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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

Kylo said:
The UK did fairly well that winter though. +NAO, atlantic ridge, displaced GOA low, ridging in west.
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Really, right now, we have the Euro, JMA, Pioneer, and UK (and I think also the Beijing) models showing a nice winter, in some form or another, with the CFS being the outlier. I haven't heard anything about the Jammin Tech yet or the Singapore.
 
Jessy89 said:
Did anyone living close to the Tennessee/nc state line see any snow fall yesterday or last night? Headed to pigeon Forge for a night from upstate South Carolina. Some of the highest elevations have what appears to be a dusting of snow at the very top. I’m curious did anyone see it fall?
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I drove over Newfound Gap on Saturday and they had a dusting above 4000 feet. Pretty to look at but not much.
 
Rain Cold said:
Hey man, I got the Scandinavian ridging, the NAO, the Low of Aleutia and tropical forcing. I even know a little about TNHs, mountain torquing, and exponential planetary vorticity advective coriolis deviation convergence. But for the life of me, I can't figure out what a WAFz is? What that?
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WAFz is a shorthand way of saying wave activity flux, and it's useful for identifying where a group of rossby waves/mid-latitude disturbances are emitted (this can include a source of a Rossby Wave packet like a mountain range or tropical convection!), or absorbed. Wave Activity Flux (WAFz) essentially provides nice snapshot of the Rossby Waves waves or group of Rossby waves. Where these waves are absorbed or where the wave packet weakens per say is actually important in identifying regions of blocking, especially in regions of the globe where the westerlies are typically weaker
 
Webberweather53 said:
WAFz is a shorthand way of saying wave activity flux, and it's useful for identifying where a group of rossby waves/mid-latitude disturbances are emitted (this can include a source of a Rossby Wave packet like a mountain range or tropical convection!), or absorbed. Wave Activity Flux (WAFz) essentially provides nice snapshot of the Rossby Waves waves or group of Rossby waves. Where these waves are absorbed or where the wave packet weakens per say is actually important in identifying regions of blocking, especially in regions of the globe where the westerlies are typically weaker
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Ahhh, gotcha. Makes sense. I appreciate it!
 
First flakes of season east of the apps this morning have been reported. Maximized radiational cooling and cloud deck rolled in right before sunrise. Novelty stuff, now we can enjoy the ice cold rain remainder of the day.
 
Rain Cold said:
Really, right now, we have the Euro, JMA, Pioneer, and UK (and I think also the Beijing) models showing a nice winter, in some form or another, with the CFS being the outlier. I haven't heard anything about the Jammin Tech yet or the Singapore.
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I think the CFSv2 will cave soon. Already signs of it with today’s monthly run for Dec.


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NAO forecasted to fall off a cliff into negative territory by end of Nov as we head into DEC. Like record territory. If this pans out with pv getting disrupted and pna going posotive. Could be a December to Remember. Would throw a wrench possibky into some LR calling for Dec to be warmest of 3 winter months.
 
NCSNOW said:
NAO forecasted to fall off a cliff into negative territory by end of Nov as we head into DEC. Like record territory. If this pans out with pv getting disrupted and pna going posotive. Could be a December to Remember. Would throw a wrench possibky into some LR calling for Dec to be warmest of 3 winter months.
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PNA seems to go neutral and AO goes negative as well. Have to see where this all leads and if ultimately it verifies. The -NAO is always that one feature that seems to get away from us as verification approaches.
 
NCSNOW said:
NAO forecasted to fall off a cliff into negative territory by end of Nov as we head into DEC. Like record territory. If this pans out with pv getting disrupted and pna going posotive. Could be a December to Remember. Would throw a wrench possibky into some LR calling for Dec to be warmest of 3 winter months.
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Sounds like our chance for a white Christmas just went from .025% to .05%..I’ll take those odds
 
The last 3 out of 4 non-super NINO winters have looked virtually identical globally and especially in/around North America, wouldn't shock me if this winter also followed the same general look maybe w/ a touch more -NAO.
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Jon said:
I think the CFSv2 will cave soon. Already signs of it with today’s monthly run for Dec.


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The CFSv2 has caved.

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Jon said:
The CFSv2 has caved.

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Wow, that is awesome if we can nail a big dog in a December of an El Nino that's money in the bank. January & February are usually even better & in most NINOs w/ a "nice" storm in December (including but not limited to 1896-97, 1904-05, 1930-31, 2002-03, 2009-10, etc.) more sizable storms followed it up later in the winter. Bring it on.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Wow, that is awesome if we can nail a big dog in a December of an El Nino that's money in the bank. January & February are usually even better & in most NINOs w/ a "nice" storm in December (including but not limited to 1896-97, 1904-05, 1930-31, 2002-03, 2009-10, etc.) more sizable storms followed it up later in the winter. Bring it on.
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If Web is happy, I am VERY HAPPY!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Wow, that is awesome if we can nail a big dog in a December of an El Nino that's money in the bank. January & February are usually even better & in most NINOs w/ a "nice" storm in December (including but not limited to 1896-97, 1904-05, 1930-31, 2002-03, 2009-10, etc.) more sizable storms followed it up later in the winter. Bring it on.
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The Greenland blocking high forecast to develop on the Euro next week is an absolute beast and just a classic evolution generally speaking w/ a Scandinavian block retrograding west towards Greenland, harkens back to classical wave dynamics where huge rossby waves retrograde westward against the background flow due to planetary vorticity advection that's created by a difference in f (the coriolis parameter) w/ latitude. Eventually this block will become a west-based -NAO as upstream cyclonic wave breaking continues to reinforce it against diffusion and radiative changes (high heights imply warmer temperatures via hypsometric equation, warmer air will radiate more heat away to space, which actually weakens the blocking ridge unless there are other forcing mechanisms maintaining it which there are here)
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The EPS is consistently trying to go for the jackpot pattern in our neck of the woods near the end of November into early December w/ +PNA, high-latitude north Pacific and North Atlantic blocking, coupled to an active subtropical jet, you really can't ask for much more other than an actual storm obviously.

I would willingly roll the dice and take my chances every single time w/ a pattern like this even if it's on the edge of our most favorable snow climo.
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Webberweather53 said:
The EPS is consistently trying to go for the jackpot pattern in our neck of the woods near the end of November into early December w/ +PNA, high-latitude north Pacific and North Atlantic blocking, coupled to an active subtropical jet, you really can't ask for much more other than an actual storm obviously.

I would willingly roll the dice and take my chances every single time w/ a pattern like this even if it's on the edge of our most favorable snow climo.
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Low heights in the Atlantic. How does that work again. :)
 
Webberweather53 said:
The EPS is consistently trying to go for the jackpot pattern in our neck of the woods near the end of November into early December w/ +PNA, high-latitude north Pacific and North Atlantic blocking, coupled to an active subtropical jet, you really can't ask for much more other than an actual storm obviously.

I would willingly roll the dice and take my chances every single time w/ a pattern like this even if it's on the edge of our most favorable snow climo.
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I’ll Take a Dec 2002 redux, all day everyday! This little Thursday CAD, may just be the appetizer!
 
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