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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

SimeonNC said:
Get ready to experience the best and worst of the CLT microclimate my friend :p
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I'm preparing myself for Charlotte to end up near the rain-snow line in at least one big dog this winter, and I'm not saying this purely out of respect for climatology alone. El Nino winters like the one we're entering are very notorious for ramping up the climatological snowfall gradients over the piedmont of NC (even more so than normal) and climatologically favored areas of the northwestern piedmont and mountains tend to get slammed, it's often a game of inches near the US HWY 1 corridor. You won't find a much better example of this in the historical record than the strong El Nino winter of 1930-31.

Winter of 1930-31 NC Snowmap.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm preparing myself for Charlotte to end up near the rain-snow line in at least one big dog this winter, and I'm not saying this purely out of respect for climatology alone. El Nino winters like the one we're entering are very notorious for ramping up the climatological snowfall gradients over the piedmont of NC (even more so than normal) and climatologically favored areas of the northwestern piedmont and mountains tend to get slammed, it's often a game of inches near the US HWY 1 corridor. You won't find a much better example of this in the historical record than the strong El Nino winter of 1930-31.

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Yeah, even in non-Ninos there can be large gradients. Back during the storm of Jan 17 my area was sleet for most of that storm, while my friend who lives just twenty minutes away near Cornelius stayed all snow and ended up with around 7 inches.
 
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Bham 99 said:
I just moved to charlotte last Spring. What kind of microclimates are here?
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As Eric pointed out, the Charlotte area can be and is often near or on the rain/snow/mix line during winter events. It can basically come down to what neighborhood are you in. Basically the rule is if you are in the northern suburbs up to Statesville you will receive more snow, the more south you are the more likely it is you will receive only a mix or even just rain.
 
SimeonNC said:
As Eric pointed out, the Charlotte area can be and is often near or on the rain/snow/mix line during winter events. It can basically come down to what neighborhood are you in. Basically the rule is if you are in the northern suburbs up to Statesville you will receive more snow, the more south you are the more likely it is you will receive only a mix or even just rain.
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You are absolutely correct. I have lived in western NC for more than 50 years and most big winter storms have a rain/snow line somewhere near I-85. From Atlanta through the Greenville SC area and northeast to Charlotte and up towards Raleigh Durham. That's the climatologically favored line. It's due, in part, to how the cold air dams in here east of the mountains even at the 850mb level. Another factor is the storm track. The temperature gradient we have at the coast during winter, favors at track along the the thermal gradient. Last, is the strength and temperature of the cold air mass you have to work with. A very cold arctic air mass could push that rain/snow line well to the south, even though you have an identical storm-track. It's one of the biggest challenges that face winter forecasters in North Ga, Upstate SC, and the Piedmont of NC with each winter event. Where is that line going to set up? However, if you go with climo, you will be right more times than you are wrong.
 
Kylo said:
Cohen winter model forecast. This would suck. 07 was similar temp gradient.

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Tarheel1 said:
Isn’t he the Eurasia October snowcover guru! If his model works as good as his snowcover theory, we toss his forecast!? He needs JB’s pioneer model, that’s never wrong!:mad:
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ForsythSnow said:
Yeah he literally lists on his website that his forecasts are derived from the snow over theory over Eurasia. More than likely he will bust in my opinion.
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And as long as I have been on the weather forums, I don't think I have seen his winter forecasts ever end up being right.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm preparing myself for Charlotte to end up near the rain-snow line in at least one big dog this winter, and I'm not saying this purely out of respect for climatology alone. El Nino winters like the one we're entering are very notorious for ramping up the climatological snowfall gradients over the piedmont of NC (even more so than normal) and climatologically favored areas of the northwestern piedmont and mountains tend to get slammed, it's often a game of inches near the US HWY 1 corridor. You won't find a much better example of this in the historical record than the strong El Nino winter of 1930-31.

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And we know Wake County will be right on the line of epic snow or cold rain.
 
SimeonNC said:
As Eric pointed out, the Charlotte area can be and is often near or on the rain/snow/mix line during winter events. It can basically come down to what neighborhood are you in. Basically the rule is if you are in the northern suburbs up to Statesville you will receive more snow, the more south you are the more likely it is you will receive only a mix or even just rain.
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That's certainly true. As a long time Charlottean I-85 is your line. If you're north of it, you have a better chance of being in the frozen. If you're south, you're mostly rain or sleet. If you want all snow south of 85, look for the 850s to be around Columbia SC. I have no idea why that is or what causes it, only that the boundary layer thermals ALWAYS line up +/- around I-85. I lived in the Mountain Island lake area north west of Charlotte for many years and I benefited from being north of the interstate...but 10 minutes north of me in Huntersville, Cornelius, and Denver always got 150% at least of what I did. I've recently moved to Mooresville, north of Charlotte, so I'm sure I screwed it all up and this year the boundary layers will park on HWY 150!

On the plus side, Charlotte gets in on everything. It's right in the middle of the Carolinas geographically so the location of the storm, on the coast, a bit inland, a bit off shore doesn't make much of a difference of getting something frozen...usually. However you're just always sweating the boundary layers. 850s are good to know you're in the game. But at game time, ALWAYS, ALWAYS look at 900 boundary layer and surface temps when expecting a storm. You'll know what you're going to get from that (HRRR/RGEM). The Miller B's we've been getting the last few years, just expect some snow with a sleet fest. Unless it's a nice coastal Miller A, or at least a hybrid, CLT usually doesn't get all snow IMO.
 
87 had a nice gradient for snowfall. Wake in the 5-10” range and 30 miles west is the 20-30” range. Was in GSO at the time and I swear we didn’t go to school for a month, think we had 30”.

Though I wouldn’t complain about a 87 repeat for Raleigh, 5-10” would be great.

A8BDD689-A671-4851-811D-993E60916680.png
 
Kylo said:
87 had a nice gradient for snowfall. Wake in the 5-10” range and 30 miles west is the 20-30” range. Was in GSO at the time and I swear we didn’t go to school for a month, think we had 30”.

Though I wouldn’t complain about a 87 repeat for Raleigh, 5-10” would be great.

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Anything less than 6 inches is a disappointment.
 
Just a preview of things to come from December through February.
 
Tarheel1 said:
View attachment 7065 WTF?? He’d still be calling for rain, if temps were in the teens! SMDH
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This setup would be a lock for heavy rain to light rain to backend zr..but seriously this setup would favor an ice storm in January imo. It would find a way to bomb out and send 850’s above freezing while the mountains get crushed
 
Other than Judah Cohen being wrong the last few winters with his largely Oct Siberian snowcover based winter AO forecasts as well most here never wanting a mild winter, can anyone think of any other reason his mild winter 2018-9 forecast is being tossed other than a cold Pioneer model forecast? Keep in mind El Nino is looking a good bit stronger vs how the weak that was earlier favored by many. (OHC is over +1.60 now and still rising.) Even a strong El Nino can no longer be dismissed as a reasonable possibility. And don't forget we've been in a warming world.
 
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GaWx said:
Other than Judah Cohen being wrong the last few winters with his largely Oct Siberian snowcover based winter AO forecasts as well most here never wanting a mild winter, can anyone think of any other reason his mild winter 2018-9 forecast is being tossed other than a cold Pioneer model forecast? Keep in mind El Nino is looking a good bit stronger vs how the weak that was earlier favored by many. (OHC is over +1.60 now and still rising.) Even a strong El Nino can no longer be dismissed as a reasonable possibility. And don't forget we've been in a warming world.
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I’ll still take our chances with a strong Niño, we can score a good ice event or two, than that dumpster fire Nina we had last winter! Just the sheer amount of clouds and precip from the STJ, should argue for some BN months at some point this winter or right around normal, even without a lot of frigid cold getting down here!
 
GaWx said:
Other than Judah Cohen being wrong the last few winters with his largely Oct Siberian snowcover based winter AO forecasts as well most here never wanting a mild winter, can anyone think of any other reason his mild winter 2018-9 forecast is being tossed other than a cold Pioneer model forecast? Keep in mind El Nino is looking a good bit stronger vs how the weak that was earlier favored by many. (OHC is over +1.60 now and still rising.) Even a strong El Nino can no longer be dismissed as a reasonable possibility. And don't forget we've been in a warming world.
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So far October is behaving closer to the cold winter nino analogs than the warm ones. The cold ones had further east based Aleutian low and when October ends I think it will be really close to the composite of the cold nino analogs. I didn't differentiate in nino strength though, but didn't include the super nino's. I would bet the central pac nino's are cold too.



Oct2018.gif

warmninos.png

coldNinos.png
 
Kylo said:
87 had a nice gradient for snowfall. Wake in the 5-10” range and 30 miles west is the 20-30” range. Was in GSO at the time and I swear we didn’t go to school for a month, think we had 30”.

Though I wouldn’t complain about a 87 repeat for Raleigh, 5-10” would be great.

View attachment 7062
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From experience, im personally not the biggest fan of the MRCC maps for anything more than getting a very basic firsthand look at the regional, multi-state snow behavior because they’re excessively smoothed and a lot of the data that’s put into them hasn’t been quality controlled. More than half of Wake Co was actually well over 10” that winter, one event in mid February dropped 8” of sleet on northern Wake by itself and there was an extremely huge drop off to about 2” once you got to Smithfield. The amounts and their distribution aren’t all that dissimilar from 1930-31 although I think 1930-31 has the upper hand for total statewide snowfall
 
Tarheel1 said:
View attachment 7065 WTF?? He’d still be calling for rain, if temps were in the teens! SMDH
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where did this new disdain for -------- come from? He nailed Michael for CLT, he doesn't put out hype, he's probably the best met in Charlotte. What has he said that was so wrong that you make nonsensical statements like this? Genuinely curious...
 
noda-wx said:
where did this new disdain for -------- come from? He nailed Michael for CLT, he doesn't put out hype, he's probably the best met in Charlotte. What has he said that was so wrong that you make nonsensical statements like this? Genuinely curious...
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Because he isn't a weenie and doesn't call for biblical snowfall everytime the models show a fantasy snowstorm.
 
GaWx said:
Other than Judah Cohen being wrong the last few winters with his largely Oct Siberian snowcover based winter AO forecasts as well most here never wanting a mild winter, can anyone think of any other reason his mild winter 2018-9 forecast is being tossed other than a cold Pioneer model forecast? Keep in mind El Nino is looking a good bit stronger vs how the weak that was earlier favored by many. (OHC is over +1.60 now and still rising.) Even a strong El Nino can no longer be dismissed as a reasonable possibility. And don't forget we've been in a warming world.
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We don’t have enough time imo to get a strong El Niño at least this year anyway (if we somehow did it would take several weeks for the atmosphere to catch up and by then may be too little too late) and while I wouldn’t discount his forecast entirely it looks very similar to a pure AO/NAO correlation and what the US temps look like after December in strong Niños with a formidable polar vortex. Interannual variability seems to suggest even if the vortex becomes strong, given the prominence of North Pacific/Alaska blocking we may be cold again anyway in spite of it especially as we get into February (as you would normally expect in an El Niño). I personally would forecast 1-2F below average temps in the SE US given all of the above, warming background climate, and a heightened threat of one out of the next 4-5 months (most likely December if anything) being very warm. Every winter the last 3 years has had at least one month that was close to or record breaking warm on or between December and March. I think our chances of ending that streak are decent this year but this should be lurking in the back of everyone’s mind.
 
noda-wx said:
where did this new disdain for -------- come from? He nailed Michael for CLT, he doesn't put out hype, he's probably the best met in Charlotte. What has he said that was so wrong that you make nonsensical statements like this? Genuinely curious...
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He sucks at forecasting snow,and never says it will snow, until it’s falling, others can verify.
Also, 2-3 days before Michael made landfall, he said the effects of Michael would be very little in the CLT area,wind or rain. That was obviously wrong too
 
Tarheel1 said:
He sucks at forecasting snow,and never says it will snow, until it’s falling, others can verify.
Also, 2-3 days before Michael made landfall, he said the effects of Michael would be very little in the CLT area,wind or rain. That was obviously wrong too
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gusts to 40mph and 2.5" of rain was what verified for Charlotte concerning Michael. I don't think Brad was the one that was wrong.
 
noda-wx said:
gusts to 40mph and 2.5" of rain was what verified for Charlotte concerning Michael. I don't think Brad was the one that was wrong.
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He said minimal impacts from wind or rain. All the trees down and 10’s of thousands around CLT, who lost power,would disagree with his “ minimal impacts”!
 
Webberweather53 said:
We don’t have enough time imo to get a strong El Niño at least this year anyway (if we somehow did it would take several weeks for the atmosphere to catch up and by then may be too little too late) and while I wouldn’t discount his forecast entirely it looks very similar to a pure AO/NAO correlation and what the US temps look like after December in strong Niños with a formidable polar vortex. Interannual variability seems to suggest even if the vortex becomes strong, given the prominence of North Pacific/Alaska blocking we may be cold again anyway in spite of it especially as we get into February (as you would normally expect in an El Niño). I personally would forecast 1-2F below average temps in the SE US given all of the above, warming background climate, and a heightened threat of one out of the next 4-5 months (most likely December if anything) being very warm. Every winter the last 3 years has had at least one month that was close to or record breaking warm on or between December and March. I think our chances of ending that streak are decent this year but this should be lurking in the back of everyone’s mind.
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Im glad I'm not the only person at least concerned about December being warm

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SD said:
Im glad I'm not the only person at least concerned about December being warm

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
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Would not be surprising. Seems like there is a trend towards December's being very warm.Even last winter with the huge snowstorm, ATL still ended up above normal for temps in December. I just hope it's not warmer than Dec 2015 when ATL was 12 degrees above normal.
 
noda-wx said:
where did this new disdain for -------- come from? He nailed Michael for CLT, he doesn't put out hype, he's probably the best met in Charlotte. What has he said that was so wrong that you make nonsensical statements like this? Genuinely curious...
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He easily dismisses the model out-puts even within 24 hours. It has become his trademark. His snowfall estimates always fall way short and then he plays catch-up on every storm. I would rather watch Eric Thomas any day of the week.
 
noda-wx said:
gusts to 40mph and 2.5" of rain was what verified for Charlotte concerning Michael. I don't think Brad was the one that was wrong.
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interesting... official gust in CLT was 46mph. and many in suburbs had 50+.... Brad said on twitter 30-35 max... Doesn't realy seem too accurate to me, but then again maybe you consider 20mph off as accurate? then if so yeah he nailed it.

I cant find an "official" output from good old brad but I have this tweet screenshot. abt 24 hrs from start of event. He clearly completely ignores all trends and goes with who knows what honestly.
IMG_7269.jpg

You have those that way over-hype storms. And you have those that always under-hype storms. Brad is and has been proven to be a chronic under-hyper.
 
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I can tell the difference between food actually cooked vs straight out of the can and into the microwave
 
SimeonNC said:
As Eric pointed out, the Charlotte area can be and is often near or on the rain/snow/mix line during winter events. It can basically come down to what neighborhood are you in. Basically the rule is if you are in the northern suburbs up to Statesville you will receive more snow, the more south you are the more likely it is you will receive only a mix or even just rain.
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Ok thanks for the info.
 
Not sure if this comment goes here or in the October Oscitance thread, but the weather for the last few days has been more typical of El Nino winter for this area. Coastal lows, stalled cold air masses, making for cool rainy days. Except that it's not as cool as it would be if this were December or January with this pattern set up. Hopefully we'll get more of that kind of weather for this area in the heart of winter.
 
Interesting to see Aug/Sep with solidly -SOI but looks like Oct will finish positive. Quickly glancing, looks like 86 was the only nino past 40 years that was similar. Would be nice path to follow.
 
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