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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

Something else to watch... over the years I’ve noticed that the bulk of the well below normal cold has been focused in Siberia. If the seasonal models are picking things up correctly then it seems that cold will be centered on our side of the globe and dumped into the US. IF this indeed verifies and we have an active southern jet then it could make a lot of folks very happy.
 
GaWx said:
What Phil and cd2 said. Cold relative to normal can't be everywhere. There's only so much cold air. Think of the warmth in Canada as blocking. Areas of blocking are warm relative to normal. In this case, cold air is sort of blocked from lingering too long in Canada and instead it comes south. When Canadian highs plunge down into the US, they're often replaced up there with warmer air. Still, much colder than normal in the US is typically as warm or warmer than much of Canada when Canada is much warmer than normal because it modifies after leaving its Canadian cold source. I'd say that for most cold SE winters, a good part of Canada is "warm".
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You are good, Larry ... ;)
 
80B51C17-A81A-4AD8-9791-B2C9FC4D9D7D.png
Greenville is a great place to live but it sure can be aggravating. For those who say “rates will overcome.” This is proof that rates never overcome. Warm Nose headquarters
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
Could the volcanic eruptions that happened in Hawaii affect our winter this year?
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Not at all. They're weak compared to what other volcanoes have produced and are located in a region that wouldn't have any drastic effect on anything. A larger eruption would have to occur or something like an Iceland eruption to have an effect.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Not at all. They're weak compared to what other volcanoes have produced and are located in a region that wouldn't have any drastic effect on anything. A larger eruption would have to occur or something like an Iceland eruption to have an effect.
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Gotcha just wondering cause I watched a video about valcanoes effects on the climate.
 
Dumb question, will above average Atlantic SSTs affect the strength of winter storms or are they only a huge factor with tropical systems?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
View attachment 6998
Greenville is a great place to live but it sure can be aggravating. For those who say “rates will overcome.” This is proof that rates never overcome. Warm Nose headquarters
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Can’t wait till our Nov 1 snow, and nothing else the rest of winter!!!
Maybe KS, NB and some of those plains locations that got there earliest snow on record a day or two ago, will be there only shot and winter and they torch the rest of the winter, while we get our 09/10, and ‘77 redux in the East!?:weenie:
 
Tarheel1 said:
Can’t wait till our Nov 1 snow, and nothing else the rest of winter!!!
Maybe KS, NB and some of those plains locations that got there earliest snow on record a day or two ago, will be there only shot and winter and they torch the rest of the winter, while we get our 09/10, and ‘77 redux in the East!?:weenie:
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hot dam
 
0CA3845F-7CB2-4540-94CB-1F355F474532.jpeg
Tarheel1 said:
Can’t wait till our Nov 1 snow, and nothing else the rest of winter!!!
Maybe KS, NB and some of those plains locations that got there earliest snow on record a day or two ago, will be there only shot and winter and they torch the rest of the winter, while we get our 09/10, and ‘77 redux in the East!?:weenie:
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I’ll take a February 12, 2010 redux and call it a decade..if I remember correctly, 850’s were way below freezing for most of the storm capped off with .1-.2 of ice as she pulled away. That snow was fluffy and the ratios were probably the best I’ve ever seen in these parts
 
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That was a pretty good boardwide snowstorm.
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
View attachment 7009

I’ll take a February 12, 2010 redux and call it a decade..if I remember correctly, 850’s were way below freezing for most of the storm capped off with .1-.2 of ice as she pulled away. That snow was fluffy and the ratios were probably the best I’ve ever seen in these parts
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
View attachment 7009

I’ll take a February 12, 2010 redux and call it a decade..if I remember correctly, 850’s were way below freezing for most of the storm capped off with .1-.2 of ice as she pulled away. That snow was fluffy and the ratios were probably the best I’ve ever seen in these parts
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I loved that snowstorm. It was very close for MBY though. We had been forecasted to receive 4-7 inches of snow. It was just cold rain for most of the night however, ruining any chances of getting a good snowpack. The cold air finally mixed in just before dawn and only an hour or so before it ended. The snow was a very wet kind. But that was the first time I'd ever build a real, rolled up, snowman (and a muddy one at that!). Before I would just grab handfuls of snow and try to stick them together to make some kind of snowball. It was still a great winter overall, and I did enjoy the snow.
 
SimeonNC said:
Dumb question, will above average Atlantic SSTs affect the strength of winter storms or are they only a huge factor with tropical systems?
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It can enhance coastal lows moving up along the Gulf Stream if the 5H setup allows for it. I think once we start seeing consistent cold shots those anomalies will lessen or even go back closer to normal.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
View attachment 7009

I’ll take a February 12, 2010 redux and call it a decade..if I remember correctly, 850’s were way below freezing for most of the storm capped off with .1-.2 of ice as she pulled away. That snow was fluffy and the ratios were probably the best I’ve ever seen in these parts
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Me too. I haven't seen snow that heavy and for that long since then.
 
Just for fun... the 00z FV3 showed this out at around 300 hours.
fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_51.png
 
snowlover91 said:
Just for fun... the 00z FV3 showed this out at around 300 hours.
fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_51.png
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If we get an October Winter storm, that's just the KOD for the winter...just sayin.

No worries though that can't happen as shown. There's a high over the great lakes and that's just crazy. Everybody knows that there's usually a low there. Phew, thank goodness. :)
 
If there is October snow I hope it only happens in the mountains. Nothing good has come out of getting snow in October anywhere else lol.
 
It looks like all the key ingredients are coming together for a lot of winter storm chances this winter. Of course, we have seen that before. You can have the best players on the field, but it doesn't guarantee a win.
 
GaStorm said:
If there is October snow I hope it only happens in the mountains. Nothing good has come out of getting snow in October anywhere else lol.
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One of the last and only "area-wide" snow events in late October east of the mountains in NC occurred in 1910 & 1903. It can certainly still happen today as evidenced by what those in the midlands of SC saw on Nov 1, 2014 but it's exceptionally hard to do so.

October 28-29 1910 NC Snowmap.png
October 24-25 1903 NC Snowmap.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
One of the last and only "area-wide" snow events in late October east of the mountains in NC occurred in 1910 & 1903. It can certainly still happen today as evidenced by what those in the midlands of SC saw on Nov 1, 2014 but it's exceptionally hard to do so.

View attachment 7016
View attachment 7017
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I wonder how the winters were after that? The last time it happened outside of the mountains there was no snow in winter from what I remember.
 
I just finished updating my Ensemble Oceanic Nino Index (ENS ONI) to the most recent tri-monthly period. I have the raw monthly, tri-monthly data, ranks, standardized data available in excel format so everyone can download & scrutinize the data on their own accord.

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html


We're following the 1880-81 weak El Nino event virtually to a T this year.

Screen Shot 2018-10-16 at 4.50.53 PM.png

Screen Shot 2018-10-16 at 4.50.09 PM.png

The 1880-81 winter (vs the 1871-1900 period) was fantastic in general over the eastern US.
p0Mf_hA_5k.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
I just finished updating my Ensemble Oceanic Nino Index (ENS ONI) to the most recent tri-monthly period. I have the raw monthly, tri-monthly data, ranks, standardized data available in excel format so everyone can download & scrutinize the data on their own accord.

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html


We're following the 1880-81 weak El Nino event virtually to a T this year.

View attachment 7021

View attachment 7022

The 1880-81 winter (vs the 1871-1900 period) was fantastic in general over the eastern US.
View attachment 7020
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What was snowfall like that year? Now that I looked it up it was said to be the worst or best winter in US history depending on if u like or don’t like winter.
 
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Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
What was snowfall like that year? Now that I looked it up it was said to be the worst or best winter in US history depending on if u like or don’t like winter.
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It was a great winter at Atlanta because the main event was a 6" snow from only 0.28" melted on 12/29. So, 850s might very well have been near or colder than -5C. The next day had a frigid low of 1! Then there was a smaller wintry event on 1/1.
Dec/Jan were 3 colder than normal while Feb was near normal. Mar was 5 colder than normal. The warmest day in DJF was only 70.
In a certain respect, it was a miserable winter with several very cold rains. But that's pretty normal in a cold winter. Total precip. was way above normal or somewhat reminiscent of 1935-6.
 
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Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
What was snowfall like that year? Now that I looked it up it was said to be the worst or best winter in US history depending on if u like or don’t like winter.
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The different large-scale climate & small sample size obviously changes how one interprets the amount of snowfall that winter but it was above or well above average from the stations that I've come across in the Carolinas.
 
Something to put in your back pocket going forward wrt mountain torque events and how the jet stream/waveguide subsequently responds to them. Positive mountain torques (+MTs) act in the same sense as the mechanical disturbance induced by the large-scale mountain ranges w/ a lee side trough of low pressure on their eastern or leeward flank and a ridge upstream on their western or windward side inducing a eastward directed pressure gradient force that leads to a force directed towards the earth opposite to its sense of rotation (which is towards the west). Since the total angular momentum budget of both the earth and atmosphere are conserved and approximately zero, the cross-barrier, westward pressure gradient force (from high to low pressures) created in part by synoptic-scale Rossby Waves traversing major mountain ranges, like the Himalayas denoted here, the slowing of earth’s rotation from a +MT event allows the atmosphere to speed up. This then leads to a positive atmospheric angular momentum anomaly that’s indicative of stronger, more extensive jet streams and in this case, a big trough in the Gulf of Alaska which will help instigate the eventual monster wave break/extratropical cyclone near the E US at the end of October.



It honestly took forever for me to finally wrap my brain around what a Mountain Torque was and what it actually meant for the planetary-scale pattern, I'm hoping it finally makes sense to some after reading this and my tweet.
 
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Seems like we are close to setting analogs aside and it’s time to start looking at real atmospheric developments.

Our CP Niño is beginning to establish itself.
NOTE: check out the + anomalies south of Alaska. +PNA??
0797662E-D260-4BC2-8E25-E8FB9EC97B7E.png

CP Niño is traditionally the optimal ENSO pattern for the east.

This is for January-March.

CP niño is the best for cold in the east and a suppressed storM track. See fig (e-f)
3E53DACD-5C13-4521-B127-5B4617FDD0B9.jpeg

Low solar will increase our blocking chances. I was doing some digging and found that there is a case that claims that low solar years are 4x more likely to have decent north hemisphere blocking compared to non-low solar.


Our NAO is forecast to go negative for the first time in months.
55128537-885E-46B1-AB4E-C0A08EBCDBDE.png


Honestly this is about as good a look as you can get going into late October. Analogs and models are great, but the fact that our atmospheric patterns are currently evolving to support those cold and snowy models and analogs has MUCH more weight than analogs.


Buckle up. I see a fun winter.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Seems like we are close to setting analogs aside and it’s time to start looking at real atmospheric developments.

Our CP Niño is beginning to establish itself.
NOTE: check out the + anomalies south of Alaska. +PNA??
View attachment 7023

CP Niño is traditionally the optimal ENSO pattern for the east.

This is for January-March.

CP niño is the best for cold in the east and a suppressed storM track. See fig (e-f)
View attachment 7024

Low solar will increase our blocking chances. I was doing some digging and found that there is a case that claims that low solar years are 4x more likely to have decent north hemisphere blocking compared to non-low solar.


Our NAO is forecast to go negative for the first time in months.
View attachment 7025


Honestly this is about as good a look as you can get going into late October. Analogs and models are great, but the fact that our atmospheric patterns are currently evolving to support those cold and snowy models and analogs has MUCH more weight than analogs.


Buckle up. I see a fun winter.
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Great post buddy
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Seems like we are close to setting analogs aside and it’s time to start looking at real atmospheric developments.

Our CP Niño is beginning to establish itself.
NOTE: check out the + anomalies south of Alaska. +PNA??
View attachment 7023

CP Niño is traditionally the optimal ENSO pattern for the east.

This is for January-March.

CP niño is the best for cold in the east and a suppressed storM track. See fig (e-f)
View attachment 7024

Low solar will increase our blocking chances. I was doing some digging and found that there is a case that claims that low solar years are 4x more likely to have decent north hemisphere blocking compared to non-low solar.


Our NAO is forecast to go negative for the first time in months.
View attachment 7025


Honestly this is about as good a look as you can get going into late October. Analogs and models are great, but the fact that our atmospheric patterns are currently evolving to support those cold and snowy models and analogs has MUCH more weight than analogs.


Buckle up. I see a fun winter.
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That’s beautiful! I feel like we’re due for a good winter.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Seems like we are close to setting analogs aside and it’s time to start looking at real atmospheric developments.

Our CP Niño is beginning to establish itself.
NOTE: check out the + anomalies south of Alaska. +PNA??
View attachment 7023

CP Niño is traditionally the optimal ENSO pattern for the east.

This is for January-March.

CP niño is the best for cold in the east and a suppressed storM track. See fig (e-f)
View attachment 7024

Low solar will increase our blocking chances. I was doing some digging and found that there is a case that claims that low solar years are 4x more likely to have decent north hemisphere blocking compared to non-low solar.


Our NAO is forecast to go negative for the first time in months.
View attachment 7025


Honestly this is about as good a look as you can get going into late October. Analogs and models are great, but the fact that our atmospheric patterns are currently evolving to support those cold and snowy models and analogs has MUCH more weight than analogs.


Buckle up. I see a fun winter.
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Thanks!
Great info.
Analogues are still fun to look at though ... for example and just for kicks ...

sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif

:cool:
 
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