Looks like the 70s had a lot of great winters in CLT. We’re due!
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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Kylo
Member
Can’t recall a winter where almost every winter forecast being so bullish. Besides NOAA’s.
Here’s another one.
Here’s another one.
Can’t wait to be tracking a blockbuster snowstorm and getting to see 4 Euro runs a day!
ForsythSnow
Moderator
As teachers always said, better to mark an answer on your test than leave it blank because you have at least some chance of being right.
Jon
Member
Speaking for Raleigh it’s Weak over Moderate. All intensities of La Ninas are king over El Niño’s for RDU snow though.
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Since everyone is putting out a winter forecast today I'll throw my thoughts out there.
December +2-4
January -1/+1
February -2-4
Winter precip as a whole above normal. The I20 corridor might be the winners of above normal on a percentage basis. I think we get a low amplitude west to east wave that favors a jackpot in this area. Given the tendency for a split flow and overrunning ice is a larger concern this winter.
In all honesty I still have quite a few questions and concerns. I believe the biggest bust potential is for December and January to be colder than what I have. Really interested to see how the north pac/pv/nao act this year.
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December +2-4
January -1/+1
February -2-4
Winter precip as a whole above normal. The I20 corridor might be the winners of above normal on a percentage basis. I think we get a low amplitude west to east wave that favors a jackpot in this area. Given the tendency for a split flow and overrunning ice is a larger concern this winter.
In all honesty I still have quite a few questions and concerns. I believe the biggest bust potential is for December and January to be colder than what I have. Really interested to see how the north pac/pv/nao act this year.
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Sounds about reasonable. If we do indeed get the colder February, precipitation will be down since bitter and dry usually go hand in hand. If I were a bit more pessimistic, I would say December will be warm into early January before a big dip in temps, but we have had that too much recently so I think it's about time for a cold Christmas and New Years.
Fountainguy97
Member
Here is our forecast from Carolina Weather.
Nothing ground breaking and it’s rather simplistic in explanation as it goes to a wide public audience, but figured you guys would like to check it out!
https://www.carolina-weather.com/winter-2018-19/2018/11/1/2018-2019-winter-forecast
Nothing ground breaking and it’s rather simplistic in explanation as it goes to a wide public audience, but figured you guys would like to check it out!
https://www.carolina-weather.com/winter-2018-19/2018/11/1/2018-2019-winter-forecast
Before I moved to Columbia, SC I had a yearly total of 12" in Dallas, GA, one county west of Cobb in 2008 or 2009, can't remember. Then of course you had the 93 superstorm, which is a once in a generation storm that dropped anywhere from 8-15" in the area. So I would say more like once in a decade type season vs once in a lifetime. Access to cold air and elevation matters, and unlike what areas east of the mountains deal with, the northwest portion of Georgia is unimpeded from the cold coming from the northeast or northwest.
But yes, it was a fabulous year.
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I’m gonna throw my 2 cents in:
RAH-6” of snow- many slop events, esp over Rain_Colds house
Roxboro-18”
CLT- 11”
GSP-7”, lots of rain cold
ATL-3”- some slop events
BHM-4”
JAX- trace
CAE- 2”
GSP temps- Dec(-2) Jan (0) Feb(-2.5) March (-4) dep from norm
RAH-6” of snow- many slop events, esp over Rain_Colds house
Roxboro-18”
CLT- 11”
GSP-7”, lots of rain cold
ATL-3”- some slop events
BHM-4”
JAX- trace
CAE- 2”
GSP temps- Dec(-2) Jan (0) Feb(-2.5) March (-4) dep from norm
This probably belongs here in winter discussions: giddy up!
I'm assuming the forecast doesn't call for above normal snowfall south of I-20 because down there anything more than a dusting is above normal?
I'll take a guess:
Nashville-15"
Chattanooga-8"
Birmingham-3"
Atlanta-3"
NW burbs-5"
Asheville-18"
Banner Elk-52"
GSP-3"
CAE-0"
CLT-5"
RAH-7"
GSO-11"
Nashville-15"
Chattanooga-8"
Birmingham-3"
Atlanta-3"
NW burbs-5"
Asheville-18"
Banner Elk-52"
GSP-3"
CAE-0"
CLT-5"
RAH-7"
GSO-11"
Early Predictions:
GSP(North of I85): 5-8” snow .5-.7” Ice
GSP(South of I85): 2-5” snow .5-1” Ice
Charlotte: 6-10” Snow .2-.5” Ice
Raleigh: 8-12” Snow .1-.2 Ice
Roxboro: 20”+ Snow
Columbia: 1-3” Snow (Some Ice)
Atlanta: 1-4” Snow .75-1” Ice
Sugar Mountain: 90” Snow
Beach Mountain: 82” Snow
GSP(North of I85): 5-8” snow .5-.7” Ice
GSP(South of I85): 2-5” snow .5-1” Ice
Charlotte: 6-10” Snow .2-.5” Ice
Raleigh: 8-12” Snow .1-.2 Ice
Roxboro: 20”+ Snow
Columbia: 1-3” Snow (Some Ice)
Atlanta: 1-4” Snow .75-1” Ice
Sugar Mountain: 90” Snow
Beach Mountain: 82” Snow
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Storm5
Member
Loving all the predictions everyone is throwing out there . Keep them coming
Today is November 1st and I said goodbye to my wife this am and told her I would see her again in March . It’s that time of year , she gets the Hallmark channel and I get cold temps , hopefully a winter storm or two and inflated clown maps !
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Today is November 1st and I said goodbye to my wife this am and told her I would see her again in March . It’s that time of year , she gets the Hallmark channel and I get cold temps , hopefully a winter storm or two and inflated clown maps !
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Seems like the consensus is that the coldest and snowiest month this winter will be February. I'm ok with that as long as we get a taste of winter in Dec and Jan too.
If we don't get snow by about midway through February, the sun angle will mess with any decent event. The best snow events in south Louisiana have always been December and January. I hope we get a chillier pattern for December than many are seeing at this point.
Brent
Member
yeah really pulling for an early threat
February snow is fun and all but then its practically spring
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Chattownsnow
Member
I feel like a broken record but this guy from PA really likes the Carolinas and southeast in general for a great winter also. I'm having a hard time finding any bad forecasts out there besides Dr. Cohen's. You can watch the video here...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah this is true from what I can tell, when La Ninas or cold neutral ENSO winters are snowy, the heaviest axis of snow is usually centered in/around Raleigh more often than it is in El Ninos.
1933-34, 1936-37, 1937-38, 1942-43, 1954-55, 1975-76, 1983-84, 1999-00, & 2001-02 are some other good examples I'm fully aware of and haven't gotten to quite yet.
Does anybody know which types of winters tend to produce the most cold air damming events? I would think it would have to be weaker el ninos right?
I’m guessing whichever one can get us a -NAO
Regarding major ZR and IP storms in ATL and nearby: Cold neutral has easily had the most. Of El Niño’s, weak for sure though one of the worst ever was 1/1973, which was during a very strong El Niño.
*Edited to add IP
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Finished building my analogs...
1) First I imported the monthly mean temps for CHA for the entire period of record from NWS-MRX nowdata page ...140 years of data!
2) Next I filtered down to years that are within 3 degrees of 2018 for each month of August, September, and October, then filtered out non-Nino years.
The result is:
1911-12
1939-40
2002-03
2014-15
The temperature pattern is remarkably consistent across this set, with below normal temps in November, January, February, and above normal in December (except 2002 which was slightly below). Overall November-February temperatures in all 4 analog years between -2.2 and -3.1 below normal (average -2.6). The other thing to note is the month-over-month distribution of below normal temps come in a "buy now / pay later" or "save now / get later" package over the course of the winter, meaning any "extra" cold in any given month is taken away from the others. 2002 had the coolest December of the 4 years but then was the least cold of the January/Februarys. 1940 had the coldest January but also had the least cold December/February, so the main question on the cold isn't if, it's when. NOV/DEC combined averages 0.4 below normal and JAN/FEB combined averages 4.8 below normal. Extreme cold is consistent as all 4 winters had at least 2 days with single-digits lows at CHA. So, needless to say, prepare the pipes and check your anti-freeze.
1) First I imported the monthly mean temps for CHA for the entire period of record from NWS-MRX nowdata page ...140 years of data!
2) Next I filtered down to years that are within 3 degrees of 2018 for each month of August, September, and October, then filtered out non-Nino years.
The result is:
1911-12
1939-40
2002-03
2014-15
The temperature pattern is remarkably consistent across this set, with below normal temps in November, January, February, and above normal in December (except 2002 which was slightly below). Overall November-February temperatures in all 4 analog years between -2.2 and -3.1 below normal (average -2.6). The other thing to note is the month-over-month distribution of below normal temps come in a "buy now / pay later" or "save now / get later" package over the course of the winter, meaning any "extra" cold in any given month is taken away from the others. 2002 had the coolest December of the 4 years but then was the least cold of the January/Februarys. 1940 had the coldest January but also had the least cold December/February, so the main question on the cold isn't if, it's when. NOV/DEC combined averages 0.4 below normal and JAN/FEB combined averages 4.8 below normal. Extreme cold is consistent as all 4 winters had at least 2 days with single-digits lows at CHA. So, needless to say, prepare the pipes and check your anti-freeze.
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SnowNiner
Member
Yeah I agree on this. To me el-nino is going to help us get the moisture here but not necessarily the cold. Ok, we have the nino, we'll probably be wet. But do we get a good suppressed flow and cold with an -NAO? That's the complete unknown right now. I've gotten snow in CLT the last 4 years or so in Super nino, la-nina, la nada, etc. So I don't think nino is be all end all (as Brad P's graphic showed). However with a constant flow of moisture to our south, I love our chances if we can just get a few decent weeks of good Atlantic blocking. Really, if we get good blocking it could be a historic snowy wonderland. If we get none, and the pacific doesn't help either, it could be a cool, raining, miserable mess of a year.
I'm waiting until the December pattern sets up to really understand what we're going to have this winter. Usually by then the winter starts to show its cards.
LovingGulfLows
Member
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I kinda want to see a classic Miller A this year as my name implies.
MichaelJ
Member
Prefacing this forecast with the caveat that "weather is going to do what weather does" I will take a stab at my prediction.
Dec.
This will be a somewhat volatile month with the first part of the month being AN and the second half BN and averaging out to about -1. The colder areas will be Tenn., N Ala. and N. Ga relative to the averages. As the wavelengths shorten in late Dec, I would not be surprised to see an accumulating snow or 2 late in the month in E Tenn. and NC Moutains . Also some areas subject to CAD events are likely to have an icing event
January
This will be our coldest month in raw numbers but slightly above Feb relative the the averages. Most areas will be 3-4 BN with the colder areas (compared to averages) being Tenn, NC, and N Ga and SC. Look for a potentially big snow maker for all areas north of Mid Ga and east of Western Tenn.
February
Coldest month compared to the averages of any winter month. There will be a lot of volatility with the Western US being so warm compared to the cold in the East. Several tracking events will be available with a few bigger snow potential storms and 3-4 CAD events especially in N Car. I would put the averages in the Va., NC, N SC N Ga and most of Tenn/Ala at 4-6 BN and areas S of that 2-4BN
March
Compared ro Jan and Feb, March will be kind of boring with temps avg 1-2BN and a couple of icing events and a snow event for Va., NC
I should also announce I am making myself available for Tarot Card and Palm Readings
Dec.
This will be a somewhat volatile month with the first part of the month being AN and the second half BN and averaging out to about -1. The colder areas will be Tenn., N Ala. and N. Ga relative to the averages. As the wavelengths shorten in late Dec, I would not be surprised to see an accumulating snow or 2 late in the month in E Tenn. and NC Moutains . Also some areas subject to CAD events are likely to have an icing event
January
This will be our coldest month in raw numbers but slightly above Feb relative the the averages. Most areas will be 3-4 BN with the colder areas (compared to averages) being Tenn, NC, and N Ga and SC. Look for a potentially big snow maker for all areas north of Mid Ga and east of Western Tenn.
February
Coldest month compared to the averages of any winter month. There will be a lot of volatility with the Western US being so warm compared to the cold in the East. Several tracking events will be available with a few bigger snow potential storms and 3-4 CAD events especially in N Car. I would put the averages in the Va., NC, N SC N Ga and most of Tenn/Ala at 4-6 BN and areas S of that 2-4BN
March
Compared ro Jan and Feb, March will be kind of boring with temps avg 1-2BN and a couple of icing events and a snow event for Va., NC
I should also announce I am making myself available for Tarot Card and Palm Readings
Jon
Member
Ignore the literal screenshot... I’m too lazy to go upstairs and grab it off my computer.
Ranking average snowfall and ENSO for RDU. Cold Neutral would probably take the cake as they beat out basically all enso states but I didn’t include it.
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Round Oak Weather
Member
If everything continues to go as forecasted and it lines up like predicted then it outta be a good one like the ones my dad talks about from when he was younger. Will everything go as predicted tho most likely not but we can only hope.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
March 2009. Don't remind me. That was the ULL of absolute boom or bust everywhere. Not even just here, but family from even further north of there in the state (straight north) told us they had 0" from that snow event and I'm pretty sure they had a Winter Storm Warning too. That's most likely what you're remembering.
Edit: To make this not completely OT (and frankly being bitter about what will be 10 years ago in March next year), if we can get a -NAO this would be the year for the Miller A almost board wide storm.
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NoSnowATL
Member
Yes 2009. Had 7in from that ULL. I was under a Heavy Snow Warning and it was AWESOME!
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Now that I look back, I believe that was the one where it snowed but nothing stuck. It only did further south and it was infuriating at the time. Don't want to see another storm like that.
One of the few times I actually jackpotted! Had 8”+ of paste!! After rain all day and thunderstorms in the morning, it went to sleet about 2-3 pm and ripped for a few hours! Had a low the next night of about 15 degrees! Talk about backloaded, think that was the only snow for me all winter!
March 2009 was top 2-3 March snows around here that I can remember. I was young during the 93’ storm of the century but I remember conditions weren’t the most favorable during March 2009 but we still scored bigly. Could have been 12-18” had things worked out just a little better. Great snowstorm
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Ok wow so why have I been pulling for an El Niño??Ignore the literal screenshot... I’m too lazy to go upstairs and grab it off my computer.
Ranking average snowfall and ENSO for RDU. Cold Neutral would probably take the cake as they beat out basically all enso states but I didn’t include it.
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cd2play
Member
Seems like the 2008-09 winter was one of those winters where some areas got "snow-holed" ... of course I was in one of them
cd2play
Member
Especially given that snow in March is basically a bonus.
Give me this setup in January and....we rain!
Look at that bomb lmao. 850’s are scorching. Got to have a damn damming high around here then maybe we can at least get some IP/ZR. I will not be fooled again this winter (yes I will). On a more current note, it looks like our first boardwide freeze will happen very soon.. thanks for tolerating my amateur fantasy model analysis
DDT Winter outlook!