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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

Jon said:
I’m actually fairly confident if we get the blocking as modeled, that we might have a chance during the last week of November into December. Of course it’s probably going to be a frustrating system if it materializes as temps will be borderline....but it just depends.

The fact that we’re talking storm chances before December is crazy. Hold on!


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Yeah, the cold will very likely be marginal. If we can go straight Miller A, some of us east of the Apps might have a shot at a little backside snow or something. Very much a bonus for this time of year.
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah, the cold will very likely be marginal. If we can go straight Miller A, some of us east of the Apps might have a shot at a little backside snow or something. Very much a bonus for this time of year.
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Straight Miller A . This dirty talk in November needs to be kept to a minimum


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For Raleigh the average temps on Dec 1 is same as Feb 28th and then of course we get progressively colder. Must be other factors on why mid-Feb is so much more snowy for us than mid-Dec when avg temps are relatively the same.

We have had a few winter storms first week of December (2000, 2002, 2010, 2017).

Screen Shot 2018-11-14 at 11.18.24 AM.png
 
Kylo said:
For Raleigh the average temps on Dec 1 is same as Feb 28th and then of course we get progressively colder. Must be other factors on why mid-Feb is so much more snowy for us than mid-Dec when avg temps are relatively the same.

We have had a few winter storms first week of December (2000, 2002, 2010, 2017).

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My guess is that the cryosphere has had more time to charge by Feb as well as the jet wavelength being more favorable. That is a wag, so it could be completely wrong.
 
Kylo said:
For Raleigh the average temps on Dec 1 is same as Feb 28th and then of course we get progressively colder. Must be other factors on why mid-Feb is so much more snowy for us than mid-Dec when avg temps are relatively the same.

We have had a few winter storms first week of December (2000, 2002, 2010, 2017).

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That composite lines up with most N.C. snow composites and snowy year composites. It tells us one thing we usually need:

Blocking
 
Storm5 said:
If we were a month down the line I’d be even more excited !!! But looking at the temperature anomalies it does not reveal that cold of an airmass . Still very exciting though


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Probably the time when we get good blocking and a favorable western ridge, we get all the cold air pinched off in Siberia as Pacific air kills Miller A after Miller A.
 
Kylo said:
Pacific is improving too. NPac low getting going.

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LR but obvious here...you can see the west coast trough getting beaten down and that LP coming east over the pacific. Trends should continue next few days.


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I've been on the weather boards since 2010 and started following weather models around the same time. Although imperfect (shift the greenland block and west coast ridge a bit more west) I've never seen such a favorable set up on the models. -NAO/+PNA/Split flow/active southern stream/Aleutian low/low heights off the east coast. Whether it comes to fruition or not is another question, but still. It's hard not to feel good about the winter right now.

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Jon said:
Euro seasonal snowfall anomaly for Feb has some love for the SE.

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Jon,
Not gonna go PBP with you like the old American days, but you just keep this up, please ... we're getting close ... LOL ... ;)
Best!
Phil
 
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Dear December, would you hurry up and get here already? Me and my dreamy drooly weather weenies are waiting patiently for your month to arrive. So any speed up would be greatly appreciated, thanks in advance .
 
accu35 said:
Dear December, would you hurry up and get here already? Me and my dreamy drooly weather weenies are waiting patiently for your month to arrive. So any speed up would be greatly appreciated, thanks in advance .
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Sadly, we're only each given a finite number of days on this Earth; so pardon the disagreement ... enjoy each and every minute without any "hurry up" ... Just sayin' ... :cool:

... but I get your drift (pun intended) ... :eek:
 
pcbjr said:
Sadly, we're only each given a finite number of days on this Earth; so pardon the disagreement ... enjoy each and every minute without any "hurry up" ... Just sayin' ... :cool:

... but I get your drift (pun intended) ... :eek:
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Lol, I'm just having little fun
 
Even against other winter storms I've looked at that struck NC in late Nov/early Dec (going all the way back to the late 1800s), this pattern is arguably one of if not the best looking one I've ever seen at this time of the winter season (late Nov-early December) given what's currently modeled. Obviously that far from guarantees anything around here but wow, even if we don't continue trending even more favorably in the extended I'd give this at least an 8 or 9 out of 10.
The big 3 you look for in a general sense when trying to sniff out a storm are all there on NWP and increasing in magnitude even as we get closer, just don't know when or if there will be a storm. If nothing happens so be it, the fact we have arguably a jackpot look on the planetary-scale right off the bat is encouraging to see & a nice change of pace from the last several years. The biggest enemy is probably climatology in this case but we're entering our legitimate temporal window for big dogs in the SE US
Huge -NAO (check)
North Pacific/Western North America blocking (check)
Strong subtropical jet (check)
storm (?)
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Even against other winter storms I've looked at that struck NC in late Nov/early Dec (going all the way back to the late 1800s), this pattern is arguably one of if not the best looking one I've ever seen at this time of the winter season (late Nov-early December) given what's currently modeled. Obviously that far from guarantees anything around here but wow, even if we don't continue trending even more favorably in the extended I'd give this at least an 8 or 9 out of 10.
The big 3 you look for in a general sense when trying to sniff out a storm are all there on NWP and increasing in magnitude even as we get closer, just don't know when or if there will be a storm. If nothing happens so be it, the fact we have arguably a jackpot look on the planetary-scale right off the bat is encouraging to see & a nice change of pace from the last several years. The biggest enemy is probably climatology in this case but we're entering our legitimate temporal window for big dogs in the SE US
Huge -NAO (check)
North Pacific/Western North America blocking (check)
Strong subtropical jet (check)
storm (?)
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If they affect more of the SE than just NC then bring them on!
 
Good lord 2.0...
These are the kind of patterns you only hope to dream to see in real life if you're a snow weenie. I just hope it holds thru at least the first week or two of December (the longer the better obviously).

Historically, non-La Nina years with big Scandinavian highs/-NAOs in November generally hold a favorable configuration in December & January.

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Webberweather53 said:
Good lord 2.0...
These are the kind of patterns you only hope to dream to see in real life if you're a snow weenie. I just hope it holds thru at least the first week or two of December (the longer the better obviously).

Historically, non-La Nina years with big Scandinavian highs/-NAOs in November generally hold a favorable configuration in December & January.

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I might faint......
 
Webberweather53 said:
Good lord 2.0...
These are the kind of patterns you only hope to dream to see in real life if you're a snow weenie. I just hope it holds thru at least the first week or two of December (the longer the better obviously).

Historically, non-La Nina years with big Scandinavian highs/-NAOs in November generally hold a favorable configuration in December & January.

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Looks like the JMA for February already lol. Hey, I’ll take it.

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Webberweather53 said:
Good lord 2.0...
These are the kind of patterns you only hope to dream to see in real life if you're a snow weenie. I just hope it holds thru at least the first week or two of December (the longer the better obviously).

Historically, non-La Nina years with big Scandinavian highs/-NAOs in November generally hold a favorable configuration in December & January.

View attachment 7402
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Looks like a setup for overrunning event if I see it correctly. Nothing sharp for a Miller A, but one is possible still. With a lower jet stream storms would ride by with cold overhead. If only we could maintain such a setup for weeks then we could get an epic winter, but that's dreaming.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Good lord 2.0...
These are the kind of patterns you only hope to dream to see in real life if you're a snow weenie. I just hope it holds thru at least the first week or two of December (the longer the better obviously).

Historically, non-La Nina years with big Scandinavian highs/-NAOs in November generally hold a favorable configuration in December & January.

View attachment 7402
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Generally, patterns usually take a little longer to materialize, than modeled! And this seems like it would be a good time for that to occur!
 
Jon said:
Looks like the JMA for February already lol. Hey, I’ll take it.

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Good lord if we manage to have 3 months of this...

If we have this pattern in general at least off & on for the next 3 months I'll faint lol.

There's only one winter I'm aware of that really had the perfect concoction of north Atlantic & North Pacific high-latitude blocking & a strong subtropical jet every single month of the winter (DJF)...

It's this one.
Winter of 1935-36 NC Snowmap.png


It's actually crazy to see how similar this month is to November 1935 now that I look at it... The most well observed areas of the globe during the 30s, specifically, the North Atlantic, Europe, and NW Eurasia are a virtually perfect match. The monster Scandinavian high in November stretching into Greenland is usually a very good sign if you like high-latitude blocking for a majority of the winter because it projects onto a weaker polar vortex, much like most of the winters of the 1960s did.
compday.GNDkEHSzTK.gif

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Webberweather53 said:
Good lord if we manage to have 3 months of this...

If we have this pattern in general at least off & on for the next 3 months I'll faint lol.

There's only one winter I'm aware of that really had the perfect concoction of north Atlantic & North Pacific high-latitude blocking & a strong subtropical jet every single month of the winter (DJF)...

It's this one.
View attachment 7403


It's actually crazy to see how similar this month is to November 1935 now that I look at it... The most well observed areas of the globe during the 30s, specifically, the North Atlantic, Europe, and NW Eurasia are a virtually perfect match. The monster Scandinavian high in November stretching into Greenland is usually a very good sign if you like high-latitude blocking for a majority of the winter because it projects onto a weaker polar vortex, much like most of the winters of the 1960s did.
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Just for giggles, here's how the global SSTs stack up w/ 1935-36. It's a good or great match especially in the extratropical Pacific and Atlantic.
compday.YO1gc_nfJN (1).gif

prescomp.XIQ7raGtSA.png
 
pcbjr said:
:oops:

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I seriously doubt we'll ever see anything like that 1935-36 in my lifetime even if everything in the large-scale sense was perfect but I'd love to be proven wrong. You'll have a very hard time finding another winter that had a favorable looking global pattern every single month of the winter & at least one (or more) big dogs hit NC every single month, and to top if off featured a white Christmas & New Years. Plus it snowed in Charlotte every month from November 1935 to April 1936.
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Webberweather53 said:
I seriously doubt we'll ever see anything like that 1935-36 in my lifetime even if everything in the large-scale sense was perfect but I'd love to be proven wrong. You'll have a very hard time finding another winter that had a favorable looking global pattern every single month of the winter & at least one (or more) big dogs hit NC every single month, and to top if off featured a white Christmas & New Years. Plus it snowed in Charlotte every month from November 1935 to April 1936.
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Webb ... 100% agree (I posted the following months after to solidify/prove your point ... they are above this somewhere up there) ... :D
 
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