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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

The ongoing El Nino and subseasonal tropical forcing shift are going to seriously juice up the subtropical jet later this month into early December, thus it makes sense we'd see NWP models showing a parade of storms crashing into California by week 2-3.

You can see the Kelvin Wave and MJO beginning to move into the Pacific already (in blue/purple shading), enhanced convection underneath the active phases of these phenomena will deposit excess angular momentum into what's already a pretty decent southern stream, thus leading to enhanced storminess in southern California & likely the rest of the southern tier as we get towards Thanksgiving and beyond.
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Storm5 said:
That’s an all out torch for December


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If the pattern shown on the models for late November sets the tone for December, I think that call busts pretty bad. It's a big if, but calling for 4 degrees warmer seems like a real stretch to me, considering this and seasonal modeling.

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VP anomalys sure don't look like nino? Would expect the -vp more pronounced around the dateline.

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Euro looks to be setting up a threat from both directions at 240hrs. Verbatim that could be a potent severe weather outbreak, then just after the timeframe you have a s/w dropping into the PAC NW with the Alutian low strengthening and starting to pump the western ridge.
 
Storm5 said:
Lmao

You keep looking , it’s been a while since we’ve seen something so beautiful . We won’t judge you . In fact I’m gonna look tonight while sloshing in the tub !


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Yep, If that happens as modeled, we all will be looking at a good start to winter. Nothing like that to get you in the mood for Christmas. Now, let's get some white on the ground.
 
Storm5 said:
Lmao

You keep looking , it’s been a while since we’ve seen something so beautiful . We won’t judge you . In fact I’m gonna look tonight while sloshing in the tub !


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Sloshin in the boys room
 
To elaborate slightly more on an earlier tweet, tne thing to note here is the Scandinavian high at least in the EPS is undergoing more rapid retrogression towards Greenland in the extended range, which says a lot about the amplitude of the ridge in the model even when you consider how spread increases w/ time in an ensemble suite. Larger/stronger Rossby Waves undergo more planetary vorticity advection, thus retrograde more vehemently while at the same time, the background flow might be turning more easterly (if the amplitude of the high doesn't change) which is also more favorable for blocking. Point being, in either case, although the look on the EPS seems fantastic in the longer range (& rightfully so), what I'm arguing is that we're actually trending towards an even better pattern!

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Webberweather53 said:
To elaborate slightly more on an earlier tweet, tne thing to note here is the Scandinavian high at least in the EPS is undergoing more rapid retrogression towards Greenland in the extended range, which says a lot about the amplitude of the ridge in the model even when you consider how spread increases w/ time in an ensemble suite. Larger/stronger Rossby Waves undergo more planetary vorticity advection, thus retrograde more vehemently while at the same time, the background flow might be turning more easterly (if the amplitude of the high doesn't change) which is also more favorable for blocking. Point being, in either case, although the look on the EPS seems fantastic in the longer range (& rightfully so), what I'm arguing is that we're actually trending towards an even better pattern!

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What was the pattern that lead up to the storm last year? If this upcoming pattern is similar or better than the one last year then we might end up seeing a winter storm.
 
Storm5 said:
If we were a month down the line I’d be even more excited !!! But looking at the temperature anomalies it does not reveal that cold of an airmass . Still very exciting though


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Yep. We need a little more help from the Pacific side to more efficiently transport cold into the area. It's good to see that the atmosphere can create a -NAO, though. Hopefully, we'll see that periodically throughout the winter.
 
Storm5 said:
If we were a month down the line I’d be even more excited !!! But looking at the temperature anomalies it does not reveal that cold of an airmass . Still very exciting though


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Haven't you learned anything over the years? The models can't see the cold......c'mon man. ;)
 
SD said:
I really want to see where we are in reality around Thanksgiving and what the models are spitting out for early December. The ridging across the north Pacific into Alaska and the arctic circle along with the Scandinavian ridge has me intrigued.

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You sniffed that one out hound-dog....
 
SimeonNC said:
We have a -EPO/-NAO/-AO in the LR and an active STJ. I feel pretty good about the next two-four weeks.
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I’m actually fairly confident if we get the blocking as modeled, that we might have a chance during the last week of November into December. Of course it’s probably going to be a frustrating system if it materializes as temps will be borderline....but it just depends.

The fact that we’re talking storm chances before December is crazy. Hold on!


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Rain Cold said:
Yep. We need a little more help from the Pacific side to more efficiently transport cold into the area. It's good to see that the atmosphere can create a -NAO, though. Hopefully, we'll see that periodically throughout the winter.
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Lol, that is pretty ironic. The last 8 years we've always said we need more help from the Atlantic. We finally look like we get it, now we're looking at the pacific! One ocean is always trying to mess with us... That long range EPS that Webb posted would do the trick I think....the west coast ridge seems like it's in the right spot for a nice cold +pna/-epo.

I still think we're way early though anyway. We need to move to the second half of December for myb to get in the game.
 
SnowNiner said:
Lol, that is pretty ironic. The last 8 years we've always said we need more help from the Atlantic. We finally look like we get it, now we're looking at the pacific! One ocean is always trying to mess with us... That long range EPS that Webb posted would do the trick I think....the west coast ridge seems like it's in the right spot for a nice cold +pna/-epo.

I still think we're way early though anyway. We need to move to the second half of December for myb to get in the game.
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Eh, like Jon said I think we might have a chance late November/Early December. It probably won't be a Carolina Crusher but we still have a chance.
 
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