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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

Upstate SC hasn’t had any snow. Maybe some ice in the Spartanburg area from that system last week but idk about .1-1”. Am I missing something?
The snowfall analysis from that map is prototype data. So, it may not be accurate for some area's. I do believe it includes ice/sleet accumulations as well. But don't hold my word on that, I could be wrong.
 
Here is the EURO latest winter forecast, it is almost identical to Weatherbell's Pioneer model

ecmwf_seasonal_201812_z500a_DJF_1.png
 
Is there any hope for a pattern flip in January? For everyone west of the Carolinas... I'm thinking this might go down as "the winter that wasn't"
 
This was always going to be a backloaded winter. This December storm pattern we have been in the last few years is interesting but don’t change anything.
 
Yes don’t give up, please remember most of the SE doesn’t even see snow until Jan.
Honestly the highest snowfall totals in georgia at least my are seen to be February and March. February 1973 March 1993 March 2009 February 2010. January seems to have the more powdery snow
 
JB is on the VERY COLD side going forward!! (No surprise) :oops:

Major cold evolving for January.
Don't want to rush the core of cold in.
The threat of most severe cold will be for January 15-February 15 when normals are lowest.
During that time the average of Chicago, NYC, Dallas and Atlanta could reach -10°F or greater for at least a week.
Benchmark for lowest temperatures is 0°F in NYC, -10°F in Chicago, 15°F at Dallas and 10°F in Atlanta.
Feedback from threats of repetitive snow events can enhance the cold.

First of all drying is spreading back into the area of the Indian Ocean in Days 4-11 that tipped us off to the current warmth when it was wet.
 
Here is the EURO latest winter forecast, it is almost identical to Weatherbell's Pioneer model

ecmwf_seasonal_201812_z500a_DJF_1.png

Dang, how did I miss this? This is far colder than the prior run and is actually the coldest yet for the SE overall of what I’ve seen though it is about the same as the prior coldest for far southern posters like Phil though even he is currently solidly cold on this. This is the first run showing the -40 to -60 meter color anywhere in the SE, which means posters in N GA, N AL, TN, upstate SC, NC, VA, KY, and IN are much colder than in any other Euro outlook:

Last month’s most disappointing run: https://southernwx.com/community/threads/winter-2018-19-discussion.410/page-27#post-116649

Sep run:
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/winter-2018-19-discussion.410/page-9#post-105502

Aug run:
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/winter-2018-19-discussion.410/page-2#post-103582

I can’t find the Oct run.

Edit: Considering the slightly warmer than average to near normal Dec we will end up with, IF this run were to verify for DJF overall, OMG!
 
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JB is on the VERY COLD side going forward!! (No surprise) :oops:

Major cold evolving for January.
Don't want to rush the core of cold in.
The threat of most severe cold will be for January 15-February 15 when normals are lowest.
During that time the average of Chicago, NYC, Dallas and Atlanta could reach -10°F or greater for at least a week.
Benchmark for lowest temperatures is 0°F in NYC, -10°F in Chicago, 15°F at Dallas and 10°F in Atlanta.
Feedback from threats of repetitive snow events can enhance the cold.

First of all drying is spreading back into the area of the Indian Ocean in Days 4-11 that tipped us off to the current warmth when it was wet.
Oh JB, for once I wish you could be right! I’ll buy you a 55 gallon drum of bubble bath if this comes true!
 
Temps so far this young Season:
Greensboro: November ( -4.2) December: Up till 19th ( -1.6)
Raleigh: November ( -3.3) December: Up till 19th ( -1.1)
 
GFS finally showing some cold air punching a little deeper into south central CONUS at the end of midday run. Maybe a signal for a pattern flip?
 
On a positive note BTR has not hit the 70s since 12/2. So although no extreme cold so far this winter, at least no extreme heat. And the average temps are BN.
 
Some DJF 2018-9 anomalies vs normal:

0 Dallas: the big winner!
+2 Memphis, RAH, GSP
+3 Fayetteville, Columbia, Wilmington, Waycross
+4 Huntsville, Birm., Florence, CHS, SAV, ATL, Macon, Chat., Asheville, Jacksonville. Jackson
+5 Nashville, Montgomery, GNV, Augusta
 
Some DJF 2018-9 anomalies vs normal:

0 Dallas: the big winner!
+2 Memphis, RAH, GSP
+3 Fayetteville, Columbia, Wilmington, Waycross
+4 Huntsville, Birm., Florence, CHS, SAV, ATL, Macon, Chat., Asheville, Jacksonville. Jackson
+5 Nashville, Montgomery, GNV, Augusta
Not as bad as I thought actually
 
DJF 2018-9 anomalies in graphic form: warning this may be too graphic for the faint of heart! But in all seriousness, you can see that Brent was the big winner being far from the SER, AR to Memphis and vicinity weren’t that warm, and that much of NC into NW SC didn’t do that bad thanks to numerous wedges:
A7D9DA02-F021-4CAC-A8E9-2A638A7FB550.jpeg
 
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