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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

Kylo said:
UK Seasonal. I don't recall a UK seasonal run being this BN for winter months. Will go check 13/14 and 14/15.

2cat_20181001_temp2m_months35_global_deter_public.png

2cat_20181001_temp2m_months46_global_deter_public.png
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So, that DJF forecast is essentially 1-2 F colder than normal, which is other than that area south of S America the coldest area on the entire globe! Definitely encouraging but I’d like to know their track record. Does anyone have a link to past years’ DJF forecasts?
 
Can't show it yet but both the 51 member ensemble mean EURO and CPC latest run show Oct/Nov/Dec as being well above normal for the SE
 
MichaelJ said:
Can't show it yet but both the 51 member ensemble mean EURO and CPC latest run show Oct/Nov/Dec as being well above normal for the SE
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I have the latest Euro monthlies and Nov is AN for SE. Dec-Feb are solidly BN.

What is CPC? CFSv2?
 
Kylo said:
I have the latest Euro monthlies and Nov is AN for SE. Dec-Feb are solidly BN.

What is CPC? CFSv2?
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They both are NOAA products with the CFS-V2 being the monthly prediction (which runs every day) and the CPC seasonal model which is a seasonal prediction model which runs once a month around mid month. It uses a percentage bases for the upcoming season and you often see it depicted as an above, below, or equal chance of colder or warmer than normal. I show it here:

Screen_Shot_2018_10_10_at_8_51_49_PM.png
 
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Cohen not enthused about the snow cover extent. Seems like past few winters we have had expansive snow cover where he wants and haven't seen the blocking. Hopefully we can get some blocking this winter even with low SAI/SCE.

 
Kylo said:
Cohen not enthused about the snow cover extent. Seems like past few winters we have had expansive snow cover where he wants and haven't seen the blocking. Hopefully we can get some blocking this winter even with low SAI/SCE.

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Yeah we’re gonna be fighting an unfavorable long term base state (warming climate, whether it’s natural or anthropogenically caused) that’s shifting us towards more frequent +NAOs which are being reinforced by the big blocking highs over the North Pacific whose WAFz or “energy” propagates downward into the troposphere over Greenland/E Canada, creating that proverbial Aleutian-Icelandic Low seesaw. The weak El Niño we have coming this winter will interfere with this long term trend and try to force -NAOs as the Aleutian Low and Pacific jet intensify and extend equatorward over the longitudes of active convection in the central tropical Pacific. EQBO to WQBO transition with somewhat low solar and El Niño is a good recipe to trigger a sudden stratospheric warming event this winter, we get a sudden burst of solar between now and then, this may go out the window. I’m excited to see what happens!
 
Accuweather is VERY NE/Mid-Atl biased....I don't take their forecasts for the SE very seriously. Weather.com at least is HQ'd in Atlanta so they put a little more time and effort into our neck of the woods.

That being said, I have a feeling the lower MS valley is going to have a great winter with troughs centered on MS/ARK. Cities like Jackson/Birmingham/Memphis could really score.
 
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LovingGulfLows said:
Accuweather is VERY NE/Mid-Atl biased....I don't take their forecasts for the SE very seriously. Weather.com at least is HQ'd in Atlanta so they put a little more time and effort into our neck of the woods.

That being said, I have a feeling the lower MS valley is going to have a great winter with troughs centered on MS/ARK. Cities like Jackson/Birmingham/Memphis could really score.
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Didn’t BHAM and West GA score a few times last year, east ATL- SC people need some this year, I’m getting tired of .1 to 1in a year when I can drive 45min and see 4-6. Hopefully it’s our turn this year.
 
I though places like southwest Alabama done well last year and I would love to score again, plus my friends to my east. Phil and Larry, this is your year as well.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Accuweather is VERY NE/Mid-Atl biased....I don't take their forecasts for the SE very seriously. Weather.com at least is HQ'd in Atlanta so they put a little more time and effort into our neck of the woods.

That being said, I have a feeling the lower MS valley is going to have a great winter with troughs centered on MS/ARK. Cities like Jackson/Birmingham/Memphis could really score.
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I agree. Based on what I see with the factors already mentioned, including possible weak El Nino, low sunspots, etc., I feel that this may be a great winter for my neck of the woods. Even with last winter, which was overall slightly warmer than average, we saw two snow events. February basically shut down winter for us across the SE. My point is that even if an average winter were forecast, I'd be more interested in the magnitude of cold periods when they come than the overall trend of temps and precip for the 3 month winter as a whole.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Some places in Ga had the snowstorm of a lifetime last December....
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Regarding a different storm, the one in early January, my city didn't have its greatest snowstorm even though it was quite significant (1-2"). However, it did have its highest liquid equivalent for a winter storm in nearly 100 years, 0.75" from a combo of ZR, IP, and SN. Sadly, the official measurements were screwed up due to the ZR and the result was a severe underreporting of liquid equivalent. My gauge had 0.75" melted. The ZR, itself, was near 0.50", which could clearly be seen by examining the ice buildup on the numerous sagging trees. Based on history, it wouldn't at all be surprising if there isn't another winter storm of this magnitude liquid equivalent-wise for many decades to come. OTOH the snowfall of 1-2" would have a decent shot to be met or beaten over the next few decades based on the fact that there were 3 that were 3"+ 1968-1989.
 
accu35 said:
We just need a board wide snowstorm.
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yes and include us this time :p Last year was horrendous to watch

Meanwhile I got to Chicago this afternoon and wow... these temps are like winter in October

The irony is Dallas will be close to this on Monday/Tuesday and worse, with rain and wind...
 
It’s been a while since we’ve had a textbook Miller A bomb out of the gulf with blocking and a strong HP parked to our north. I can’t make any promises, but I’d say we are due
 
Brent said:
yes and include us this time :p Last year was horrendous to watch

Meanwhile I got to Chicago this afternoon and wow... these temps are like winter in October

The irony is Dallas will be close to this on Monday/Tuesday and worse, with rain and wind...
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I would think that highs in the 40s in Dallas in Mid October is nearly unheard of.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I would think that highs in the 40s in Dallas in Mid October is nearly unheard of.
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It is.. The record lowest maximum both days is 60!!!

Theres only been a handful of days stay in the 40s from what i can see and all have been at the end of the month. Closest thing first half of the month is a few mid 50s

Heck the record LOW is 42 on Monday
 
SoutheastRidge said:
It's going to be very hard to top last winter for many areas of the south. You just don't get that kind of snowstorm very often. Maybe once every 30 years.
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That is the downer part. This winter may end up excellent, but the chances of beating last years snows are little to none.
 
Kylo said:
UK Seasonal

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/
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Thanks for the link. I studied the DJF forecasts back to 2009-10. I was happy with what I saw. It was colder than last month's near normal apparently due to strengthening El Nino from borderline weak/mod to borderline mod/strong. Here's last month's DJF forecast. which was based on the weaker El Nino:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...80901_temp2m_months46_global_deter_public.png

The Oct. release of a solid 1-2 F colder than normal is the coldest land area on the globe and is the coldest for the E half of the US as a whole since as far back as the 10 years I can see:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...81001_temp2m_months35_global_deter_public.png

However, it isn't THE coldest for the SE US, itself, as the SE forecasts for 2015-6 were about as chilly:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...51001_temp2m_months35_global_deter_public.png

Note the SLP forecast, which suggests frequent and/or strong W Canadian highs coming SE as well as Miller A Gulf lows going NE over FL and then up off the E coast (perhaps helped out by lingering warm SST anomalies), an exciting combo:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...0181001_mslp_months35_global_deter_public.png

Remember that we're in a warming world and I'm assuming these are vs the 30 year average. So, 1-2 colder than normal is significant nowadays. Then again, the last 4 years of forecasts have been dominated by warmer than normal all over the N Hem. The coldest on any land of the globe the last 3 years is only down to 1-2 colder than normal. Despite GW, there still could be a warm bias that was introduced in 2015.
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The bad news for those hoping it is right is that the track record is not so good:

- 2009-10 called for a mild SE but it was actually very cold: grade F
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...91001_temp2m_months35_global_deter_public.png
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.285.21.17.43.prcp.png

- 2010-1 called for a mild SE but it was actually cold: grade F
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...01001_temp2m_months35_global_deter_public.png
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.285.21.18.13.prcp.png

- 2011-2 called for a warm SE and it was right this time: grade A
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...11001_temp2m_months35_global_deter_public.png
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.285.21.15.33.prcp.png

- 2012-3 called for near normal SE but it was actually very warm: grade C
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...21001_temp2m_months35_global_deter_public.png
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.285.21.19.35.prcp.png

- 2013-4 called for slightly warmer than normal SE and solidly warm in the Midwest but it was actually near to slightly cooler than normal in the SE (not too far off there) and quite cold in the Midwest (far off there): grade B for SE, itself
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...31001_temp2m_months35_global_deter_public.png
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.285.21.21.34.prcp.png

- 2014-5 called for near normal SE and cooler to the NW. It was actually slightly cooler than normal SE and colder to the north..so that was a pretty good forecast overall: grade B
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...41001_temp2m_months35_global_deter_public.png
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.285.21.28.39.prcp.png

- 2015-6 called for a cold SE (1-3 colder than normal, the only other UKMET cold SE forecast) along with a correctly forecasted very strong El Nino, but it actually was warm in the SE: grade F. (However, it did well with its very warm upper Midwest forecast):
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...51001_temp2m_months35_global_deter_public.png
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.285.21.36.51.prcp.png

- 2016-7 called for slightly warmer than normal SE but it was actually very warm: grade C
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...61001_temp2m_months35_global_deter_public.png
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.285.21.42.34.prcp.png

- 2017-8 called for a warm SE and it was right this time: grade A
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...71001_temp2m_months35_global_deter_public.png
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.285.21.44.30.prcp.png

So, for the SE US, tally is 2 A's, 2 B's, 2 C's, and 3 F's. Average grade for the 9 winters: C. The discouraging thing is that for the one time it called for a cold SE, it was anything but that for them or anywhere nearby (2015-6). But the encouraging thing is that this chilly 2018-9 forecast is only the 2nd out of the last 10 winters and with the SE being coldest of any land area on the planet. Furthermore, we're heading for a much weaker El Nino than the very strong one of 2015-6. I would have immediately questioned the UKMET's cold 2015-6 SE forecast with it also forecasting a superstrong El Nino as that didn't jibe and I think I then called for near to perhaps only slightly colder than normal. In addition, the Euro, Jamstec, and Pioneer are all chilly, Finally, the UKMET's SLP forecast suggests a fantastic Miller A type of storm track in combo with frequent and/or strong Arctic highs coming out of NW Canada. The only other UKMET SLP calling for a somewhat similar combo was, you guessed it, its 2015-6 forecast. However, it suggested not as strong nor as Arctic highs:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images...0151001_mslp_months35_global_deter_public.png
 
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Weak El Niño winters are one of the more reliable ways to keep the SE US below average every single month of the winter, we’ll obviously need a few other large scale fortunate bounces to come our way. There’s a definitely better chance 2018-19 doesn’t get off to a sluggish start like we’ve seen so many other El Niños do in the past.
 
Take a big gulp of 90 proof, burp, take another and then proceed to read ...
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pcbjr said:
Take a big gulp of 90 proof, burp, take another and then proceed to read ...
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View attachment 6996
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If I'm looking at the map right, it looks like this winter will be hot in Canada and the northern US and cold in the south which makes me wonder where all the cool air is coming from if the areas further North are so warm.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
If I'm looking at the map right, it looks like this winter will be hot in Canada and the northern US and cold in the south which makes me wonder where all the cool air is coming from if the areas further North are so warm.
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Relative to normal, if you trust the map ... but God works in mysterious ways, I suppose ... :confused: ... (maybe we were all good children this year ... although Charlie's pig gives me significant pause on that thought ...)
 
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SoutheastRidge said:
If I'm looking at the map right, it looks like this winter will be hot in Canada and the northern US and cold in the south which makes me wonder where all the cool air is coming from if the areas further North are so warm.
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What Phil and cd2 said. Cold relative to normal can't be everywhere. There's only so much cold air. Think of the warmth in Canada as blocking. Areas of blocking are warm relative to normal. In this case, cold air is sort of blocked from lingering too long in Canada and instead it comes south. When Canadian highs plunge down into the US, they're often replaced up there with warmer air. Still, much colder than normal in the US is typically as warm or warmer than much of Canada when Canada is much warmer than normal because it modifies after leaving its Canadian cold source. I'd say that for most cold SE winters, a good part of Canada is "warm".
 
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