• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

Storm5 said:
Lol worried about the NAO ??? We haven’t seen that b$$$$ in years and we’ve done well.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Not worried, hopeful. The -NAO to me is the difference between a year where we do ok (like the last few years) and a great one. Especially with a nino, this would be the opportunity for greatness. But yeah, if not, we can still have a decent winter.
 
SnowNiner said:
Not worried, hopeful. The -NAO to me is the difference between a year where do ok (like the last few years) and a great one. Especially with a nino, this would be the opportunity for greatness. But yeah, if not, we can still have a decent winter.
Click to expand...
FWIW and IMHO ... Overall the AO is more important for the south as a whole ...
 
C0FE22D0-2B20-4398-9315-99FDE2B335DF.png Models have it colder her than Calgary, Alberta at 216. Consider that a win until the GFS flips to red anomolies at 06z...
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Grit posted this over on the other board View attachment 7193
Click to expand...

That isn't nearly as cold as the ones issued 2 and 3 months ago, which had -20 to -40 anomalies for most active posters and Phil near -15 (I can't find last month's):
Sep release: http://southernwx.com/community/threads/winter-2018-19-discussion.410/page-9#post-105502
August release: http://southernwx.com/community/threads/winter-2018-19-discussion.410/page-2#post-103582

This newest one is -5 to -18 for most with Phil near 0/neutral. So, well under half the degree of cold anomalies for most vs the August and September runs. This isn't the trend in the model that I'd want to see if I wanted the best shot at a cold winter. It appears that the
-NAO suggested by those two real cold ones is gone/neutral on this new one.
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
Not to sound dumb. I’ve got an idea of what that shows but what exactly does that show?
Click to expand...

Positive PNA (big ridge on west coast) and trough on the east is indicative to a storm track on the east coast. Lots of nor’easters. Can’t really read into it too much as it’s a 3mo mean, I’d venture to guess a lot of that has to do with February being insane but I have yet to see the individual monthly mean images.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Jon said:
Positive PNA (big ridge on west coast) and trough on the east is indicative to a storm track on the east coast. Lots of nor’easters. Can’t really read into it too much as it’s a 3mo mean, I’d venture to guess a lot of that has to do with February being insane but I have yet to see the individual monthly mean images.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

37c1d759caee00c39c5e8cc50c196d16.jpg
b0b1d9ce1b7ae5944124f5c81e95bf00.jpg
bcfbb339b23e0124bf44317097ad0aaa.jpg




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
pcbjr said:
Biting the tongue ... :(
Click to expand...

Phil,
Good self control, my friend. Well at least neutral would be much better than warm, right? Hogtown would still have some strong cold at times. And don't forget that even a record warm winter is so much more tolerable than a record cool summer. But no, I didn't like this run especially due to the less cold trend.
 
GaWx said:
That isn't nearly as cold as the ones issued 2 and 3 months ago, which had -20 to -40 anomalies for most active posters and Phil near -15 (I can't find last month's):
Sep release: http://southernwx.com/community/threads/winter-2018-19-discussion.410/page-9#post-105502
August release: http://southernwx.com/community/threads/winter-2018-19-discussion.410/page-2#post-103582

This newest one is -5 to -18 for most with Phil near 0/neutral. So, well under half the degree of cold anomalies for most vs the August and September runs. This isn't the trend in the model that I'd want to see if I wanted the best shot at a cold winter. It appears that the
-NAO suggested by those two real cold ones is gone/neutral on this new one.
Click to expand...

This Euro seasonal went in the opposite direction of JB’s updated winter forecast from last week. Surprise surprise...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
whatalife said:
This Euro seasonal went in the opposite direction of JB’s updated winter forecast from last week. Surprise surprise...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

The best call for this year temp wise imo around here is to go for normal or maybe 1 or 2F below average in DJF, Joe Bastardi's cold bias is probably going to come to fruition, as usual. Maybe he should slosh the bathtub a little more :)
 
Webberweather53 said:
The best call for this year temp wise imo around here is to go for normal or maybe 1 or 2F below average in DJF, Joe Bastardi's cold bias is probably going to come to fruition, as usual. Maybe he should slosh the bathtub a little more :)
Click to expand...

Or maybe he should just stop altogether


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
These seasonal models tend to shift around quite a bit. I'm actually surprised it still has blue over the SE. There really isn't a lot of reason to expect wall to wall frigid temps during the winter, ever, really. What we are likely to end up with is one to two week periods of cold, followed by moderation, followed by cooling, etc., with a general tendency toward colder as winter matures. Given that this occurs concurrently with what looks to be the fairly likely scenario of an active STJ, at least normal snowfall seems very attainable. The good news is that there are no indications of a blowtorch winter. Colder and wetter than average seems to capture the greatest slice of the probability pie this year. That really is a good thing. If I were to just look at the extremes of either very cold or very warm and asked to circle the outcome that had the greater chance to verify this year, it would, without a doubt, be the colder scenario. I am happy about how things are progressing.
 
Rain Cold said:
These seasonal models tend to shift around quite a bit. I'm actually surprised it still has blue over the SE. There really isn't a lot of reason to expect wall to wall frigid temps during the winter, ever, really. What we are likely to end up with is one to two week periods of cold, followed by moderation, followed by cooling, etc., with a general tendency toward colder as winter matures. Given that this occurs concurrently with what looks to be the fairly likely scenario of an active STJ, at least normal snowfall seems very attainable. The good news is that there are no indications of a blowtorch winter. Colder and wetter than average seems to capture the greatest slice of the probability pie this year. That really is a good thing. If I were to just look at the extremes of either very cold or very warm and asked to circle the outcome that had the greater chance to verify this year, it would, without a doubt, be the colder scenario. I am happy about how things are progressing.
Click to expand...

RC,
Per this run, you and your neighbors are in about the best seat in the SE arena anomalywise.
 
Rain Cold said:
These seasonal models tend to shift around quite a bit. I'm actually surprised it still has blue over the SE. There really isn't a lot of reason to expect wall to wall frigid temps during the winter, ever, really. What we are likely to end up with is one to two week periods of cold, followed by moderation, followed by cooling, etc., with a general tendency toward colder as winter matures. Given that this occurs concurrently with what looks to be the fairly likely scenario of an active STJ, at least normal snowfall seems very attainable. The good news is that there are no indications of a blowtorch winter. Colder and wetter than average seems to capture the greatest slice of the probability pie this year. That really is a good thing. If I were to just look at the extremes of either very cold or very warm and asked to circle the outcome that had the greater chance to verify this year, it would, without a doubt, be the colder scenario. I am happy about how things are progressing.
Click to expand...

I think shots of cold, followed by moderation, and repeat, with no real long stretches of above normal temps is the best we can ask for. I actually don't like long stretches of frigid temps anyway. We rarely get anything out of that but cold and dry. Up and down from cold to normal is really the best way to get chances of winter storms here.
 
GaWx said:
Phil,
Good self control, my friend. Well at least neutral would be much better than warm, right? Hogtown would still have some strong cold at times. And don't forget that even a record warm winter is so much more tolerable than a record cool summer. But no, I didn't like this run especially due to the less cold trend.
Click to expand...
Larry,
Thankfully for anyone who reads here, I know my limitations and of course there's self control ... ergo, bit the tongue ... LOL
But in all seriousness and related to something I raised earlier today (in part thanks to info you've shared with me over time), the one teleconnection that seemingly is being ignored (or at least not discussed) is the AO ... ;)
I do promise self control when Lake City gets 6" of white and it's 40º and raining here ... really LOL
Best!
Phil
 
pcbjr said:
FWIW and IMHO ... Overall the AO is more important for the south as a whole ...
Click to expand...
Yep. When the AO takes a good dip the arctic air flows far to the south especially with a good snowpack!
 
Kylo said:
Hard to disappointed in the latest Euro monthlies, they still look pretty good.

We aren't buying JB's snowfall forecast. He jackpots the south for once.

View attachment 7200
Click to expand...

He is not the only one, though. A lot of mets are calling for above normal snowfall here, including DT and Huffman.
 
Larry Cosgrove and Brad P. don't seem all that bullish.
 
Rain Cold said:
Larry Cosgrove and Brad P. don't seem all that bullish.
Click to expand...

What did LC say? -- reminds me of GF, super conservative until the flakes are actually flying. Don't blame them. Last time GF went out on a limb he had to jump in fountain. I think that was 2007, weak nino.
 
Has Matthew East posted anything about his winter thoughts?
 
Kylo said:
What did LC say? -- reminds me of GF, super conservative until the flakes are actually flying. Don't blame them. Last time GF went out on a limb he had to jump in fountain. I think that was 2007, weak nino.
Click to expand...
Generally, LC has December the torch to remember, January normal to slightly above, February is much below, and March is slightly below for the upper SE. Snowfall looks to be normal for the north half of NC/TN north. Overall, it's basically a low confidence forecast. It seems to average out to around a normal to slightly below normal temp pattern for the SE (northern parts are generally slightly cooler relative to normal than southern areas), with snowfall near or below normal.
 
Kylo said:
Hard to disappointed in the latest Euro monthlies, they still look pretty good.

We aren't buying JB's snowfall forecast. He jackpots the south for once.

View attachment 7200
Click to expand...

Omgd I’ve never been in his jackpot . Kiss of death . I’ll be wearing shorts with temps in the 70s on Valentine’s Day .




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Rain Cold said:
Anybody concerned abou the rapidly rising QBO screwing everything up?
Click to expand...
Well, to be honest, no I am not concerned. This is a very low solar year and a central/west based El-Nino. There is a warm pool in the gulf of Alaska as well as an Aleution low. It will take a lot of QBO forcing to counteract that.
 
Kylo said:
Hard to disappointed in the latest Euro monthlies, they still look pretty good.

We aren't buying JB's snowfall forecast. He jackpots the south for once.

View attachment 7200
Click to expand...
This is absolutely attainable with what the Euro just spit out. All winter months are looking normal/BN, temperature wise, at worst. One decent snowstorm and many of us are already at 100+% of our average snowfall. Temps just need to cooperate and it’s looking like they will
 

Attachments

  • B1D1738F-686D-429B-B78A-3478F16809EA.png
    B1D1738F-686D-429B-B78A-3478F16809EA.png
    180.1 KB · Views: 43
Last edited:
Storm5 said:
Omgd I’ve never been in his jackpot . Kiss of death . I’ll be wearing shorts with temps in the 70s on Valentine’s Day .




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Then it will be in the teens and sleeting/snowing on February 16 :)
 
SimeonNC said:
Wall to wall bone-chilling cold isn't needed for a good winter snow wise. In fact with an El Nino pattern we could end up above average in temps and still be above average in snowfall.

Sent from my Z983 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I was fortunate to be in an area that cashed in during the super nino winter of 2016. The Carolina's (I think) cashed in during 2002
 
Storm5 said:
Kinda crazy to have them both so gung-ho well at least DT .

I can’t believe I’m officially in the bathtub with JB . Let the water slosh !!!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
That better be one big as tub! For all three of y’all! Save room for BRad, he may flop!:D
 
Storm5 said:
Kinda crazy to have them both so gung-ho well at least DT .

I can’t believe I’m officially in the bathtub with JB . Let the water slosh !!!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Might as well make it a bubble bath (the snow being the bubble part that is)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top