• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

More recently I remember 2009/10 was painful for RDU, still a good winter on the average, but witnessed storm after storm from December on nailing Roxboro and places North repeatedly.
 
There was also a Major Storm for parts of Northwest MS and Memphis before Christmas that year. I believe I found a report a couple days ago that stated there was still 10 inches of snow on the ground for Memphis, Christmas Day.

Yes, Memphis received 14" of snow on December 23,1963 and also recorded a record low of -13 on December 24, 1963. This was the 1st of two Winter storms that month; the next one was further South-East covering Alabama and Middle Tennessee.

Here is a video of the December 23, 1963 snow in Memphis.

 
More recently I remember 2009/10 was painful for RDU, still a good winter on the average, but witnessed storm after storm from December on nailing Roxboro and places North repeatedly.
And southeast of us too.

accum.20100212.gif
 
Here is the new Pioneer Model forecast which greatly resembles the EPS

Screen_Shot_2018_11_08_at_8_15_58_AM.png

I believe the pioneer “model” aka a whole bunch of years thrown into a climate composite and called a model, hasn’t done well since they started it. It’s always too cold (imagine that)

Last year’s:
ad5f491ab14652d31ec3d568f7c15657.jpg


Reality:
f1c8e94da37dbe5aa62016b340fd24bc.jpg




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I believe the pioneer “model” aka a whole bunch of years thrown into a climate composite and called a model, hasn’t done well since they started it. It’s always too cold (imagine that)

Last year’s:
ad5f491ab14652d31ec3d568f7c15657.jpg


Reality:
f1c8e94da37dbe5aa62016b340fd24bc.jpg




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Looks more like a general idea of temperature differences that should be reduced in severity. It's only existed a few years right? Any other years we can compare?
 
I believe the pioneer “model” aka a whole bunch of years thrown into a climate composite and called a model, hasn’t done well since they started it. It’s always too cold (imagine that)

Last year’s:
ad5f491ab14652d31ec3d568f7c15657.jpg


Reality:
f1c8e94da37dbe5aa62016b340fd24bc.jpg




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

AKA, weenie analog model. Going to go ahead and not expect that 500 pattern either.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jon
Looks more like a general idea of temperature differences that should be reduced in severity. It's only existed a few years right? Any other years we can compare?

I wouldn’t say busting 1.5-2C widespread for the entire US is a general idea, but I guess it could have busted extremely warm or something so I get it.

It is new. I think there’s a couple more years you could compare (at least one more)...the problem is obvious. The big red blob under Greenland that never happened in reality. The “pioneer model” has a bunch of years with a -NAO that never happened.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I love how due we are here in the upstate. I feel something brewing this year
Another example Winter 2016-17

Pioneer Model
2fe78249a6ac2ac649eca743a3037f71.jpg


Reality
38a297f8d07150d6a11bb848887fb02f.jpg


This isn’t pioneer but it’s still Bastardi
a895da69d69474af6170fe2cc534b1fa.jpg

354327608a0e2f9ff5b54aa5630b61c2.jpg



Lesson: JB has a cold bias. Lol
JB said the Pioneer model does better with cold winters. Idk. We shall see
 
I love how due we are here in the upstate. I feel something brewing this year

JB said the Pioneer model does better with cold winters. Idk. We shall see

They’re basically saying “our model works when winter is cold because we always forecast cold winters”


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I don’t know what the hell happened in December of 1963 . But from what Webber and others have posted , if J.B. nails this I will 100 percent slosh in the Tub with him because the general theme from most is December will be above normal temp wise

its 1 of only 3 winters there's been more than a foot of snow here(looks like it was January 1964 here actually)

All in :p
 
Looks like the pioneer model has some algorithms from the DGEX!
 
I really want to see where we are in reality around Thanksgiving and what the models are spitting out for early December. The ridging across the north Pacific into Alaska and the arctic circle along with the Scandinavian ridge has me intrigued.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
Back
Top