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Pattern November Knock-Out

Euro on an island all by itself!?? Call me Wilson ,cause I'm on that island
 
GaWx said:
For those wanting a chilly rest of the month, you'd better hope that the last 3 EPS runs don't verify closely as they're much warmer than the last few GEFS/GFS runs for the day 10+ period.
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Larry,
I'm going to be at best sophomoric here, if not downright fanciful ... and flippant ...
...warm up there is still cold, and pushes what was the real cold down here ... :confused::eek:o_O

Least it sounds good, and ridiculously optimistic ... :oops:
 
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pcbjr said:
Larry,
I'm going to be sophomoric here, if not down right fanciful ...
...warm up there is still cold, and pushes the cold down here ... :confused::eek:o_O
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Well, these EPS runs show literally warmer than average for the SE US days 10+. However, I personally feel that even the very warmest days in November are usually more enjoyable than the coolest days in summer. So, warm days in Nov usually don't bother me even if I prefer cooler. So, enjoy all Nov days as that is the only Nov wx you get.
 
GaWx said:
Well, these EPS runs show literally warmer than average for the SE US days 10+. However, I personally feel that even the very warmest days in November are usually more enjoyable than the coolest days in summer. So, warm days in Nov usually don't bother me even if I prefer cooler. So, enjoy all Nov days as that is the only Nov wx you get.
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You take me far too seriously on this one!
Seemed a little humor was in order!
Agree wholeheartedly; just think back a mere 365 ...
 
pcbjr said:
You take me far too seriously on this one!
Seemed a little humor was in order!
Agree wholeheartedly; just think back a mere 365 ...
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Agreed! Also, if the GEFS/GFS is right and EPS wrong, it won't be warm in late Nov.
 
Hmmm, colder and drier on the 23rd on 18z GFS...what will that mean later down the road? Stay tuned.

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Man next week looks a little warmer than what I've seen lately but boy does the hammer drop Thanksgiving on cold.
 
Oh yeah, look at those 2m temp anomalies, valid on Thanksgiving afternoon.
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SD said:
Fairly meh hard to tell if wetbulbing would be a close to wintry profile
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That would be cold enough for some sleet to mix in with the cold rain at times. I'm definitely keeping a watch on the 23rd/24th time frame for sure.

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The GEFS is predicting a sub -3 AO in a few days. That has happened in about 20% of Novembers since 1950. Here are the other Novembers with a day or more of sub -3:

2010, 2002, 2000, 1998, 1985, 1984, 1972, 1968, 1965, 1962, 1959, 1955, 1952, 1950

After throwing out El Ninos and warm neutral, we're left with these 8: 2010, 2000, 1998, 1985, 1984, 1962, 1955, 1950
Of these 8 Decembers in the SE US, 5 were very cold (2010, 2000, 1985, 1962, 1950), one was cool (1955), and 2 were quite warm (1998, 1984).

Of these 8, the closest ENSOwise to 2017 appear to be these: 2000, 1984, and 1950
Of these 3 Decembers, two were very cold (2000 and 1950) and 1 was quite warm (1984).

Conclusion: For cold 3.4 ENSO, there appears to be a small correlation between a November with a day or more of -3 AO and a quite cold Dec. in the SE US. I think it is safe to hypothesize this small correlation because the only other very cold SE Dec. with cold ENSO was 1983 and even it had a -2.510 AO day in Nov. Here's hoping.
 
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