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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

Brick Tamland said:
Hurricane Michael came through and it's like a switch was thrown. Really feels like fall now, and looks like this winter is going to be rocking. WxSouth is really jumping on the winter hype train, too. This is his latest Facebook post.

One of several cold fronts will come through the Southeast Fri/Sat, and bring snow showers to the mountains of WV, VA and nw NC . Frost coming to KY, VA and maybe lower elevations of TN, NC as well . Then later next week, a "Split flow" develops in the Pacific and that will eventually lead to an interesting pre-Halloween storm in the central and eastern States, with a Huge dump of early Winter type of Air coming into the country. Snow cover will advance rapidly in Canada all the while. Good bye to the Southeast ridge--hopefully until next Spring, we shall see. The long range update was sent to premium subs , with hints of the Winter pattern, which look a little different than the last few Winters in the nation. We may have super amplified patterns, with "Split flow" often, which means a warm North Pole and northern Canada, but a very cold and stormy southern United States. Last few years we've had some bouts of Winter weather, but not widespread overrunning Winter weather events, and if my hunch is correct on the the 5H patterns being portrayed, we'll have quite a few of the Winter storms coming up, earlier than "normal" this time, similar to 2002 and 2009 El Nino events. Gardeners and Farmers need to prep the next few weeks for a very active few months coming up.. Warm and dry just doesn't top the list, unlike last few seasons..In fact, some remarkable Winter events are more than likely in the big "D" and heading eastbound. But we do have some decent Fall weather on tap as well.
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These hype posts are making me feel like a kid on Christmas Eve :)
 
NWS is gonna release their winter forecast tmrw morning at 11. You ever had that feeling in your gut that we were gonna have a big winter. I’ve had it a few times and it’s been right maybe it’ll hold true this year.
 
Judah Cohen posted on twitter about the PV expected to strengthen next month. I hope, if it verifies, it doesn't last too long
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
NWS is gonna release their winter forecast tmrw morning at 11. You ever had that feeling in your gut that we were gonna have a big winter. I’ve had it a few times and it’s been right maybe it’ll hold true this year.
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Bet we’re going to see lots of reds and oranges and ECs, like usual, with maybe a reluctant, thin stripe of the lightest blue somewhere along the southern or southeast zones.
 
Rain Cold said:
Lol, they are so predictable. I thought maybe, just maybe they would begrudgingly throw out a small area of blue somewhere. I should have known better.
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Yep playing it safe as always.... throw out an El Ninoish looking map and call it a day.
 
metwannabe said:
SNOWFALL OVER AREAS OF EURASIA AND ALASKA ARE CURRENTLY BELOW-NORMAL IN
MANY AREAS, BUT SNOWFALL HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE-NORMAL FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA.

Good, give me a couple of strong CAD events with that snowpack and I'll be happy
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It’ll find a way to melt by Dec/Jan
 
I’ve been looking around for moderate El Niño anomalies but all I can find in moderate-strong. Anyone have the moderate ones?
 
Sometimes I feel like I'm being trolled by mother nature. Blocking in spring, and blocking in fall. Will we see blocking in winter this time?

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Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
I’ve been looking around for moderate El Niño anomalies but all I can find in moderate-strong. Anyone have the moderate ones?
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I found a link that classified El Nino years. The years fresh in memory for me that worked out well for the southeast in general are 09/10 and 14/15 (not all areas of the southeast, but just in general). 09/10 was moderate and 14/15 was weak. Looking a little more at this webpage, a few other years pop out for me in memory based off light research I've done on memorable winter storms for the SE, but they were all strong Ninos.

(Although I'm now wondering if this link is actually correct because it also classifies 16/17 as a La Nina. Wasn't that year a strong El Nino? The 17/18 winter season was a weak La Nina.)
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I found a link that classified El Nino years. The years fresh in memory for me that worked out well for the southeast in general are 09/10 and 14/15 (not all areas of the southeast, but just in general). 09/10 was moderate and 14/15 was weak. Looking a little more at this webpage, a few other years pop out for me in memory based off light research I've done on memorable winter storms for the SE, but they were all strong Ninos.

(Although I'm now wondering if this link is actually correct because it also classifies 16/17 as a La Nina. Wasn't that year a strong El Nino? The 17/18 winter season was a weak La Nina.)
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I think it was 15/16 was the strong Nino and the 16/17 and 17/18 were both weak Nina’s
 
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