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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

Arcc said:
Considering that the only good snow (~3") not counting the small snow in Jan last year, the only snow worth mentioning in that time frame for me is 2/12/10. The rest of the snows happened before or after those dates. Thus waiting until that period is a valid worry.
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You didnt get any snow in late Jan 2014?
 
SimeonNC said:
I would rather take advantage of a good sun angle so late December to early Feb is optimal for me.
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Valid point . Might wanna wait till late January so you don’t have to worry about those pesky ground temps as well


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Sorry for always bringing up sun angle but it has screwed me so many times over the years. The last time I saw any meaningful snow in Georgia after Feb 15 was 25 years ago. 25 years is a long time. Yeah we have had a little here or there in early March. 2009 and 2010 come to mind but it didnt amount to more than a dusting.
 
Arcc said:
Considering that the only good snow (~3") not counting the small snow in Jan last year, the only snow worth mentioning in that time frame for me is 2/12/10. The rest of the snows happened before or after those dates. Thus waiting until that period is a valid worry.
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One year sample size in a crappy winter like last years isn’t exactly a good comparison. There’s just too much whining about December and people don’t realize, no matter what happened last year or the year before that or the year before that, December snows are rare for a reason.


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Tarheel1 said:
It’s a scary proposition to hold out till Mid January to mid February, for all your winter action, or you could end up with a torch last half of Jan and all of February, like last winter , and keep looking 15 days out for hope, and then you get a miserable March and April of cold rain. So I’d rather get it anytime, than waiting for the back load
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I’m a statistical and probabilities type of guy. Waiting for the climatological favored time period for snow in the SE isn’t waiting at all, it’s the best time for it. Getting a cold December and not getting an event, then torching Jan or Feb....and your winter is toast in no time. You don’t usually have much time in March to hope for something else.


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Jon said:
One year sample size in a crappy winter like last years isn’t exactly a good comparison. There’s just too much whining about December and people don’t realize, no matter what happened last year or the year before that or the year before that, December snows are rare for a reason.


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I just dont get why Dec snows are so rare. Dec is colder and usually has just as much precip if not more than Feb on average.
 
Its funny that despite Jan and Feb supposedly being the best time period for snow, the 2 biggest snows I have experienced were in March 1993 and Dec 2017. So i have concluded that while it may be more likely to snow in Jan and Feb, theres a better chance of getting a big dog in Dec and March, at least along the I-20 corridor in GA.
 
Storm5 said:
I don’t understand the whole waiting mentality. Snow in the south is rare enough . Who the hell cares what month it comes in ??? In the last 8 years I’ve had a true white Christmas with over 4 inches of snow on Christmas Day and many snows in Early January . Hell just last year we had snow in early December , see below



I’ll take snow at any point . Perfect patterns don’t always produce so I’m not a believer in wasted patterns . I’m not punting a month and half of winter


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We all like snow, so any time is a good time. I agree. I guess my point is to not focus on December.

For instance, since 1943 the median time frame for first to last event (for snow) is 12/29-2/15 for RDU.

Or for the Raleigh area in general, since 1886, the median is 12/26-2/20.


We usually wait until Jan anyway. Makes sense, right? Climo favored months.

Snow is rare in Birmingham, so I get our mentality. Lol.


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SoutheastRidge said:
Its funny that despite Jan and Feb supposedly being the best time period for snow, the 2 biggest snows I have experienced were in March 1993 and Dec 2017. So i have concluded that while it may be more likely to snow in Jan and Feb, theres a better chance of getting a big dog in Dec and March, at least along the I-20 corridor in GA.
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What about Jan 2011? That was a big dog for many.
 
GaStorm said:
What about Jan 2011? That was a big dog for many.
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Yeah i had about 4" from that storm. There was also a good bit of sleet here and the staying power of the snow/sleet was tremendous. A week later there was still snow/ice on the ground. I had 10" in March 1993 and 8" in Dec 2017. Im still searching for that elusive 12" storm. I was close last year because there was a foot only 10 miles away.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Its funny that despite Jan and Feb supposedly being the best time period for snow, the 2 biggest snows I have experienced were in March 1993 and Dec 2017. So i have concluded that while it may be more likely to snow in Jan and Feb, theres a better chance of getting a big dog in Dec and March, at least along the I-20 corridor in GA.
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So what area are you taking about? I’d like to look at data...Most big dogs happen in Jan-Feb for a lot of areas, but there are exceptions due to sample size limitations so I’m interested.

For me, Jan 2000 and Feb 1948 are Raleigh’s big dogs.

And as far as snow, dating back to 1943, Raleigh’s average monthly is as follows:
Dec 0.7”
Jan 2.5”
Feb 2.3”
March 1”

Greensboro, dating back to 1927:
Dec 1.2”
Jan 3.2”
Feb 2.4”
March 1.5”

This pattern is similar for much of the SE.


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Jon said:
So what area are you taking about? I’d like to look at data...Most big dogs happen in Jan-Feb for a lot of areas, but there are exceptions due to sample size limitations so I’m interested.

For me, Jan 2000 and Feb 1948 are Raleigh’s big dogs.

And as far as snow, dating back to 1943, Raleigh’s average monthly is as follows:
Dec 0.7”
Jan 2.5”
Feb 2.3”
March 1”

Greensboro, dating back to 1927:
Dec 1.2”
Jan 3.2”
Feb 2.4”
March 1.5”

This pattern is similar for much of the SE.


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I was talking about for the West GA area, specifically Carrollton.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I was talking about for the West GA area, specifically Carrollton.
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March 1942 at 8.5”
Last year comes in second at 8”
Jan 1910 comes in third at 7.5”

Jan averages 2x as much snow than Dec for Carrollton (0.2” versus 0.4” respectively)

No doubt some outliers in the record given the rarity of 2.5” or greater snows for the area, but Jan is the snowiest month on average.
 
Jon said:
March 1942 at 8.5”
Last year comes in second at 8”
Jan 1910 comes in third at 7.5”

Jan averages 2x as much snow than Dec for Carrollton (0.2” versus 0.4” respectively)

No doubt some outliers in the record given the rarity of 2.5” or greater snows for the area, but Jan is the snowiest month on average.
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And what about the 10" in March 1993 ?
 
I’ll take a Dec 02 repeat, and call it a winter!
 
I'm just hoping to see a legit early season storm again... missed the one last year to the SE(that was hideous btw)

I hate waiting til February for something that may not even happen tbh, because it hasn't the last few years...
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I just dont get why Dec snows are so rare. Dec is colder and usually has just as much precip if not more than Feb on average.
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I think it is because the upper air averages colder in Feb than Dec and I think even colder in Feb vs Jan. This causes the mean storm track to be further south in Feb vs Dec. So, I think there are more cold Miller A's in Feb than in Dec.
 
Jon said:
One year sample size in a crappy winter like last years isn’t exactly a good comparison. There’s just too much whining about December and people don’t realize, no matter what happened last year or the year before that or the year before that, December snows are rare for a reason.


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It's not just last year, I can only think of two snows in the past 20+ years that I recieved a decent snow in that time frame. The Snowjam in 2014 and Febuary 2010. However, I had 9-10" last December, 3" in December of 2000 and 3" on Christmas in 2010 and 2" of snow and ice on 1/10/2011 . And if you count the near misses you have to to to the other side of that time period like 3/01/09 and Febuary 2015 with only the storm on Febuary 11 2014 falling in that time period.

For me atleast, there are equal chances through out the winter, at least in the past 20 or so years.

SoutheastRidge said:
You didnt get any snow in late Jan 2014?
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Yeah, I forgot about the Snowjam.
 
Arcc said:
It's not just last year, I can only think of two snows in the past 20+ years that I recieved a decent snow in that time frame. The Snowjam in 2014 and Febuary 2010. However, I had 9-10" last December, 3" in December of 2000 and 3" on Christmas in 2010 and 2" of snow and ice on 1/10/2011 . And if you count the near misses you have to to to the other side of that time period like 3/01/09 and Febuary 2015 with only the storm on Febuary 11 2014 falling in that time period.

For me atleast, there are equal chances through out the winter, at least in the past 20 or so years.



Yeah, I forgot about the Snowjam.
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Forgot how many Alabama people are here. When I speak generally I’m usually talking about NC first, then maybe SC/GA areas. Are you at elevation? It’s definitely regional specific. NC in general the best chance is clearly Jan and Feb.


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metwannabe said:
Really just a gut feeling here but seeing how October flipped overnight and some of the indications heading into December..... I'll be shocked if some of us don't have a decent winter weather threat before Christmas
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Thinking the same thing here. I think December will be back and forth, but we could see a legit snow threat before the end of the month. January and February look cold and snowy based on most of the forecasts. I loved seeing Huffman going above normal snow for here.
 
I was living in a snowhole called Columbia, SC right after they got their big storm in 2010, but I moved back to Cobb county GA in time to get the foot and the inch or two we had in January to make for a pretty good year. Hopefully we get a repeat.
 
J.C. said:
I was living in a snowhole called Columbia, SC right after they got their big storm in 2010, but I moved back to Cobb county GA in time to get the foot and the inch or two we had in January to make for a pretty good year. Hopefully we get a repeat.
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Pretty good year lol. You call getting 14" in Cobb County a pretty good year ?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Pretty good year lol. You call getting 14" in Cobb County a pretty good year ?
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I would say that would be a great year. If we get 6 inches for the winter here that would be a great year. Unlike the north, which has at this point spoiled your sense of South snow, anything that is 2 or 3 inches or up is a good snowstorm in GA.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I would say that would be a great year. If we get 6 inches for the winter here that would be a great year. Unlike the north, which has at this point spoiled your sense of South snow, anything that is 2 or 3 inches or up is a good snowstorm in GA.
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I am well aware that 2-3" is a good snow for GA. My point was that he will probably never see 14" in a winter again in his lifetime unless he moves. Thats a once in a lifetime winter for Cobb County.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I would say that would be a great year. If we get 6 inches for the winter here that would be a great year. Unlike the north, which has at this point spoiled your sense of South snow, anything that is 2 or 3 inches or up is a good snowstorm in GA.
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Yeah, I scored just over 10" in December and 2 in January. That does not happen often. Only other time I had double digits was 93.
 
More good news. December to me right now has just as much of a chance to produce as any other month I guess, but just from a climatology perspective I always keep my expectations low. Looks pretty good on the Cansips if that actually would pan out...

upload_2018-11-1_12-45-16.png
 
-NAO? :) If we can lock that in I don’t care about anything else. Let’s get that STJ pumping with a big -NAO and it’s only a matter of time before we’re digging out
 
I think we’ll see several monster Miller A type Nor’easters this year. Whether we can all benefit from a few of those is the question. My gut tells me “yes”..I know we like to hype every upcoming winter and I’ve been following these boards for 10 years so I’m guilty of it too. This winter just feels like everything is lining up. Still a ways to go though. Fight the good fight.
 
SnowNiner said:
More good news. December to me right now has just as much of a chance to produce as any other month I guess, but just from a climatology perspective I always keep my expectations low. Looks pretty good on the Cansips if that actually would pan out...

View attachment 7124
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That looked amazing until I read his last line.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
-NAO? :) If we can lock that in I don’t care about anything else. Let’s get that STJ pumping with a big -NAO and it’s only a matter of time before we’re digging out
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How do you dig out from rain?:(
 
2B809650-7A9D-4718-BE27-EF93E4B1168C.png Nice post from B Rad!
 
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