds house
Roxboro-18”
CLT- 11”
GSP-7”, lots of rain cold
ATL-3”- some slop events
BHM-4”
JAX- trace
CAE- 2”
GSP temps- Dec(-2) Jan (0) Feb(-2.5) March (-4) dep from norm
 
Kylo said:
Can’t recall a winter where almost every winter forecast being so bullish. Besides NOAA’s.

Here’s another one.

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I'm assuming the forecast doesn't call for above normal snowfall south of I-20 because down there anything more than a dusting is above normal? ;)
 
I'll take a guess:

Nashville-15"
Chattanooga-8"
Birmingham-3"
Atlanta-3"
NW burbs-5"
Asheville-18"
Banner Elk-52"
GSP-3"
CAE-0"
CLT-5"
RAH-7"
GSO-11"
 
Early Predictions:

GSP(North of I85): 5-8” snow .5-.7” Ice

GSP(South of I85): 2-5” snow .5-1” Ice

Charlotte: 6-10” Snow .2-.5” Ice

Raleigh: 8-12” Snow .1-.2 Ice

Roxboro: 20”+ Snow

Columbia: 1-3” Snow (Some Ice)

Atlanta: 1-4” Snow .75-1” Ice

Sugar Mountain: 90” Snow

Beach Mountain: 82” Snow
 
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Loving all the predictions everyone is throwing out there . Keep them coming

Today is November 1st and I said goodbye to my wife this am and told her I would see her again in March . It’s that time of year , she gets the Hallmark channel and I get cold temps , hopefully a winter storm or two and inflated clown maps !


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Seems like the consensus is that the coldest and snowiest month this winter will be February. I'm ok with that as long as we get a taste of winter in Dec and Jan too.
 
If we don't get snow by about midway through February, the sun angle will mess with any decent event. The best snow events in south Louisiana have always been December and January. I hope we get a chillier pattern for December than many are seeing at this point.
 
Will Rossman said:
If we don't get snow by about midway through February, the sun angle will mess with any decent event. The best snow events in south Louisiana have always been December and January. I hope we get a chillier pattern for December than many are seeing at this point.
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yeah really pulling for an early threat

February snow is fun and all but then its practically spring :p
 
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I feel like a broken record but this guy from PA really likes the Carolinas and southeast in general for a great winter also. I'm having a hard time finding any bad forecasts out there besides Dr. Cohen's. You can watch the video here...
 
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