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Pattern November Knock-Out

WeatherWatch said:
The GFS could be onto something. 6z had winter mischief mostly over the upper south and the 12z GFS also had winter mischief. Both runs had it over the 300 hour mark. The reason why I say the GFS could be onto something is because it showed winter mischief twice past 300 hours. What's the chance? Still a small chance of anything happening, but if we start to see consistency, the chances of something wintry happening goes up.

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Same data used in both runs. Nothing exciting.
Storm5 said:
Yeah the 12z GEFS post 300 is belt bursting exciting
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If the EPS is similar then sounds like a chance.
 
Storm5 said:
Belt bursting
82e2fd12b5035d71e3c588d1fff81948.jpg


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The elephant in the room is the small three digit number on the upper left of the image.
 
I took a look over the 12z EPS control and it's showing a very weak low coming about in TX after the 5th as the cold air is coming down from the north and north west. As the cold is progressing south and southeastward, it suppresses the low. We actually may have a legit "something" wintry to track soon.
 
Half of the hemispheric circulation is already favorable-very favorable for cold weather here in the southeastern US with a persistent and rather large blocking pattern over the North Atlantic (hastened by the recent -AAM propagation into the mid latitudes)
eps_z500a_5d_nh_21.png


Now, we're just waiting on the Pacific side to cooperate...
Keep in mind during a NINA with a fading westerly QBO, the mean bgd state favors a huge ridge over Alaska, the Bering Sea, and Eurasia where there's currently a big vortex... This means eventually the pattern will attempt to restore itself to this base state and another ACWB event will occur in the NE Pacific/Rockies that tries to stick a ridge in/around Alaska (which retrogrades westward w/ time). If the Greenland blocking ridge remains in place the next time this occurs (which is forecast to occur in a little over a week), then a massive arctic outbreak will subsequently ensue over the east-central US...

This is what's currently depicted on most of the guidance...

Day 1-5 North Pacific z500 (EPS)

eps_z500a_5d_npac_21.png
WQBO/NINA December North Pacific z500. Note how it's virtually the polar opposite of the front 5 days...
MWZ2MRbdCQ.png

Notice by day 10-15, the pattern is already trying to restore to this mean WQBO/NINA base state, the heights are falling over northern China, Korea, and Japan, and rising to the north over Alaska, the Bering Sea, and northeastern Eurasia... This restoration of the base state w/ help from intraseasonal forcing from the MJO, effectively helps trigger the ridge over western North America which finally shuts off the SE US ridge and sends a huge wave of arctic air plunging into the east-central US near the end of the period
eps_z500a_5d_npac_61.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Half of the hemispheric circulation is already favorable-very favorable for cold weather here in the southeastern US with a persistent and rather large blocking pattern over the North Atlantic (hastened by the recent -AAM propagation into the mid latitudes)
View attachment 1570


Now, we're just waiting on the Pacific side to cooperate...
Keep in mind during a NINA with a fading westerly QBO, the mean bgd state favors a huge ridge over Alaska, the Bering Sea, and Eurasia where there's currently a big vortex... This means eventually the pattern will attempt to restore itself to this base state and another ACWB event will occur in the NE Pacific/Rockies that tries to stick a ridge in/around Alaska (which retrogrades westward w/ time). If the Greenland blocking ridge remains in place the next time this occurs (which is forecast to occur in a little over a week), then a massive arctic outbreak will subsequently ensue over the east-central US...

This is what's currently depicted on most of the guidance...

Day 1-5 North Pacific z500 (EPS)

View attachment 1571
WQBO/NINA December North Pacific z500. Note how it's virtually the polar opposite of the front 5 days...
View attachment 1572

Notice by day 10-15, the pattern is already trying to restore to this mean WQBO/NINA base state, the heights are falling over northern China, Korea, and Japan, and rising to the north over Alaska, the Bering Sea, and northeastern Eurasia... This restoration of the base state w/ help from intraseasonal forcing from the MJO, effectively helps trigger the ridge over western North America which finally shuts off the SE US ridge and sends a huge wave of arctic air plunging into the east-central US near the end of the period
View attachment 1573
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Webb,
Remember that Santa suit for the SouthernWx party? You may wear it yet ... LOL ... :p
 
pcbjr said:
Webb,
Remember that Santa suit for the SouthernWx party? You may wear it yet ... LOL ... :p
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Lol! Yeah the big ridge in the North Pacific in the fall and early winter aids in intensifying the polar vortex by weakening this primary stratospheric conduit, seeing a big trough dominate this region for the next few weeks or so during the earlier portions of the polar vortex's seasonal evolution is at least modestly encouraging wrt delaying the almost inevitable intensification (+AO/NAO tendency) that occurs in/around February in a NINA winter.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol! Yeah the big ridge in the North Pacific in the fall and early winter aids in intensifying the polar vortex by weakening this primary stratospheric conduit, seeing a big trough dominate this region for the next few weeks or so during the earlier portions of the polar vortex's seasonal evolution is at least modestly encouraging wrt delaying the almost inevitable intensification (+AO/NAO tendency) that occurs in/around February in a NINA winter.
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Hell, Man, I was just inviting you to the party ... :cool:
But great post ... ;)
 
I know this particular solution just a LR pipe dream atm & I'll mention this only for giggles, but the 12z EPS control was just out of control after day 10 once the Pacific pattern flipped... Widespread low 20s-upper 10s in the southeastern US with blocking completely surrounding the SE US on all sides...
eps_t850a_c_noram_53.png
eps_t2min_c_nc_54.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
I know this particular solution just a LR pipe dream atm & I'll mention this only for giggles, but the 12z EPS control was just out of control after day 10 once the Pacific pattern flipped... Widespread low 20s-upper 10s in the southeastern US with blocking completely surrounding the SE US on all sides...
View attachment 1574
View attachment 1575
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I love it
8025571670ce2d523b44e8c09cef41c1.gif


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It looks like that in December KSAV is going to get its first colder than normal month in nearly two years (WAY longer than the previous longest warmer than normal month streak on record) thanks to the revenge of the analogs. Analogs are back and in good health!

Edit: There is no alliteration, but what about "December, Revenge of the Analogs" for the December thread title? Mack may not like it though.
 
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GaWx said:
It looks like that in December KSAV is going to get its first colder than normal month in nearly two years (WAY longer than the previous longest warmer than normal month streak on record) thanks to the revenge of the analogs. Analogs are back and in good health!
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Larry,
When you are good and happy, send me one of these down this away!
LOL ...
Phil
 
GaWx said:
It looks like that in December KSAV is going to get its first colder than normal month in nearly two years (WAY longer than the previous longest warmer than normal month streak on record) thanks to the revenge of the analogs. Analogs are back and in good health!

Edit: There is no alliteration, but what about "December, Revenge of the Analogs" for the December thread title? Mack may not like it though.
Click to expand...
Larry, it would be an honor to have you start a thread! And most likely bring some good mojo! Fire when ready! :)
 
Just for the fun it, the 0z GFS will have a snow storm for the southeastern US (especially for the upper south.) This is ONLY a prediction of course.
 
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