• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

packfan98 said:
An excellent write-up:
http://blog.weatherops.com/will-sum...76320742&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
Click to expand...
I have to wonder how much weight we can put on this since they rely on a weak to moderate El Nino. I ha.vent been keeping track but aren't we in that time the ENSO possibility of a Nino can decrease, and was it not looking as likely as previously thought? I do agree that September is going to be warm though. Also, the article mentions an increased chance of -NAOs. Anyone see anything that points to this other than ENSO since the article doesn't seem to mention how it's at an increased chance?
 
ForsythSnow said:
I have to wonder how much weight we can put on this since they rely on a weak to moderate El Nino. I ha.vent been keeping track but aren't we in that time the ENSO possibility of a Nino can decrease, and was it not looking as likely as previously thought? I do agree that September is going to be warm though. Also, the article mentions an increased chance of -NAOs. Anyone see anything that points to this other than ENSO since the article doesn't seem to mention how it's at an increased chance?
Click to expand...
Because we're due..... :cool:
 
ForsythSnow said:
I have to wonder how much weight we can put on this since they rely on a weak to moderate El Nino. I ha.vent been keeping track but aren't we in that time the ENSO possibility of a Nino can decrease, and was it not looking as likely as previously thought? I do agree that September is going to be warm though. Also, the article mentions an increased chance of -NAOs. Anyone see anything that points to this other than ENSO since the article doesn't seem to mention how it's at an increased chance?
Click to expand...
I'm not sure. I haven't looked at all of the indicators in detail. I'm hoping that the goalposts are narrowing and we can at least rule out a strong Nino and Ninas.
 
Coach B said:
DT had some really good info on this on his winter speculation video. Talks about all of the major factors and spends a good bit of time on the QBO.
Click to expand...

The early speculation is about as good as it gets for snow chances in many areas. One thing I like to see is December getting cold so the ground temps will drop and snow will stick easier early in the season. Last year may of started the trend for colder Decembers and early storm chances.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I have to wonder how much weight we can put on this since they rely on a weak to moderate El Nino. I ha.vent been keeping track but aren't we in that time the ENSO possibility of a Nino can decrease, and was it not looking as likely as previously thought? I do agree that September is going to be warm though. Also, the article mentions an increased chance of -NAOs. Anyone see anything that points to this other than ENSO since the article doesn't seem to mention how it's at an increased chance?
Click to expand...

The blog post is betting on ENSO as the driver for the -NAO, which is what most forecasters will rely on. We will either get a weak or moderate El Niño +- modoki type...which lucky for us, all probable scenarios should feature a -NAO (DJF wall-to-wall on average), but especially in February, which is why their forecast is back loaded.
 
1300m said:
My opinion is that with the background Modoki Nino forcing, if Siberian Snowfall is significant in October, it could lead to an early onset of a wintry pattern in December, ala 2009 and 2010. My thoughts on Siberian Snowfall have certainly evolved over the past 5 years or so, but I still believe in the mechanisms behind it -- especially for the first half of winter -- and especially if there are other large scale forcings such as the QBO and ENSO that are also having negative inputs on the polar vortex.
Click to expand...
Last December was also nice especially with the early snow storm. Maybe we are trending towards colder Decembers now which would be great.
 
GaStorm said:
Last December was also nice especially with the early snow storm. Maybe we are trending towards colder Decembers now which would be great.
Click to expand...
IMO, I would rather have a warm December, sacrifice it, if you will. There is rarely a winter with DJF are cold so you know there’s going to be a warmer pattern set up at some point, like last year’s February. I’d rather have the heart of winter in Jan/Feb, toss December! Just my 2 cents
 
Tarheel1 said:
IMO, I would rather have a warm December, sacrifice it, if you will. There is rarely a winter with DJF are cold so you know there’s going to be a warmer pattern set up at some point, like last year’s February. I’d rather have the heart of winter in Jan/Feb, toss December! Just my 2 cents
Click to expand...
Well if that means the last week or so of December is at least seasonal I'm good with that too.
 
This is from Accuweather.

FB_IMG_1535913744485.jpg

2dyot4.jpg
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Tarheel1 said:
IMO, I would rather have a warm December, sacrifice it, if you will. There is rarely a winter with DJF are cold so you know there’s going to be a warmer pattern set up at some point, like last year’s February. I’d rather have the heart of winter in Jan/Feb, toss December! Just my 2 cents
Click to expand...
I like a cold December and at least the first part of January. I can sacrifice a bit of January and a week of February as long as the rest of February turns cold.
 
Rain Cold said:
I like a cold December and at least the first part of January. I can sacrifice a bit of January and a week of February as long as the rest of February turns cold.
Click to expand...
Large snows are rare in Dec for Raleigh so I’m wondering why you want it cold and you’re willing to sacrifice time in Jan and Feb? Lol. Man. I would sacrifice the entire month of Dec for a cold J-F. As long as it’s cold on Christmas I don’t really care about the first 3 weeks.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Jon said:
Large snows are rare in Dec for Raleigh so I’m wondering why you want it cold and you’re willing to sacrifice time in Jan and Feb? Lol. Man. I would sacrifice the entire month of Dec for a cold J-F. As long as it’s cold on Christmas I don’t really care about the first 3 weeks.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Heck, if it was 75 on Christmas but had a 6 inch snowstorm in January, I would still call it a winter.
 
I'd like to see one huge storm in January, followed by two weeks of tundra weather... Then bookend the winter with record warm. Be nice to see a March 93 like snowstorm hit in January around here. I don't need 2 feet, but how about 12 inches, and a week of sub freezing highs and lows around -5 to 5 above for a few nights? Not too much to ask is it?
 
Jon said:
Large snows are rare in Dec for Raleigh so I’m wondering why you want it cold and you’re willing to sacrifice time in Jan and Feb? Lol. Man. I would sacrifice the entire month of Dec for a cold J-F. As long as it’s cold on Christmas I don’t really care about the first 3 weeks.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Because I’m Rain Cold and that’s just the way it is! :)

I love a cold December. Gets me in the mood for Christmas and the winter season. And truth be told, we always sacrifice some of January and/or February anyway. And more truth be told, my wishes have little bearing on what happens anyway, much to my chagrin. :( But as long as we’re awishin’, how bout we take December-March and make it 4 months of cold and snow?! That’s a dream I could get behind!
 
Rain Cold said:
Because I’m Rain Cold and that’s just the way it is! :)

I love a cold December. Gets me in the mood for Christmas and the winter season. And truth be told, we always sacrifice some of January and/or February anyway. And more truth be told, my wishes have little bearing on what happens anyway, much to my chagrin. :( But as long as we’re awishin’, how bout we take December-March and make it 4 months of cold and snow?! That’s a dream I could get behind!
Click to expand...
Your dream is much like a Weak Nino composite and we’re headed that way.


Hopefully it’s a weak El Niño
83bd0705941839d74c9e7976b33c0c90.png


And not a Moderate
9a9c37aa45a9347db3a9cd1787b457ca.png


Feb will be rocking AND you’d get your cold December.
e6359e93e23abf0d4d62c53735eae352.png


DJF
bac1d5af5edf80b3f06344a3aa065afb.png


March
76e4752d083d0de532e03b43417a9565.png

8e2ed6b1ec7b10f442250fbd18b4b9e9.png




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top