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Pattern November Knock-Out

GeorgiaGirl said:
Like here's an example comparison of La Fayette and Augusta (through KCHA and what I remember with Christmas 2010, 13/14, and 14/15, but there's no major station with La Fayette so I have no choice) starting from the winter of 09/10 through 16/17:

09/10: La Fayette: January 29th, 2010, February 12th, 2010, March 2nd, 2010.
Augusta: February 12th, 2010
Overall Total: The same, 8 inches, but with Augusta it was through boom/bust.
10/11: La Fayette: December 25th, 2010, January 10th, 2011, February 9th, 2011
Augusta: December 26th, 2010, January 10th, 2011, February 9th, 2011
Overall Total: La Fayette: 13 inches Augusta: 3 inches
11/12: Warm winter, so no surprise....
La Fayette: Trace. Maybe. (this is where there may be some difference in having to use KCHA)
Augusta: Nothing.
12/13: Another warm winter, so no surprise....
La Fayette: Nothing.
Augusta: Nothing.
13/14: La Fayette: January 28th, 2014, February 12-13th, 2014
Augusta: January 28th, 2014, February 12th 2014 (but this was all ice so I almost didn't put it at all)
La Fayette: 9 inches
Augusta: 3 inches
14/15: La Fayette: February 25th, 2015 and a few other nickel and dime events in February.
Augusta: 0 events
La Fayette: 7.5 inches
Augusta: 0 inches
15/16: Warm winter, soooo...
La Fayette: T
Augusta: T
16/17: Another warm winter but this time...
La Fayette: T
Augusta: 0

This was for the most part a pretty nice stretch for winter weather but in this stretch...

La Fayette: 5.4 inches
Augusta: 2 inches

La Fayette had 6 significant snow events in this stretch. Augusta had 2 and the 2 might even be stretching it, it might be 1.

It's not even getting into previous research where I found, even in horrible winters earlier that this area did sometimes get nickel and dime snow events (I'm not talking about recent horrible winters). It's better than Augusta. The northeast side, even outside of the mountains may even have better odds because sometimes the TN Valley hurts winter weather wise in Northwest Georgia. I have looked into it but not hard.
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nice post
 
Storm5 said:
I'll take my chances with the day 10 CMC .

All In........... said no one
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About time to start Dumpster Fire December! Look for that elusive blocking pattern that's coming any day now! :(
 
Lord let's hope the CPC is on to something that is legal ...

sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif
 
While the 12z GFS is rolling out, I'm looking over the 0z Euro. The northern stream picks up that feature that's down in the GOM (after Thanksgiving) and brings it up off to the northeast offshore while the PV is rotating southeastern Canada filtering in that colder air. The energy that's been showing up on the models diving around the four corners towards TX, that feature has to dig, dig! It seems as if the models are trying to project a Miller A system at some point after Thanksgiving.
 
Just got around to looking at the 12z GFS. If I had to settle on a guess, at least in the deep south I think we're going to see widespread mid to high 50s Thanksgiving Day. Not as cold as this but quite the difference from the last couple of Thanksgivings.
 
12z gfs was a nice look. Euro was cold last night also
 
12z Euro is rockin' and rolling with the cold after Thanksgiving. It's starting to appear that that GOM disturbance will be gone before the deep cold air gets here, but there's still some time to keep an eye on it.
 
If we can build a good snowpack early that will keep cold blasts from moderating as much once we get into the dead of winter,


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Snow or no snow it looks like we will be around or slightly below average for a good while after tomorrow. As long as we don’t have any extended periods of above normal temps I’ll be happy. I’ve never had a near normal winter that didn’t bring a few events of snow with it. After last winter I’ll be more then happy with near normal temps and a few 1-2 inch snow events mixed in with multiple flurrie days!
 
WeatherWatch said:
12z Euro is rockin' and rolling with the cold after Thanksgiving. It's starting to appear that that GOM disturbance will be gone before the deep cold air gets here, but there's still some time to keep an eye on it.
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12z euro was extremely dry.... for us...also looks most of the heart of cold air goes east northeast. Imagine that
 
tennessee storm said:
12z euro was extremely dry.... for us...also looks most of the heart of cold air goes east northeast. Imagine that
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Lol, the heart of the cold air never comes this south. But we do get pretty cold with these blocking. I know what you mean tho.
 
tennessee storm said:
12z euro was extremely dry.... for us...also looks most of the heart of cold air goes east northeast. Imagine that
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Well for one, that is one broad tall western ridge days before Thanksgiving. I mean, there's 558/564 heights going up into SW Canada. The ridging is just too tall and broad before hand, and that's what's holding the cold back further north. Then the disturbance in the GOM heads off to the northeast before the real cold gets in place. That ridge needs to break down a good bit, but not too much, cause than it will be dry sure enough with moisture being suppressed.
 
whatalife said:
Can I wait and see what happens in December, January, and February before I buy this deal


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Absolutely. You'd be unwise not to.
I'm not Bill O'Reilly ... I just pass information along and don't "bloviate" ... LOL ... ;)
The post and link are just one more thing to consider, among many others ...
The Curmudgeon
 
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Storm5 said:
Not that it means a hill of beans cause the day 10 euro wont verify but the 12z euro brings some of the coldest anomalies across the southeast
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You just found DT's new screensaver! :)
 
Oh no, 0z GFS is bringing in the moisture further north from the disturbance from the GOM on Thanksgiving (no cold air yet). I don't want rain on Thanksgiving.
 
Crazy little warm front across AL. Temp went as low as 41 earlier. Now it sits at 56. Fired up the stove when it was cold and now I'm gonna let it burn out.
 
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