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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

So it now appears that our current cold shot could just be the preview of an amazing winter beginning at the end of the month?
 
Webberweather53 said:
To elaborate slightly more on an earlier tweet, tne thing to note here is the Scandinavian high at least in the EPS is undergoing more rapid retrogression towards Greenland in the extended range, which says a lot about the amplitude of the ridge in the model even when you consider how spread increases w/ time in an ensemble suite. Larger/stronger Rossby Waves undergo more planetary vorticity advection, thus retrograde more vehemently while at the same time, the background flow might be turning more easterly (if the amplitude of the high doesn't change) which is also more favorable for blocking. Point being, in either case, although the look on the EPS seems fantastic in the longer range (& rightfully so), what I'm arguing is that we're actually trending towards an even better pattern!

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The trend has continued on this morning's run, the block retrogrades more quickly again is indicative of either it's getting stronger in the guidance despite even when you account for spread or the background flow is becoming more easterly. Either way, I really, really, really like where we are headed. We seem poised to end up w/ a coveted west-based -NAO after Thanksgiving & beyond as this block continues to retrograde, coupled with North Pacific blocking, a +PNA, & -AO as we close out November with a strong subtropical jet to boot, it's hard not to get excited in a pattern like this even if it's the end of November/early December. The fact that it's already snowed in places like Birmingham, Houston, central Louisiana, etc. in mid-November showcases that we are clearly more than capable of producing a winter storm for much of the board given a better pattern w/ more favorable climo like what's forecasted to occur in the longer term. Only time will tell tho!

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_fh144_trend (1).gif
 
The upcoming pattern looks great and we may have a great opportunity to get on the board early this winter instead of waiting until late Jan/Feb like some El-Nino years. That being said, I'm slightly apprehensive of a major ice storm like we had in December of 2002 that I hear tossed around as an analog. Is the potential for a major ice storm a concern for anyone else? My wife cringes at any mention of ice. The week without power in 2002 has scarred her for life!
 
I may be out of a job come end of the year so an awesome winter would be appropriate. I do have a new chain saw and an old 4x4 pickup so maybe a bunch of snow and ice will let me start a new one, cleaning up the mess..
 
packfan98 said:
The upcoming pattern looks great and we may have a great opportunity to get on the board early this winter instead of waiting until late Jan/Feb like some El-Nino years. That being said, I'm slightly apprehensive of a major ice storm like we had in December of 2002 that I hear tossed around as an analog. Is the potential for a major ice storm a concern for anyone else? My wife cringes at any mention of ice. The week without power in 2002 has scarred her for life!
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Been thinkng the same thing about enhanced chances for ice and mixed bag events this year. Dec 2002 , I dont know if we could ever duplicate that catastrophe again. We where ground zero and that is as bad as it can get . Inch and half of rain with surface temps 22-23. Our whole county (100%) lost power, no exaggeration. as you know first hand.
 
The 6z GEFS looks awesome as far as pattern goes. However temps do not. Now I'm sure if it plays out the models will trend colder, but I'm still apprehensive.
 
Arcc said:
The 6z GEFS looks awesome as far as pattern goes. However temps do not. Now I'm sure if it plays out the models will trend colder, but I'm still apprehensive.
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Usually when a block transitions from Scandinavia to Greenland there’s a bit of a delay in cold air and the pattern over the US might not be cold throughout the transition. Don’t be surprised to see some weird ridge action over the conus.
 
Really excited after reading all the good news regarding the pattern the models are showing. LIke Webber said, it might not last all the time from December through February, but even if it is on and off all winter, that would still most likely give us lots of storm chances, and a chance of above normal snowfall.
 
Jon said:
Usually when a block transitions from Scandinavia to Greenland there’s a bit of a delay in cold air and the pattern over the US might not be cold throughout the transition. Don’t be surprised to see some weird ridge action over the conus.
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Good to know. TBH not used to having a -NAO and how it acts in winter. Haha
 
Time to start watching the last few days of Nov.1st week of December for would should be a promising opportunity. Thanksgiving weekend may be able to produce a novelity CAD event if we can get some moisture, but the time frame to be zeroing in on is 11/28-12/6. All indications are for a near perfect pattern to be entrenched by that point, so we shall see.

prateptype_cat.conus.png
 
Yeah, trying to hold my excitement. Seeing the temperatures not getting very cold and the fact that it's still November is keeping me in check. Plus, this is some long range pattern stuff. I've got to put a pause on myself for the next couple weeks to see if this pattern actually shows up. By that time hopefully we'll see some real cold on the horizon.

But Webb's family guy gif was great. That's how I was when I looked at the long range. lol.
 
NCSNOW said:
Time to start watching the last few days of Nov.1st week of December for would should be a promising opportunity. Thanksgiving weekend may be able to produce a novelity CAD event if we can get some moisture, but the time frame to be zeroing in on is 11/28-12/6. All indications are for a near perfect pattern to be entrenched by that point, so we shall see.

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Still not an overly cold airmass . But Jon says there will be some lag time so all we can do it wait and see


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Storm5 said:
Still not an overly cold airmass . But Jon says there will be some lag time so all we can do it wait and see


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If that were to pan out, we could probably make that work. Crazy similar to last December at 500mb.
 
Both GFS and FV3 have another ULL traversing the SE in 8 days. It will too warm, but if we get the -NAO to lock in, what a look that will be in a month or so. The NW to SE movement is obvious.

Edit: would be a smasher with cold air.
 
Arcc said:
Both GFS and FV3 have another ULL traversing the SE in 8 days. It will too warm, but if we get the -NAO to lock in, what a look that will be in a month or so. The NW to SE movement is obvious.

Edit: would be a smasher with cold air.
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It's close verbatim but who knows, we should have plenty more of these where they came from throughout the course of the winter.
gfs_mslpaNorm_us_37.png
 
I like the -NAO stuff, it the Pacific looks rather unremarkable at the end of the model runs. That needs to get in line if we want a good winter storm this early in the season.
 
Rain Cold said:
I like the -NAO stuff, it the Pacific looks rather unremarkable at the end of the model runs. That needs to get in line if we want a good winter storm this early in the season.
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I don't think we'll ever get everything to set up perfectly. Just have to get it set up good enough.
 
Rain Cold said:
I like the -NAO stuff, it the Pacific looks rather unremarkable at the end of the model runs. That needs to get in line if we want a good winter storm this early in the season.
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There's more than enough North Pacific blocking on the GEFS, the EPS keeps the heights lower over Alaska and eastern Siberia. However, it completely whiffed on the -EPO that's currently ongoing until we were several days out.
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I feel like the upcoming pattern if it verifies is more than enough for a winter storm. As others have said, I feel excited for the late Nov/early Dec periodm

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Webberweather53 said:
There's more than enough North Pacific blocking on the GEFS, the EPS keeps the heights lower over Alaska and eastern Siberia. However, it completely whiffed on the -EPO that's currently ongoing until we were several days out.
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Good point. I'm noticing a parade of storm systems rolling into the Aleutians and into the GOA. As long as they rotate north from there, we may be ok. But if we get wound up systems in the GOA or crashing into the west coast, that is probably not a good signal for cold air transport. I am also not very fond of the trough signature in the SW. If that is simply the result of the STJ, and the -NAO is strong enough to keep things suppressed, then fine. But I've seen that signature in recent years, and it's not the best for our area. Granted, we haven't had a strong west-based -NAO, so we'll see. So far, I'm not seeing a lot of deep cold air penetrating into the SE in the extended, from the deterministic models on a consistent basis. Below normal, yes. But we need a good transport in from the source region, especially this time of year. Maybe it's just a lag, as noted above. I'll feel better seeing the north pac get into shape, though.
 
Kylo said:
A -NAO appeared for about 10 days, but with hostile pac. Also, no super duper Scandinavian ridge that preceded it.

I do recall at the end of last January this perfect pattern that was being modeled and that went up in smoke just like our temps for February.

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Do Scandinavian blocks usually have more staying power? Last year the AO tanked which is a big reason I think we saw the early snow.
 
Last winter sucked! Charleston got more snow out of one storm , than most of the SE got all winter! I think Savannah got more snow and ice than mby!? The after Christmas coldsnap, was pretty epic though! I love cold and dry!:cool:
 
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