What's the most snowfall you have seen while living in FL ?Yeah, but the whimsical fantasy of a dusting ...
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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
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pcbjr
Member
Larry will shoot me if I miss the date again ...
Christmas, 1989 ... not official since it was snow on top of ice here, but about 1 and 1/2 "; maybe 2" in Alachua; Jax was a good solid 3" in parts (mostly on the south and west sides of town ... again, not official but what my eyeball and ruler could discern)
Well, I think I speak for everyone when I say you are due ! Crossing my fingers for a repeat of the Blizzard of 1899 !!! Lake Butler had 4" in that snowstorm !
It was one of my personal favorite storms as it all stuck and came in the late afternoon. While walking through town this young girl went off the road and into a ditch. She the proceeds to jump out of the car and try to push it out herself while I walked her way. She saw me laughing hysterically as she might have been 100 pounds soaking wet. We got her out of the ditch but I’ll never forget how she didn’t hesitate to think she could move that car herself.
That winter was pure torture for winter weather lovers along the I-20 corridor. To see so much cold go to waste while areas not much further north were getting pounded was a really hard pill to swallow. What made it even harder was there were like 3 different ice and snow events and all of them missed me to the north.
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If we were setting up a pattern where we had a parade of suppressed storms it's very likely. Fortunately, it doesn't appear to be the case. I think most if not all of us will do very well on the snow front this winter.
2/1899 is probably the only active Southernwx member SE US board-wide storm over the last couple of hundred years. Not Phil’s and my only one, but the only one that also hit practically all in the SE quite hard. The very rare ones that have hit either or both us are often so suppressed that northern parts of the SE US often miss out. Great example: 12/1989.
Anyway, one can dream....
Edit: By the way, 2/1899 wasn’t during El Niño.
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pcbjr
Member
... and eat a pizza while doing so ...
Brent
Member
BHS1975
Member
Looks like the snow pack is going to be building up quickly in Canada the next couple of weeks.
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Storm5
Member
This is sexy
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NoSnowATL
Member
Oh have I missed this map.This is sexy
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It has begun....
whatalife
Moderator
This is sexy
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Where is the month of January when you need it....
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SnowNiner
Member
^^Fantasy Carolina snow in November, impressive.
It's just teasing us, it's not going to really happen. It's not real...doesn't mean anything for winter, it'll disappear the next cycle. Can't, won't believe....
It's just teasing us, it's not going to really happen. It's not real...doesn't mean anything for winter, it'll disappear the next cycle. Can't, won't believe....
accu35
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Lol, I hear ya. One thing to believe here, is that the pattern is shaping up to be stormy and strong cold fronts, so I can see something early this season if we keep getting models runs like these. I remember last year at this time someone on here said the same thing I'm saying, if we keep seeing the models spitting out cold solutions and in the LR, than something gonna eventually pop up. Im excited either way about this upcoming winter.^^Fantasy Carolina snow in November, impressive.
It's just teasing us, it's not going to really happen. It's not real...doesn't mean anything for winter, it'll disappear the next cycle. Can't, won't believe....
Gotta love the Miller A look. If that comes to fruition I think we will be laying down the pattern for more gulf storms down the road.
Where is the month of January when you need it....
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seriously..
if we get this storm in late December with the same 2m and 850 anomolies its an absolute crush job. Grief. If we can hold on to this pattern through winter’s entirety...
Where is the month of January when you need it....
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Chattownsnow
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SnowNiner
Member
I'm not sure if what's shown for mid November can get much better. +PNA (west coast ridge) east coast trough, -AO/-NAO, active split flow, lower heights off of the east coast, etc. It's SE Miller A central. I'm not jazzed about something frozen happening in November, but I'd like to think this could portend well for winter if it holds a while. But I refuse to get my hopes up!
I'm not sure about that. A lot of the maps I have seen show the cold centered further south.they did a really good job last year with there winter forecast. Just thought I would throw this out there
WXinCanton
Member
Here is Allan's winter forecast:
http://raleighwxmodels.com/awhuffma/Winter/Winter2018-19Forecast.pdf
http://raleighwxmodels.com/awhuffma/Winter/Winter2018-19Forecast.pdf
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Just because there is a further south center doesn't mean it's right. That could entirely be possible if the cores of the cold pass that far south or the dips don't go too far south. I'm more inclined to lean towards the strong cold highs going into Indiana and Ohio areas, making the difference from the average higher than further south producing a map like that. I don't buy GA, AL, and SC as well as the other SE states being the coldest from the other maps nationwide. Not sure when that has happened in a season like what we could have coming.
He seems to be going for a back loaded winter with a brutally cold February, but we may torch in December. It seems that since we are headed toward a cooler period up ahead, we could very well have a warmer December at least for part of it. I'll be interested to see where we are at in a month since that will be our point we can tell if we are headed in the right direction or not.
Fountainguy97
Member
He also mentions the possibility of December being colder as well. Seems instead of a guaranteed torch month its a toss up for December. I agree 100% with his forecast. I think low solar will be a bigger influence than many are giving it. And it should subdue our typical "torch" December into a more mild/average December. I think we have a very solid chance of a large storm in the Eastern US in the last 10 days of December. I'm calling it.
Storm5
Member
I’m not comforted by the fact the majority of forecasters are going cold and snowy for the south .
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whatalife
Moderator
Storm5
Member
Where do I sign up for this December patten ??? Asking for a friend
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
I'm not going to make any guesses personally, but Augusta's snowfall total, I'm pretty sure that's going to be 0" or at least 3" in most cases. There's very, very rarely the in between of a nickel and dime event of a half inch to an inch and usually that nickel and dime event is going to just be snow TV like earlier this year.
Although I have observed a couple of times where we did wind up having a nickel and dime event. 2011 and 2016. In 2016 I was dubious then too yet woke up and a half an inch of snow was on the ground.
Although I have observed a couple of times where we did wind up having a nickel and dime event. 2011 and 2016. In 2016 I was dubious then too yet woke up and a half an inch of snow was on the ground.
packfan98
Moderator
I'm concerned that we may have to wait until February for fun and games. Many of us are very impatient if we don't see a favorable pattern on the horizon by the end of December. It may be a long couple of months of whining and complaining...
Brent
Member
now we're getting somewhere...
Back loaded winters absolutely suck. There's nothing worse than having to wait until almost spring time to get your first snow. Plus by then you have to worry about sun angle more. Give me a front loaded winter with lots of snow and cold in December and early January any day.
NoSnowATL
Member
Yes for Georgia I feel like February is the most active, January tends to have ice storms more, might be wrong. Winter doesn’t starts for me until Christmas since we don’t even have a chance of snow until that time period.
Really just a gut feeling here but seeing how October flipped overnight and some of the indications heading into December..... I'll be shocked if some of us don't have a decent winter weather threat before Christmas
Last winter says otherwise ! But yeah usually GA is more likely to get snow in Feb than Dec which absolutely sucks !
SnowNiner
Member
A backloaded winter for you is just called winter in the Carolinas
. It's rare in my opinion to get a December storm (last year was a rarity, and I didn't get much of anything in Charlotte). Anything in December is bonus. The real snow season IMO is January and February. However if we get what's advertised for mid November to crawl and keep going in December maybe this will be one of those special seasons.
Jon
Member
A backloaded winter for you is just called winter in the Carolinas
Exactly. Don’t waste good patterns on December. Give me a spectacular pattern from Jan 15-Feb 15....people seem to get hung up over December not producing, they just don’t want to wait until peak winter for snow? Ok.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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It’s a scary proposition to hold out till Mid January to mid February, for all your winter action, or you could end up with a torch last half of Jan and all of February, like last winter , and keep looking 15 days out for hope, and then you get a miserable March and April of cold rain. So I’d rather get it anytime, than waiting for the back load
Storm5
Member
I don’t understand the whole waiting mentality. Snow in the south is rare enough . Who the hell cares what month it comes in ??? In the last 8 years I’ve had a true white Christmas with over 4 inches of snow on Christmas Day and many snows in Early January . Hell just last year we had snow in early December , see below
I’ll take snow at any point . Perfect patterns don’t always produce so I’m not a believer in wasted patterns . I’m not punting a month and half of winter
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I’ll take snow at any point . Perfect patterns don’t always produce so I’m not a believer in wasted patterns . I’m not punting a month and half of winter
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SimeonNC
Member
I would rather take advantage of a good sun angle so late December to early Feb is optimal for me.