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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

Just though y'all guys would have a good laugh over the map I posted, but all seriousness that may be little extreme lol, but with a possible El Nino modiki it could get pretty exciting this Fall/Winter.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol yep. Miami will have record snowfall as will the entire state of Florida :p
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Miami has had snow in the past. I remember the winter of 1977, they had flurries in downtown Miami with a temp of 35 degrees. So, record snow for them is anything above a dusting.
 
1300m said:
Me too. This is our ENSO wheelhouse. If we can just get the southern stream to activate, it will hopefully be suppressed and that is half the battle in getting an active winter with many opportunities to cash in instead of just a handful. I'm hoping to at least get the opportunity to track one phasing big dog this winter.
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I just hope we can get something big for AL, TN, GA, and SC too! A good overrunning event would be nice at least once. Not sure if only NC would cash in on this pattern or others as well.
 
1300m said:
The hope would be a few weak southern sliders that many would do well with, and then potentially an opportunity or two for a phased bomb if we can get a western ridge and a little NAO help ;). If we're dreamin', might as well dream big!
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The good news is that both weak and moderate Niños feature a D/J/F seasonal wide -NAO on average, with the moderate Nino having the more classic -NAO look especially for Jan and Feb. But given it’s likely of the modoki type, it too has a nice -NAO signal for DJF (actually stronger/better than a weak canonical Nino)


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The Old Farmer's Almanac winter forecast looks very 2011-12ish, that doesn't make since with El Nino. I put -0 stock into that forecast.
 
cd2play said:
The Old Farmer's Almanac winter forecast looks very 2011-12ish, that doesn't make since with El Nino. I put -0 stock into that forecast.
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Only way is if we have an El Nono, a total flop. If I remember, wasn't that a year we had an El-Nino fail? That also was the worst winter I remember because I didn't see a single flake and there wasn't even an ice event. Nothing frozen fell.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Only way is if we have an El Nono, a total flop. If I remember, wasn't that a year we had an El-Nino fail? That also was the worst winter I remember because I didn't see a single flake and there wasn't even an ice event. Nothing frozen fell.
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I remember 1991-92 being mild most of the winter. Was it mostly a zonal flow that winter?
 
Nice post @Kylo, I really like the prospect of a typical Nino winter especially if it stays weak. Give me an active southern stream and cold air in place, that's about all we can ask for. If we can get some blocking like a solid +PNA and -AO/NAO combo that also would be great.
 
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