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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

So much energy flying around out there. Love what I’m seeing on the 850 vort and wind maps. If we can keep this up it’s not a matter of “if” but “when”
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
So much energy flying around out there. Love what I’m seeing on the 850 vort and wind maps. If we can keep this up it’s not a matter of “if” but “when”
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I agree. It’s been a while since I’ve seen such an active pattern heading into winter. If we get a pattern close to this active in late December into January many people will have multiple threats.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
I agree. It’s been a while since I’ve seen such an active pattern heading into winter. If we get a pattern close to this active in late December into January many people will have multiple threats.
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Always the big if. We can only hope for an active pattern and as already mentioned, we are just a bit too early for a pattern to provide wintery weather here though it is a cold and stormy one.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Always the big if. We can only hope for an active pattern and as already mentioned, we are just a bit too early for a pattern to provide wintery weather here though it is a cold and stormy one.
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With a nino, the hope is yes it's going to be active, at least more active than the last few winters. Just have to figure out the temps part. Will it be cold? Will we get blocking? I don't know but November is starting to come into sight. Looks like it's going to be warm, with riding in the wrong places. Is that good or bad going into winter? I've heard both through the years.

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SnowNiner said:
With a nino, the hope is yes it's going to be active, at least more active than the last few winters. Just have to figure out the temps part. Will it be cold? Will we get blocking? I don't know but November is starting to come into sight. Looks like it's going to be warm, with riding in the wrong places. Is that good or bad going into winter? I've heard both through the years.

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I’d rather have it cold/below normal, in months it can actually snow! Give us a trough in the E in D,J,F, I’m good with that. I think it’s wasteful, outside of Roxboro, to have cold in Nov or March, IMO
 
Don't like losing the Aleutian low for November, would take that as a bad sign. Hopefully it makes a quick return.

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Kylo said:
Don't like losing the Aleutian low for November, would take that as a bad sign. Hopefully it makes a quick return.

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Yeah for the fact that you want continued wave-1 forcing to disturb the polar vortex early on, it's usually good to keep the Aleutian Low strong, granted there are other ways to do this but at least we have a Scandinavian ridge for the foreseeable future ensuring that the PV doesn't become exceptionally strong even if the Aleutian Low falters for a while.
Something to look/hope for as we get deeper into November is to monitor the amplitude of the Scandinavian ridge. If the Scandinavian high were to amplify, it would eventually begin to retrograde westward and become a negative NAO late in November. Large, retrogressive Scandinavian ridges are actually the main pathway thru which we get long-lasting & strong negative NAOs, anticyclones "breaking" poleward from the south into Greenland & Iceland rarely work out in our favor in the long run.
 
Tarheel1 said:
I’d rather have it cold/below normal, in months it can actually snow! Give us a trough in the E in D,J,F, I’m good with that. I think it’s wasteful, outside of Roxboro, to have cold in Nov or March, IMO
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Same here. And we know how things can switch from one week to the next. October went from 90 to 60 almost overnight. I'd actually rather have a warm November because I think that means we're eventually going to switch to cold down the road. We're never going to get cold for the whole winter. I'd rather start warm and switch to cold than to be cold in November and December and then switch to warm in January and February when we usually get the most snow.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Same here. And we know how things can switch from one week to the next. October went from 90 to 60 almost overnight. I'd actually rather have a warm November because I think that means we're eventually going to switch to cold down the road. We're never going to get cold for the whole winter. I'd rather start warm and switch to cold than to be cold in November and December and then switch to warm in January and February when we usually get the most snow.
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You’ve said repeatedly that you don’t like it cold unless it is snowing, which is at most just a tiny bit of winter. You complain about cold all the time unless it happens to be snowing. Do you still feel this way?
 
I don't like when it's warm around the holidays ( November and December). Something about the cold just puts me in the holiday spirit. If I had to choose between having a cold and snowy Nov and Dec or a cold and snowy Jan or Feb, I would definitely choose Nov and Dec.
 
GaWx said:
You’ve said repeatedly that you don’t like it cold unless it is snowing, which is at most just a tiny bit of winter. You complain about cold all the time unless it happens to be snowing. Do you still feel this way?
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I feel that way, cold is great only if it’s snowing, if it’s not snowing I want it in the 60s all winter. A cold dry day is just awful. At least when it’s warm you can do outside activities.
 
NoSnowATL said:
I feel that way, cold is great only if it’s snowing, if it’s not snowing I want it in the 60s all winter. A cold dry day is just awful. At least when it’s warm you can do outside activities.
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I will take a cold, dry day over a cold, wet day ! Unless its a wet snow !
 
Just to touch on what I was alluding to earlier with regards to wave 1 forcing on the stratospheric polar vortex. Scandinavian ridge + Aleutian Low couplet is a pattern that usually helps disrupt the polar vortex if it persists because these height anomalies are superimposed onto the standing planetary waves that are tied to major topographic features (like the Himalayas & Rockies).
 
At this point I'll take any avaible cold I can get even if it's not snowing, yes I love snow but if some in here only likes cold when it's snowing then your winter days are very short. Mine are long because I'm happy to get what I get dry or wet.
 
NoSnowATL said:
I feel that way, cold is great only if it’s snowing, if it’s not snowing I want it in the 60s all winter. A cold dry day is just awful. At least when it’s warm you can do outside activities.
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no way. we're guaranteed warmth 95% of the year...I cherish the cold while it's here. I'd prefer snow, but I'll gladly take highs in the 20's and sunny.
 
If it's warmer than normal in November...cool. Unless it's crazy stuff it's going to mean 70s anyway.

I'm almost tempted to say the same thing with December too. January and February are the money maker months.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
If it's warmer than normal in November...cool. Unless it's crazy stuff it's going to mean 70s anyway.

I'm almost tempted to say the same thing with December too. January and February are the money maker months.
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No no no !!!! Gotta have cool weather in December to make things more festive ! Plus i would hate to waste what is on average the 2nd coldest month of the year.
 
pcbjr said:
Dadgum it but suppose it's better than 8 weeks from now ... :(

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I don't have a problem with it when considering that even warmer than normal then will be much more comfy than just about any summer day. And if it is warmer than normal in 8 weeks, that's fine, too, because that would likely mean 70s to at most low 80s for highs here and much drier than summer as well as a break on heating costs. Still very pleasant. I'd rather have some cold at least mixed in to make it more interesting (up and down) and we'll get some cold at some point since we always do, but it is an enjoyable time of year for outdoor activities, regardless of the temperatures unless we have a rare frigid airmass, as long as it isn't raining.
 
GaWx said:
I don't have a problem with it when considering that even warmer than normal then will be much more comfy than just about any summer day. And if it is warmer than normal in 8 weeks, that's fine, too, because that would likely mean 70s to at most low 80s for highs here and much drier than summer as well as a break on heating costs. Still very pleasant. I'd rather have some cold at least mixed in to make it more interesting (up and down) and we'll get some cold at some point since we always do, but it is an enjoyable time of year for outdoor activities, regardless of the temperatures unless we have a rare frigid airmass, as long as it isn't raining.
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Eternal optimism ... ;)
 
GaWx said:
Very sticky summers that keep someone like me from walking outside is what I attribute my feelings to. Just about anything is better the rest of the year.
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Like I said, "eternal optimism" ... which was meant to be very positive ... :cool:
 
FB4AFD62-15A3-4753-90A0-1A28981F25F3.png Don’t know if this was already posted, but pray it’s wrong , if you like cold and snow!
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Honestly does it really matter if it's a warm or cold winter in the south? I'm not sure the chances for snow increase dramatically in a cold winter vs a warm winter.
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My research of ATL winters back to 1879-1880 shows that there actually is a fairly strong correlation between cold/warm winters and above average/below average wintry precip (including ZR):

cold winters: 70% above average wintry
near normal winters: 50% abobve average wintry
warm winters: 30% above average wintry

What there's not a strong correlation (or much of any correlation with TBH) is precip.
 
Rain Cold said:
0.4 F above normal for the winter. Oh the humanity!!! :)
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Sadly, I think he’s basing this off his Asia snowcover in October theory, which has proven to crap! And I wanna hear about that 0.4 of a degree, when your sitting at 32.4 and wondering why it’s raining!:D
 
ATL: For higher than normal wintry precip winters:
- 20 wetter than norma;
- 25 near normal precip
- 22 drier than normal

So, temps have had a big say so at ATL regarding wintry precip. but not whether or not it was a wet or dry winter! I don't think many folks realize this. I sure didn't until I did the research.

So, when winter forecasts are put out, concentrate on the temps, not the precip..
 
GaWx said:
ATL: For higher than normal wintry precip winters:
- 20 wetter than norma;
- 25 near normal precip
- 22 drier than normal

So, temps have had a big say so at ATL regarding wintry precip. but not whether or not it was a wet or dry winter! I don't think many folks realize this. I sure didn't until I did the research.

So, when winter forecasts are put out, concentrate on the temps, not the precip..
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Hey, Larry ... Just a segue thought ... cold air tends to squeeze moisture regardless of relative content (unless it's summer ... in which case ...)
 
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pcbjr said:
Hey, Larry ... Just a segue thought ... cold air tends to squeeze moisture regardless of relative content (unless it's summer ... in which case ...)
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Phil,
Yeah, perhaps that's a factor in the overall scheme of things. Now to be sure, wetter hasn't hurt but it also hasn't helped overall on average. I was a little surprised about these findings but not shocked.
 
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