Might be a little nippy for the Trick or Treaters.Thanks!
Great info.
Analogues are still fun to look at though ... for example and just for kicks ...
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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Lots of blue on that map!Thanks!
Great info.
Analogues are still fun to look at though ... for example and just for kicks ...
View attachment 7026
Fountainguy97
Member
Thanks!
Great info.
Analogues are still fun to look at though ... for example and just for kicks ...
Oh analogs are extremely useful. I was just saying we are close enough now to look at current pattern evolutions. Analogs are great for long range peeking! Now we use real time patterns to verify those analogs
pcbjr
Member
I was just joshing with you and springboarding just to post that analogue map in some meaningful context (which you so aptly provided).
Round Oak Weather
Member
We got right at an inch but then we torched in February. I’m talking about an across the board good winter. Last year it was good but it went from good in December to good in January and then February which is when we tend to get the biggest snows in my area we torched.
Folks, I'm not asking for a forecast here. It's way too far out, I get it. That said, I've got reservations atop Mt Leconte for the night of of October 30-31. Are we looking at a likely pattern change to winter and/or stormy during that time frame? I suck at looking at long range stuff.
tennessee storm
Member
Strong signal for a potent storm in the east around end this month. ...
cd2play
Member
What kind?
SimeonNC
Member
Well certainly not a winter storm since its late October lol.
Get ready!! Buckle up!!BHS1975
Member
Torch is an understatement, more like thermonuclear.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
A December 2002 would be a great start to a fabulous winter!
A lot of hype going into this winter. Hopefully this isn’t another one of those winters where you can throw anal-logs out the window. We need them to verify for a change! Last years niña was strange. I don’t think analogs were helpful until we torched in february
Honestly though, isn't there a lot of hype going into every winter ?
I can't remember the last winter that wasn't hyped during autumn in some way to some extent (it wouldn't be normal on a wx bb if it weren't), but the hype for this one is in overdrive due I think largely to the mainly chilly non-Pioneer seasonal models and it being El Nino. I must warn you that Radiant, a reputable pro met company, has only F of DJF as a colder than normal month in the SE (1-2 colder) as they have both D and J at +1 to +2 thus leading to a 0 to +1 DJF vs the 30 year normal. With the Nino apparently looking stronger than it earlier looked and with the Modoki aspect less certain and with us being in a warming world, we need to be prepared for anything so as to prevent disappointment. Nevertheless, I remain cautiously optimistic as the UKMET interestingly enough made DJF colder (-1 to -2) when it strengthened the Nino from weak/mod borderline to mod/strong borderline. Remember that getting as cold as -1 to -2 vs the 30 year normal is now a pretty big deal and would be sweet to me. Keep in mind that both 2009-10 and 1957-8 were cold strong Nino winters.
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tractor girl
Member
From Radiant:
1. "North Atlantic Blocking Or Not"
"The winter state of the Arctic pattern can be a challenge at this lead time, but there are a few signals worth consideration for this year. The first is Atlantic sea surface temperatures, which include a central warm pool, cold pool to the south of Greenland and a warm Norwegian Sea. If this regime persists into winter, its correlation to the warm +NAO is significant at 0.76. This winter also features a solar minimum, a factor contributing to the blocking of the 2009-10 season as a recent example. While the correlation to the colder –NAO is significant in the past 30 years (0.26), its longer range correlation to the colder –NAO is notably less significant (0.05)."
2. "Pacific Thoughts"
"Given the current status and historical trends, we favor a neutral to weak El Niño this winter, with the outside chance El Niño reaches moderate strength based on some models. This limits the risk for the warmer response from a strong El Niño, like observed most recently in the 2015-16 season. Among historical weak El Niño's are four of the top-10 coldest winters on record and only four of 12 events warmer than normal. On its own, it presents a cold risk to the forecast. This winter should differ from a typical El Niño, however, as waters in the west-ern Pacific are also anomalously warm. This combination of developing El Niño and western Pacific warmth are not common together, and only three analogs back to 1950 were found with this commonality. Sample size is not significant, but it is notable that each analog featured similar results with a warm Decem-ber and cold February pattern. The forecast aligns with this evolution."
I should note that this forecast was put together back in August.
1. "North Atlantic Blocking Or Not"
"The winter state of the Arctic pattern can be a challenge at this lead time, but there are a few signals worth consideration for this year. The first is Atlantic sea surface temperatures, which include a central warm pool, cold pool to the south of Greenland and a warm Norwegian Sea. If this regime persists into winter, its correlation to the warm +NAO is significant at 0.76. This winter also features a solar minimum, a factor contributing to the blocking of the 2009-10 season as a recent example. While the correlation to the colder –NAO is significant in the past 30 years (0.26), its longer range correlation to the colder –NAO is notably less significant (0.05)."
2. "Pacific Thoughts"
"Given the current status and historical trends, we favor a neutral to weak El Niño this winter, with the outside chance El Niño reaches moderate strength based on some models. This limits the risk for the warmer response from a strong El Niño, like observed most recently in the 2015-16 season. Among historical weak El Niño's are four of the top-10 coldest winters on record and only four of 12 events warmer than normal. On its own, it presents a cold risk to the forecast. This winter should differ from a typical El Niño, however, as waters in the west-ern Pacific are also anomalously warm. This combination of developing El Niño and western Pacific warmth are not common together, and only three analogs back to 1950 were found with this commonality. Sample size is not significant, but it is notable that each analog featured similar results with a warm Decem-ber and cold February pattern. The forecast aligns with this evolution."
I should note that this forecast was put together back in August.
cd2play
Member
I kind of had a hunch that he was talking about severe weather, especially since the post was from Mr. Tornado himself. LOL
cd2play
Member
I prefer to flush anal-logs down the toilet
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Hurricane Michael came through and it's like a switch was thrown. Really feels like fall now, and looks like this winter is going to be rocking. WxSouth is really jumping on the winter hype train, too. This is his latest Facebook post.
One of several cold fronts will come through the Southeast Fri/Sat, and bring snow showers to the mountains of WV, VA and nw NC . Frost coming to KY, VA and maybe lower elevations of TN, NC as well . Then later next week, a "Split flow" develops in the Pacific and that will eventually lead to an interesting pre-Halloween storm in the central and eastern States, with a Huge dump of early Winter type of Air coming into the country. Snow cover will advance rapidly in Canada all the while. Good bye to the Southeast ridge--hopefully until next Spring, we shall see. The long range update was sent to premium subs , with hints of the Winter pattern, which look a little different than the last few Winters in the nation. We may have super amplified patterns, with "Split flow" often, which means a warm North Pole and northern Canada, but a very cold and stormy southern United States. Last few years we've had some bouts of Winter weather, but not widespread overrunning Winter weather events, and if my hunch is correct on the the 5H patterns being portrayed, we'll have quite a few of the Winter storms coming up, earlier than "normal" this time, similar to 2002 and 2009 El Nino events. Gardeners and Farmers need to prep the next few weeks for a very active few months coming up.. Warm and dry just doesn't top the list, unlike last few seasons..In fact, some remarkable Winter events are more than likely in the big "D" and heading eastbound. But we do have some decent Fall weather on tap as well.
One of several cold fronts will come through the Southeast Fri/Sat, and bring snow showers to the mountains of WV, VA and nw NC . Frost coming to KY, VA and maybe lower elevations of TN, NC as well . Then later next week, a "Split flow" develops in the Pacific and that will eventually lead to an interesting pre-Halloween storm in the central and eastern States, with a Huge dump of early Winter type of Air coming into the country. Snow cover will advance rapidly in Canada all the while. Good bye to the Southeast ridge--hopefully until next Spring, we shall see. The long range update was sent to premium subs , with hints of the Winter pattern, which look a little different than the last few Winters in the nation. We may have super amplified patterns, with "Split flow" often, which means a warm North Pole and northern Canada, but a very cold and stormy southern United States. Last few years we've had some bouts of Winter weather, but not widespread overrunning Winter weather events, and if my hunch is correct on the the 5H patterns being portrayed, we'll have quite a few of the Winter storms coming up, earlier than "normal" this time, similar to 2002 and 2009 El Nino events. Gardeners and Farmers need to prep the next few weeks for a very active few months coming up.. Warm and dry just doesn't top the list, unlike last few seasons..In fact, some remarkable Winter events are more than likely in the big "D" and heading eastbound. But we do have some decent Fall weather on tap as well.