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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

GeorgiaGirl said:
I found a link that classified El Nino years. The years fresh in memory for me that worked out well for the southeast in general are 09/10 and 14/15 (not all areas of the southeast, but just in general). 09/10 was moderate and 14/15 was weak. Looking a little more at this webpage, a few other years pop out for me in memory based off light research I've done on memorable winter storms for the SE, but they were all strong Ninos.

(Although I'm now wondering if this link is actually correct because it also classifies 16/17 as a La Nina. Wasn't that year a strong El Nino? The 17/18 winter season was a weak La Nina.)
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Use this website it’s by far the most accurate measure of ENSO by year...
https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html


9-10 was strong
14-15 was weak
16-17 was neutral (not on the list so most likely neutral, I doubt he left a date out but you can double check the EONI numbers)
17-18 was weak

Image via Webber
4b77eccf2799628066553c5300f90b17.png



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metwannabe said:
Yep playing it safe as always.... throw out an El Ninoish looking map and call it a day.
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Political infl
NCSNOW said:
Wax the sleds and get ready. This guy/outfit does a great job of forecasting for our mtns. Great read and supporting argument for his ideas. Did a stellar job last year.

http://booneweather.com/public/Fear...Uduhc2kHBHJ8d6Jt5fMboahcNbDQfXnKiM4AZPuVMYzxQ
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looks like he upped totals this year. 100” at Sugar Mtn would be solid
 
New EURO weeklies show a cold 46 day total in the SE. However the first week of December it turns warm as the SE ridge makes a strong push back on the cold and the length of time it stays here is unknown because that is when the weeklies stop
 
MichaelJ said:
New EURO weeklies show a cold 46 day total in the SE. However the first week of December it turns warm as the SE ridge makes a strong push back on the cold and the length of time it stays here is unknown because that is when the weeklies stop
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A December thaw is fine with me as long a it turn back in January and February. Every forecast I’ve seen has January and February as the months we need to watch.
 
Snowfall totals for the past 10 years combined below...for this year I'm gonna go with 20-25% of the totals south of I-40, and 15-20% I-40 north.

Memphis 35"
Chattanooga 42"
Nashville 47"
Knoxville 60"
Tri-Cities 119"

Jackson 14"
Meridian 15"
Tupelo 21"

Birmingham 18"
Huntsville 35"

Augusta 15"
Atlanta 27"

Columbia 18"
Greenville 43"

Charlotte 41"
Raleigh 52"
Greensboro 91"
Asheville 125"
 
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FC0DD6B7-668A-48DD-8919-0F604C39C8D3.png Winter is toast, IF this monster East Coast October storm happens, book it!
 
Jon said:
If we get a moderate El Nino December will likely be a bit boring.

fffeeeb0a5b4264d5c3586f292188c7f.png

6b48ed55e963a03d71af4b1e59ebc243.jpg


A weak El nino favors this pattern...
d6ca42ee8b3fefccfe2f346775fac703.png

c7ce997399ff9bdfd643ed26fb8d43df.jpg



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Jon, do you think strong weak to borderline mod would be the best outlook to go with? Even that would favor a fun SE this Winter
 
accu35 said:
Jon, do you think strong weak to borderline mod would be the best outlook to go with? Even that would favor a fun SE this Winter
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Yeah.

I’d be fine with either, but I prefer weak because:
1) Weak Ninos average more snow for RDU than moderate, although it’s only 0.26” more seasonally, so not a huge deal considering strong + super la Nina’s average 2.61” more for RDU than Weak Niños...which when you’re taking averages that IS a big deal.
2) it’s colder, as shown on that composite anomaly. This can help with soil temperatures for early Jan events if they happen. (Gonna wave the soil temp argument for later, but it’s a valid discussion if there’s early season torching versus a mid season, short lived thaw)

Either way, I don’t expect December snows for the SE (these are rare in general, and no one should get bummed if we have to wait until 2019 for a snow outside of the mountains, that’s normal.)



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Uh oh,back-loaded winter talk already? Sounds good :weenie:
 
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Jon said:
Yeah.

I’d be fine with either, but I prefer weak because:
1) Weak Ninos average more snow for RDU than moderate, although it’s only 0.26” more seasonally, so not a huge deal considering strong + super la Nina’s average 2.61” more for RDU than Weak Niños...which when you’re taking averages that IS a big deal.
2) it’s colder, as shown on that composite anomaly. This can help with soil temperatures for early Jan events if they happen. (Gonna wave the soil temp argument for later, but it’s a valid discussion if there’s early season torching versus a mid season, short lived thaw)

Either way, I don’t expect December snows for the SE (these are rare in general, and no one should get bummed if we have to wait until 2019 for a snow outside of the mountains, that’s normal.)



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I agree, and any snows in Dec, would be a bonus like last year. I'm down with a back-loaded.
 
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Jon said:
Yeah.

I’d be fine with either, but I prefer weak because:
1) Weak Ninos average more snow for RDU than moderate, although it’s only 0.26” more seasonally, so not a huge deal considering strong + super la Nina’s average 2.61” more for RDU than Weak Niños...which when you’re taking averages that IS a big deal.
2) it’s colder, as shown on that composite anomaly. This can help with soil temperatures for early Jan events if they happen. (Gonna wave the soil temp argument for later, but it’s a valid discussion if there’s early season torching versus a mid season, short lived thaw)

Either way, I don’t expect December snows for the SE (these are rare in general, and no one should get bummed if we have to wait until 2019 for a snow outside of the mountains, that’s normal.)



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Oddly enough, when you look across all NINO Decembers in the entire observational record, the biggest December El Nino snow events east of the mountains have actually come during strong-super El Ninos when the large-scale pattern is generally even warmer & more boring than moderate El Ninos. There are some great examples of this in strong NINOs like 1896-97, 1930-31, 1997-98, & 2009-10. In terms of both breadth & magnitude of the snowfall, these are the biggest December NINO winter storms I'm aware of (obviously Dec 4 2002 is left out unfortunately)

December 2-3 1896 NC Snowmap.png
December 15-18 1930 NC Snowmap.png
December 18-19 2009 NC Snowmap.jpg

December 29-31 1997 Snowmap NC.png
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Oddly enough, when you look across all NINO Decembers in the entire observational record, the biggest December El Nino snow events east of the mountains have actually come during strong-super El Ninos when the large-scale pattern is generally even warmer & more boring than moderate El Ninos. There are some great examples of this in strong NINOs like 1896-97, 1930-31, 1997-98, & 2009-10. In terms of both breadth & magnitude of the snowfall, these are the biggest December NINO winter storms I'm aware of (obviously Dec 4 2002 is left out unfortunately)

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Eric, in regards to the signature on your graphic images; are you still an undergraduate or are you able to declare yourself an NCSU Graduate yet? I remember reading you graduated recently? Unless I am mistaken.
 
vtrap90 said:
Eric, in regards to the signature on your graphic images; are you still an undergraduate or are you able to declare yourself an NCSU Graduate yet? I remember reading you graduated recently? Unless I am mistaken.
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I made some of those maps when I was an undergrad at NC State, I have changed the signature to UNCC Grad Student on every map I've made since graduating.
 
That storm around hr114 would be MONEY if we had record cold and a little snowpack to our north. One day
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
That storm around hr114 would be MONEY if we had record cold and a little snowpack to our north. One day
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Man, there aint no storm at hr 114 that is ever money around these parts! But I'm with you; I wish we had/hope we have that look showing up in winter.
 
4A3CF29A-14EB-40E1-BD63-328D9CC76DC0.png The great one has spoken! Jimmy, wax up those sleds, stack the firewood!
 
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